FBS Power Rankings

RK▲	Team	Conf	W-L	Conf	Rating	Off	Def	SOS	Preseason	Δ	Off EPA	Def EPA	Off SR	Def SR
1	Notre Dame	Independent	6-1	—	+28.0	+13.5	+14.4	+1.4	+22.5	+5.5	0.357	-0.082	50.9%	34.5%
2	Ohio State	Big Ten	6-1	4-0	+27.8	+13.2	+14.6	+3.2	+25.7	+2.1	0.271	-0.055	50.5%	35.2%
3	Miami	ACC	6-0	4-0	+26.0	+16.9	+9.1	-5.0	+20.6	+5.4	0.443	-0.019	54.2%	36.7%
4	Indiana	Big Ten	6-1	3-1	+25.9	+11.1	+14.8	+1.9	+28.4	-2.5	0.361	-0.011	46.6%	35.3%
5	Georgia	SEC	6-1	4-1	+24.0	+13.5	+10.4	+2.1	+16.0	+8.0	0.326	0.004	53.1%	34.9%
6	LSU	SEC	5-2	2-2	+23.1	+12.4	+10.7	+3.0	+15.9	+7.2	0.250	-0.090	52.3%	32.3%
7	Alabama	SEC	5-2	3-2	+22.9	+12.9	+10.0	+10.5	+13.4	+9.5	0.264	-0.006	47.6%	37.8%
8	Utah	Big 12	6-0	3-0	+22.3	+12.7	+9.6	-2.8	+20.5	+1.8	0.296	-0.009	50.0%	34.4%
9	Texas	SEC	4-2	1-2	+21.5	+8.4	+13.1	+12.6	+20.2	+1.3	0.026	-0.010	42.7%	34.2%
10	Oregon	Big Ten	4-2	2-1	+21.2	+11.2	+10.0	+5.4	+21.4	-0.2	0.079	-0.006	40.2%	36.8%
11	Ole Miss	SEC	5-1	3-1	+20.5	+12.9	+7.6	+7.8	+20.1	+0.4	0.313	0.169	51.1%	44.2%
12	Texas Tech	Big 12	6-0	3-0	+19.3	+11.2	+8.0	-4.3	+23.1	-3.8	0.191	-0.058	48.1%	36.9%
13	Tennessee	SEC	6-1	3-1	+17.9	+8.6	+9.3	+3.1	+14.0	+3.9	0.154	-0.136	43.4%	37.0%
14	BYU	Big 12	6-0	3-0	+17.0	+7.1	+9.9	+1.8	+13.1	+3.9	0.297	-0.009	49.7%	35.4%
15	Nebraska	Big Ten	5-2	2-2	+16.9	+7.4	+9.5	-0.8	+10.1	+6.8	0.241	-0.058	44.3%	33.9%
16	UCLA	Big Ten	6-0	4-0	+15.7	+7.6	+8.1	+3.0	+6.1	+9.6	0.183	-0.154	45.6%	34.1%
17	Florida	SEC	5-2	3-2	+15.6	+11.3	+4.3	+5.9	+13.3	+2.3	0.251	0.105	45.9%	43.9%
18	Louisville	ACC	4-3	3-2	+15.4	+11.6	+3.8	+4.0	+12.6	+2.8	0.319	0.103	48.3%	41.9%
19	Auburn	SEC	4-2	2-2	+14.9	+7.1	+7.8	+8.3	+19.0	-4.1	0.095	0.033	40.8%	40.7%
20	Iowa	Big Ten	5-1	2-1	+14.8	+4.9	+9.8	-0.4	+8.7	+6.1	0.222	0.049	46.7%	36.5%
21	Missouri	SEC	5-2	2-2	+13.6	+4.5	+9.1	+3.1	+10.2	+3.4	0.174	0.011	41.2%	35.1%
22	Wake Forest	ACC	6-1	4-1	+13.5	+6.2	+7.3	+1.2	+0.7	+12.8	0.360	0.071	49.1%	41.0%
23	Oklahoma	SEC	3-3	1-2	+13.4	+3.1	+10.3	+7.5	+19.0	-5.6	-0.060	-0.108	37.6%	33.3%
24	USC	Big Ten	6-1	3-1	+13.1	+9.9	+3.2	+1.1	+13.3	-0.2	0.327	0.132	51.8%	40.1%
25	Arizona	Big 12	5-1	2-1	+12.5	+6.4	+6.1	-6.1	+10.2	+2.3	0.272	-0.040	50.3%	35.5%
26	Northwestern	Big Ten	5-1	2-1	+12.4	+6.5	+5.9	-1.2	+3.0	+9.4	0.332	0.077	50.0%	43.7%
27	Wisconsin	Big Ten	4-2	2-1	+12.4	+3.5	+8.8	+1.9	+11.7	+0.7	0.129	-0.045	38.4%	36.0%
28	Penn State	Big Ten	3-4	0-4	+11.9	+4.3	+7.6	+0.6	+17.4	-5.5	0.125	0.102	40.4%	40.2%
29	Texas A&M	SEC	4-3	1-3	+11.9	+4.0	+7.9	+0.9	+16.0	-4.1	0.109	0.015	43.4%	38.7%
30	Houston	Big 12	6-1	3-1	+11.4	+7.1	+4.3	+1.1	+0.3	+11.1	0.333	0.123	53.4%	41.9%
31	SMU	ACC	5-1	3-1	+11.2	+5.9	+5.3	-2.8	+12.9	-1.7	0.211	0.070	49.0%	37.9%
32	Kentucky	SEC	6-1	4-1	+11.1	+5.6	+5.5	+5.9	+0.7	+10.4	0.192	0.052	47.9%	44.6%
33	South Carolina	SEC	3-3	1-3	+9.8	+6.3	+3.5	+0.7	+8.5	+1.3	0.194	0.161	45.1%	41.6%
34	Virginia	ACC	4-3	2-2	+9.2	+2.1	+7.1	-2.5	+11.9	-2.7	0.232	0.093	46.9%	40.3%
35	Florida State	ACC	3-4	1-3	+9.1	+6.1	+3.0	+5.8	+9.4	-0.3	0.216	0.249	43.6%	44.5%
36	Boise State	Pac-12	5-1	2-0	+8.8	+6.5	+2.3	-3.2	+2.3	+6.5	0.326	0.070	48.9%	37.3%
37	Kansas State	Big 12	4-2	1-2	+8.5	+6.1	+2.4	-3.0	+9.6	-1.1	0.237	0.126	47.8%	36.9%
38	Kansas	Big 12	2-4	0-3	+7.9	+4.7	+3.2	-0.3	+7.4	+0.5	0.148	0.040	42.6%	37.9%
39	Oklahoma State	Big 12	4-2	2-1	+7.7	+7.5	+0.1	+0.3	-0.4	+8.1	0.164	0.098	49.3%	42.3%
40	Michigan	Big Ten	4-2	1-2	+7.7	+0.1	+7.6	+2.1	+9.7	-2.0	0.089	-0.095	41.9%	34.7%
41	TCU	Big 12	3-3	1-2	+7.3	-1.4	+8.7	-1.1	+4.4	+2.9	0.074	-0.092	41.0%	34.2%
42	Pittsburgh	ACC	5-2	2-2	+7.2	+2.9	+4.3	-3.7	+2.8	+4.4	0.130	-0.025	43.1%	34.0%
43	New Mexico	Mountain West	5-1	2-0	+6.9	+3.0	+3.9	-14.5	-3.0	+9.9	0.182	-0.182	43.1%	31.5%
44	Mississippi State	SEC	4-2	2-2	+6.9	+6.7	+0.2	+7.6	-0.7	+7.6	0.198	0.137	47.6%	46.3%
45	Iowa State	Big 12	3-3	1-2	+6.8	+3.1	+3.7	+1.0	+5.7	+1.1	0.128	0.107	39.3%	41.6%
46	Baylor	Big 12	4-2	2-1	+6.6	+1.6	+5.0	-0.7	-0.8	+7.4	0.090	-0.068	37.2%	34.9%
47	James Madison	Sun Belt	7-0	4-0	+6.5	+4.9	+1.6	-11.4	-1.8	+8.3	0.252	-0.002	45.5%	38.0%
48	Virginia Tech	ACC	5-2	2-2	+6.1	+5.4	+0.7	-6.1	+5.6	+0.5	0.227	0.095	46.1%	38.6%
49	Illinois	Big Ten	3-3	1-2	+5.8	+5.7	+0.1	-1.3	+10.5	-4.7	0.236	0.299	49.5%	46.2%
50	Duke	ACC	4-2	1-2	+5.5	+2.2	+3.3	-5.4	+2.2	+3.3	0.235	0.071	43.1%	40.7%
51	UCF	Big 12	3-3	1-2	+5.5	+0.8	+4.7	-0.9	+1.2	+4.3	0.074	0.000	40.2%	40.6%
52	Washington	Big Ten	4-3	1-3	+5.2	+1.3	+3.9	-2.1	+11.2	-6.0	0.139	0.000	43.5%	39.7%
53	North Texas	American	4-2	2-0	+4.4	+8.5	-4.2	-6.0	-1.5	+5.9	0.359	0.149	48.1%	44.3%
54	North Carolina	ACC	4-2	2-1	+4.1	+0.3	+3.8	+3.6	-7.1	+11.2	0.098	0.022	45.2%	42.6%
55	Cincinnati	Big 12	4-2	1-2	+3.8	+3.2	+0.6	-3.7	+2.9	+0.9	0.339	0.208	47.2%	45.3%
56	Colorado	Big 12	2-4	0-3	+3.5	-1.2	+4.7	+5.4	+5.7	-2.2	0.013	-0.001	39.6%	37.8%
57	Oregon State	Pac-12	5-2	3-0	+3.5	+3.5	0.0	-7.9	-15.0	+18.5	0.322	0.098	49.8%	40.7%
58	Clemson	ACC	4-2	2-1	+3.3	-2.1	+5.4	+1.9	+7.3	-4.0	-0.025	0.013	36.6%	41.5%
59	Vanderbilt	SEC	3-4	0-4	+3.0	+0.7	+2.3	+3.2	+11.9	-8.9	0.077	0.140	40.2%	43.5%
60	Memphis	American	5-2	2-1	+2.9	+3.5	-0.5	-11.0	-0.2	+3.1	0.193	0.069	49.0%	37.9%
61	Texas State	Pac-12	3-3	1-1	+2.6	+6.7	-4.1	-4.7	-1.8	+4.4	0.338	0.170	52.0%	44.9%
62	Arizona State	Big 12	3-3	1-2	+2.5	+3.9	-1.4	+0.2	+5.0	-2.5	0.053	0.134	43.6%	42.2%
63	Michigan State	Big Ten	2-5	0-4	+2.4	-0.1	+2.4	+8.0	+2.7	-0.3	0.011	0.197	43.5%	43.2%
64	NC State	ACC	3-3	1-2	+2.2	+4.1	-1.9	+0.1	+1.9	+0.3	0.195	0.207	44.1%	44.4%
65	Arkansas	SEC	3-4	1-3	+2.1	+0.6	+1.5	+6.1	+4.1	-2.0	0.055	0.196	43.4%	43.2%
66	Minnesota	Big Ten	4-2	2-1	+1.9	-1.0	+2.9	-5.0	+6.8	-4.9	0.025	0.051	41.3%	41.4%
67	Georgia Tech	ACC	2-4	1-2	+1.8	+2.0	-0.2	-1.2	+4.6	-2.8	0.203	0.215	45.3%	42.5%
68	Syracuse	ACC	2-4	0-4	+1.1	+1.1	0.0	-0.9	-3.4	+4.5	0.054	0.081	42.0%	41.9%
69	North Dakota State	Mountain West	6-1	3-1	+0.3	-2.6	+2.9	-14.7	-1.4	+1.7	0.140	-0.151	41.8%	36.2%
70	West Virginia	Big 12	4-3	1-3	-0.1	+6.7	-6.8	-0.5	-1.6	+1.5	0.189	0.288	43.4%	47.6%
71	Purdue	Big Ten	3-4	2-2	-0.2	+2.9	-3.0	+5.7	-5.4	+5.2	0.221	0.266	45.2%	47.2%
72	Army	American	4-2	3-1	-0.3	+1.0	-1.3	-9.5	-6.2	+5.9	0.324	0.208	51.9%	44.7%
73	Liberty	CUSA	5-1	2-0	-1.0	-1.9	+0.9	-14.3	-10.9	+9.9	0.185	-0.036	48.9%	33.3%
74	South Florida	American	5-2	1-2	-1.3	-2.1	+0.8	-13.6	+3.1	-4.4	0.130	0.013	47.0%	42.3%
75	UTSA	American	6-1	3-0	-1.6	+1.9	-3.4	-6.0	-4.0	+2.4	0.224	0.099	46.4%	41.7%
76	Maryland	Big Ten	2-5	0-4	-1.7	+0.2	-1.9	+3.9	+0.8	-2.5	0.040	0.154	39.4%	45.0%
77	Fresno State	Pac-12	4-3	1-2	-2.7	-2.6	-0.2	-7.7	-5.2	+2.5	0.104	0.044	40.5%	41.9%
78	UConn	Independent	3-3	—	-2.8	+0.6	-3.3	-11.0	-6.5	+3.7	0.210	0.093	44.4%	43.6%
79	Toledo	MAC	5-2	2-1	-2.9	-1.3	-1.6	-14.6	-6.3	+3.4	0.235	-0.014	44.0%	33.7%
80	Louisiana Tech	Sun Belt	4-2	2-0	-2.9	-1.2	-1.7	-5.3	-8.1	+5.2	0.148	0.037	41.8%	37.9%
81	Western Michigan	MAC	5-2	3-0	-3.3	-4.2	+0.9	-12.2	-3.9	+0.6	0.157	0.068	43.3%	42.5%
82	Tulane	American	3-3	1-1	-3.7	-6.5	+2.8	-1.8	-0.5	-3.2	0.060	0.091	32.9%	41.6%
83	Air Force	Mountain West	5-1	3-1	-4.4	-2.6	-1.8	-11.8	-9.1	+4.7	0.234	0.036	48.7%	38.0%
84	UNLV	Mountain West	4-3	2-1	-4.4	-3.4	-1.1	-5.2	-3.6	-0.8	0.089	0.072	38.3%	40.5%
85	Boston College	ACC	3-3	1-2	-4.6	-5.3	+0.7	-1.3	-4.9	+0.3	0.002	0.026	38.7%	40.4%
86	California	ACC	3-4	2-2	-4.9	-1.0	-3.9	+0.8	+0.8	-5.7	-0.034	0.148	37.5%	39.1%
87	East Carolina	American	3-3	1-1	-5.2	-4.6	-0.5	-9.5	-0.6	-4.6	0.027	-0.024	38.8%	33.6%
88	Ohio	MAC	5-2	3-0	-5.2	-3.2	-2.0	-14.1	-8.9	+3.7	0.225	0.139	48.5%	41.2%
89	Louisiana	Sun Belt	5-2	2-1	-5.5	-4.5	-1.0	-11.2	-15.0	+9.5	0.123	-0.028	42.8%	41.7%
90	Navy	American	2-4	1-3	-5.8	-3.4	-2.4	-10.9	-7.9	+2.1	0.228	0.135	47.7%	37.5%
91	Tulsa	American	4-3	1-2	-6.3	-3.7	-2.7	-7.6	-13.9	+7.6	0.157	0.051	39.2%	41.1%
92	Rutgers	Big Ten	2-4	1-2	-6.5	+1.0	-7.5	-2.6	-3.3	-3.2	0.160	0.259	46.9%	47.8%
93	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt	3-4	2-1	-6.9	-4.5	-2.4	-5.9	-15.5	+8.6	0.150	0.073	44.5%	39.4%
94	Utah State	Pac-12	2-4	1-1	-7.3	-7.3	0.0	-2.0	-4.7	-2.6	-0.065	0.057	35.4%	39.5%
95	Washington State	Pac-12	1-6	0-3	-7.3	-5.9	-1.4	-1.5	-3.7	-3.6	-0.041	0.114	34.4%	41.4%
96	Miami (OH)	MAC	4-3	2-1	-8.4	-4.8	-3.6	-11.2	-8.8	+0.4	0.184	0.106	40.9%	41.4%
97	Jacksonville State	CUSA	5-2	3-0	-8.8	-3.0	-5.7	-12.1	-10.4	+1.6	0.178	0.096	47.0%	42.1%
98	San Diego State	Pac-12	3-4	2-1	-8.8	-4.9	-3.9	-1.0	-0.7	-8.1	-0.054	0.124	34.2%	47.0%
99	Georgia State	Sun Belt	4-2	1-1	-9.0	-0.6	-8.3	-10.0	-24.2	+15.2	0.239	0.049	48.2%	38.3%
100	Florida Atlantic	American	4-2	1-1	-9.5	-1.1	-8.4	-9.8	-11.9	+2.4	0.235	0.249	47.1%	42.5%
101	Temple	American	2-5	1-2	-9.9	-3.4	-6.4	-7.0	-11.5	+1.6	0.213	0.210	43.4%	46.0%
102	South Alabama	Sun Belt	4-3	2-1	-10.3	+0.1	-10.4	-11.0	-13.7	+3.4	0.192	0.242	42.2%	51.0%
103	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	3-4	1-2	-10.3	-3.4	-6.8	-9.1	-14.2	+3.9	0.134	0.149	47.0%	44.9%
104	Stanford	ACC	3-4	1-3	-10.6	-6.1	-4.5	+4.4	-5.1	-5.5	0.151	0.312	39.1%	46.5%
105	App State	Sun Belt	4-2	1-1	-10.7	-5.5	-5.2	-13.5	-18.2	+7.5	0.111	0.062	41.5%	41.9%
106	Nevada	Mountain West	2-4	1-2	-10.8	-7.3	-3.4	-15.2	-15.2	+4.4	0.068	0.116	39.9%	38.6%
107	Old Dominion	Sun Belt	2-5	1-3	-10.8	-10.1	-0.7	-7.0	-2.3	-8.5	-0.148	-0.016	31.2%	37.6%
108	Troy	Sun Belt	3-3	1-1	-11.1	-5.7	-5.4	-10.5	-13.3	+2.2	0.095	0.074	41.8%	41.2%
109	Delaware	CUSA	3-4	1-2	-11.2	-3.2	-8.0	-9.6	-11.4	+0.2	0.186	0.159	42.7%	44.4%
110	Kennesaw State	CUSA	1-5	0-2	-11.4	-8.9	-2.6	-9.3	-13.7	+2.3	0.108	0.150	43.5%	44.6%
111	Western Kentucky	CUSA	3-4	2-1	-12.1	-6.7	-5.4	-5.4	-8.7	-3.4	0.013	0.118	36.5%	39.8%
112	Florida International	CUSA	3-4	1-2	-12.6	-10.8	-1.8	-14.5	-13.2	+0.6	0.025	0.005	39.7%	37.1%
113	Marshall	Sun Belt	4-3	1-2	-13.1	-5.7	-7.4	-10.0	-5.4	-7.7	0.152	0.254	45.6%	43.5%
114	Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	2-5	1-2	-13.4	-6.0	-7.4	-10.4	-14.7	+1.3	0.134	0.159	40.5%	46.9%
115	UAB	American	4-3	2-1	-13.6	-7.2	-6.4	-9.0	-17.0	+3.4	0.037	0.018	41.5%	43.4%
116	Colorado State	Pac-12	2-4	0-2	-13.8	-0.6	-13.1	-4.1	-13.5	-0.3	0.282	0.355	45.4%	55.2%
117	New Mexico State	CUSA	2-4	1-1	-14.3	-8.1	-6.3	-8.8	-17.9	+3.6	-0.022	0.067	38.7%	40.5%
118	Hawai'i	Mountain West	1-6	0-4	-14.5	-9.8	-4.7	-7.5	-9.4	-5.1	0.006	0.189	38.8%	44.6%
119	Rice	American	1-6	0-3	-15.1	-9.9	-5.2	-3.0	-16.1	+1.0	-0.019	0.127	39.4%	40.9%
120	Central Michigan	MAC	3-4	1-2	-15.6	-9.9	-5.6	-5.9	-13.9	-1.7	0.048	0.221	39.7%	47.8%
121	Missouri State	CUSA	2-5	1-2	-16.0	-5.8	-10.3	-7.8	-14.5	-1.5	0.078	0.274	42.1%	49.0%
122	San José State	Mountain West	4-3	2-1	-16.0	-10.1	-6.0	-13.3	-21.5	+5.5	0.117	0.070	39.9%	42.5%
123	Wyoming	Mountain West	4-3	3-1	-16.3	-11.4	-4.9	-15.6	-14.8	-1.5	0.110	0.140	45.8%	44.0%
124	Eastern Michigan	MAC	4-4	3-1	-16.7	-9.5	-7.2	-12.6	-14.3	-2.4	0.044	0.136	39.7%	42.7%
125	Sam Houston	CUSA	1-5	0-2	-16.9	-10.5	-6.4	-6.9	-21.7	+4.8	-0.028	0.106	39.1%	39.7%
126	Southern Miss	Sun Belt	1-5	0-2	-17.1	-8.0	-9.0	-7.1	-20.2	+3.1	0.032	0.209	41.8%	43.5%
127	Bowling Green	MAC	2-5	2-1	-18.3	-12.1	-6.1	-9.4	-15.8	-2.5	-0.012	0.158	40.3%	46.6%
128	Buffalo	MAC	4-3	2-1	-18.5	-11.0	-7.5	-12.1	-19.5	+1.0	0.017	0.081	35.2%	37.9%
129	Massachusetts	MAC	4-3	1-3	-18.6	-10.8	-7.8	-19.8	-32.6	+14.0	0.161	-0.043	43.3%	38.7%
130	Middle Tennessee	CUSA	4-3	2-1	-19.1	-9.7	-9.4	-11.2	-23.2	+4.1	0.154	0.150	41.0%	45.9%
131	Akron	MAC	1-6	0-3	-19.9	-9.1	-10.8	-8.5	-18.8	-1.1	0.038	0.234	39.7%	44.4%
132	Northern Illinois	Mountain West	0-6	0-2	-20.1	-10.6	-9.5	-5.4	-17.2	-2.9	-0.056	0.295	38.2%	51.4%
133	Ball State	MAC	2-5	1-2	-21.1	-9.0	-12.1	-4.9	-25.2	+4.1	0.101	0.288	38.5%	44.5%
134	Kent State	MAC	2-5	1-2	-22.7	-13.2	-9.6	-3.3	-23.4	+0.7	-0.039	0.100	34.5%	45.1%
135	Charlotte	American	1-6	1-2	-23.9	-10.7	-13.1	-4.0	-21.5	-2.4	-0.023	0.246	37.8%	48.4%
136	UL Monroe	Sun Belt	0-6	0-2	-25.8	-12.8	-12.9	-9.9	-21.4	-4.4	-0.064	0.280	41.6%	49.1%
137	UTEP	Mountain West	1-6	0-3	-26.1	-12.8	-13.2	-3.6	-23.9	-2.2	-0.085	0.285	33.9%	48.9%
138	Sacramento State	MAC	1-6	0-4	-28.6	-14.9	-13.7	-13.0	-19.5	-9.1	-0.113	0.191	38.4%	40.6%

How the rating works. Each game's points are modelled as offense against the opposing defense, with 3.8 points of home field solved from the data. A game counts 70% on the final score and 30% on the score its play-by-play says it should have been (success rate, yards per play, explosive plays, turnovers; garbage time dropped), which takes some of the luck out. Every FCS opponent gets its own rating from its own games. The preseason rating projects each team from its last two seasons, how much production returns (the quarterback most of all) and what transfers bring in, and it fades as games are played. Tested week by week on every game since 2019, predicting each week from only the games before it, the spread misses the final margin by 12.6 points on average. The closing betting line misses by 12.2.