2025 Season
The TDC Rating after every week of the season
Rating by week
Team Leaders
Results
Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result / TDC line | Game score | Win chance | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | vs Western Illinois FCS | W 52–3 › | +7.9 | — | Peacock |
| 2 | Sep 6 | @ 44Duke | W 45–19 › | +31.8 | — | ESPN |
| 3 | Sep 13 | vs 67Western Michigan | W 38–0 › | +26.4 | — | FS1 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | @ 1IndianaCONF | L 10–63 › | -7.9 | — | NBC |
| 5 | Sep 27 | vs 13USCCONF | W 34–32 › | +11.0 | — | FOX |
| 6 | Oct 4 | @ 100PurdueCONF | W 43–27 › | +12.8 | — | BTN |
| 7 | Oct 11 | vs 2Ohio StateCONF | L 16–34 › | +0.4 | — | FOX |
| 8 | — | Bye | ||||
| 9 | Oct 25 | @ 17WashingtonCONF | L 25–42 › | -3.8 | — | BTN |
| 10 | Nov 1 | vs 65RutgersCONF | W 35–13 › | +19.7 | — | NBC |
| 11 | — | Bye | ||||
| 12 | Nov 15 | vs 84MarylandCONF | W 24–6 › | +12.5 | — | FS1 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | @ 72WisconsinCONF | L 10–27 › | -14.8 | — | BTN |
| 14 | Nov 29 | vs 59NorthwesternCONF | W 20–13 › | +5.9 | — | FOX |
| Bowls | Dec 30 | vs 25TennesseeNEUTRAL | W 30–28 › | +10.0 | — | ESPN |
Team Stats
Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted
| Stat | Offense | FBS rank | Defense (allowed) | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play) | ||||
| Success rate | 49.3% | 12th | 46.3% | 119th |
| Rushing success rate | 50.4% | 11th | 42.2% | 58th |
| Passing success rate | 48.2% | 14th | 49.5% | 133rd |
| Explosive run rate | 13.8% | 70th | 9.2% | 7th |
| Explosive pass rate | 11.8% | 29th | 5.9% | 4th |
| Line yards / carry | 3.21 | 43rd | 2.98 | 59th |
| Opportunity rate | 43.9% | 11th | 31.7% | 10th |
| Stuff rate | 17.3% | 72nd | 17.2% | 67th |
| Sack rate | 7.4% | 114th | 5.3% | 80th |
| 3rd-down conversion | 46.6% | 26th | 46.7% | 121st |
| Red-zone TD rate | 51.1% | 107th | 50.0% | 33rd |
| Havoc rate | 13.5% | 116th | 12.5% | 53rd |
| Box score · season totals | ||||
| Points / game | 29.4 | 63rd | 23.6 | 53rd |
| Yards / game | 373.9 | 80th | 345.1 | 46th |
| Yards / play | 5.64 | 56th | 5.13 | 47th |
| Pass yards / game | 235.8 | 60th | 205.8 | 66th |
| Yards / pass att. | 8.24 | 25th | 6.62 | 45th |
| Completion % | 67.5% | 17th | 63.6% | 94th |
| Rush yards / game | 138.1 | 89th | 126.7 | 36th |
| Yards / carry | 3.92 | 97th | 3.95 | 53rd |
| 3rd-down conv. % | 42.1% | 42nd | — | — |
| Turnovers / game (lost · forced) | 0.85 | 10th | — | — |
| Sacks / game (allowed · made) | 2.46 | 108th | 2.23 | 50th |
| Penalty yards / game | 39.5 | 16th | — | — |
Charting
Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest
Partial season. ESPN's play-by-play has throw and catch spots for 6 of this team's 13 games, so the maps and air-yard numbers cover those games only. Ranks compare teams on whatever each had charted.
Offense: where it throws168 throws charted
Defense: where it's thrown on187 throws charted
Offense: run direction198 carries
Defense: runs faced163 carries
Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.
Players
63 players who recorded a stat in 2025 (from box scores)
Final ratings for 2025, built with the same model as the current season. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. All 2025 power rankings →