2026 Season · 513 games in

Award Projections

Who's on track to win college football's biggest awards, updated after every game day.

Heisman Trophy

Chance to win, from our model of every Heisman vote since 2014

Darian MensahQB · JR · Miami #3 (6-0)33%6 G · 1764 pass yds, 18 TD, 1 INT; 85 rush yds, 2 TD

Gio LopezQB · JR · Wake Forest #22 (6-1)14%7 G · 1947 pass yds, 17 TD, 1 INT; 253 rush yds, 6 TD

Conner WeigmanQB · Houston (6-1)8.2%7 G · 1770 pass yds, 20 TD, 2 INT; 229 rush yds, 6 TD

CJ CarrQB · JR · Notre Dame #1 (6-1)6.6%7 G · 1639 pass yds, 16 TD, 1 INT; 82 rush yds, 3 TD

Josh HooverQB · SR · Indiana #4 (6-1)5.4%7 G · 1660 pass yds, 18 TD, 0 INT; 45 rush yds, 1 TD

Braden AtkinsonQB · SO · Oregon State (5-2)5.2%7 G · 2606 pass yds, 24 TD, 2 INT; 1 rush yds, 2 TD

Jeremiah SmithWR · JR · Ohio State #2 (6-1)4.6%7 G · 52 rec, 984 yds, 12 TD

Michael Hawkins Jr.QB · SO · West Virginia (4-3)3.2%7 G · 1519 pass yds, 10 TD, 1 INT; 749 rush yds, 14 TD

Wayshawn ParkerRB · JR · Utah #8 (6-0)3.1%6 G · 597 rush yds, 7 TD; 19 rec, 201 yds, 4 TD

Malachi ToneyWR · Miami #3 (6-0)2.3%6 G · 50 rec, 758 yds, 8 TD

Wayne KnightRB · SR · UCLA #16 (6-0)2.2%6 G · 571 rush yds, 11 TD; 14 rec, 106 yds, 1 TD

Bear BachmeierQB · SO · BYU #14 (6-0)1.7%6 G · 1257 pass yds, 9 TD, 2 INT; 284 rush yds, 6 TD

How it works. A model trained on the 2014–2025 races learned what Heisman voters reward: passing and total touchdowns, yards, few interceptions, a full season, a winning power-conference team high in the rankings. Tested on each season it didn't train on, it picked the eventual winner first in 8 of 12 years and in its top three in 10 (it can't see a two-way season like Travis Hunter's). For this season, each contender's remaining games are simulated 1,500 times around his current pace, with his team's record drawn from our record odds, and the odds are spread out early in the year, when most of the race is still to be played.

Davey O'Brien AwardBest quarterback · chance to win

Braden AtkinsonQB · SO · Oregon State (5-2)28%2606 pass yds, 24 TD, 2 INT; 1 rush yds, 2 TD

Darian MensahQB · JR · Miami #3 (6-0)25%1764 pass yds, 18 TD, 1 INT; 85 rush yds, 2 TD

Josh HooverQB · SR · Indiana #4 (6-1)7%1660 pass yds, 18 TD, 0 INT; 45 rush yds, 1 TD

Gio LopezQB · JR · Wake Forest #22 (6-1)6%1947 pass yds, 17 TD, 1 INT; 253 rush yds, 6 TD

Conner WeigmanQB · Houston (6-1)5%1770 pass yds, 20 TD, 2 INT; 229 rush yds, 6 TD

Julian SayinQB · JR · Ohio State #2 (6-1)4%2007 pass yds, 19 TD, 4 INT; -9 rush yds, 2 TD

CJ CarrQB · JR · Notre Dame #1 (6-1)4%1639 pass yds, 16 TD, 1 INT; 82 rush yds, 3 TD

Mason HeintschelQB · SO · Pittsburgh (5-2)4%1304 pass yds, 14 TD, 1 INT; 112 rush yds, 1 TD

Doak Walker AwardBest running back · chance to win

Nate SheppardRB · SO · Duke (4-2)32%820 rush yds, 8 TD; 28 rec, 259 yds, 4 TD

Jadan BaughRB · JR · Florida #17 (5-2)12%763 rush yds, 13 TD; 9 rec, 59 yds, 0 TD

Dylan RileyRB · JR · Boise State (5-1)10%835 rush yds, 6 TD; 11 rec, 120 yds, 1 TD

Jahiem WhiteRB · SR · North Texas (4-2)10%676 rush yds, 9 TD; 23 rec, 192 yds, 2 TD

Wayne KnightRB · SR · UCLA #16 (6-0)8%571 rush yds, 11 TD; 14 rec, 106 yds, 1 TD

DeSean BishopRB · JR · Tennessee #13 (6-1)7%837 rush yds, 10 TD; 8 rec, 54 yds, 0 TD

Wayshawn ParkerRB · JR · Utah #8 (6-0)5%597 rush yds, 7 TD; 19 rec, 201 yds, 4 TD

Jamal RobertsRB · SR · Missouri #21 (5-2)4%867 rush yds, 8 TD; 13 rec, 105 yds, 0 TD

Biletnikoff AwardBest receiver · chance to win

Jesse LegreeWR · FR · Oregon State (5-2)49%46 rec, 1040 yds, 14 TD

Jeremiah SmithWR · JR · Ohio State #2 (6-1)44%52 rec, 984 yds, 12 TD

Malachi ToneyWR · Miami #3 (6-0)5%50 rec, 758 yds, 8 TD

Umari HatcherWR · SR · Syracuse (2-4)1%50 rec, 784 yds, 7 TD

KJ DuffWR · JR · Rutgers (2-4)1%42 rec, 741 yds, 9 TD

Collin DixonWR · SR · Illinois (3-3)0%47 rec, 608 yds, 9 TD

Anthony Evans IIIWR · SR · Mississippi State (4-2)0%47 rec, 614 yds, 5 TD

Reed HarrisWR · SR · Arizona State (3-3)0%41 rec, 653 yds, 8 TD

John Mackey AwardBest tight end · chance to win

Patrick OvermyerTE · SR · Houston (6-1)64%38 rec, 431 yds, 7 TD

Luke ReynoldsTE · JR · Virginia Tech (5-2)17%43 rec, 449 yds, 4 TD

Kari AshleyTE · SR · TCU (3-3)7%29 rec, 392 yds, 4 TD

Trey'Dez GreenTE · JR · LSU #6 (5-2)3%14 rec, 222 yds, 1 TD

Eli FinleyTE · SR · Louisiana Tech (4-2)2%29 rec, 334 yds, 4 TD

Rocky BeersTE · SR · Oklahoma #23 (3-3)2%26 rec, 329 yds, 3 TD

Jelani ThurmanTE · JR · North Carolina (4-2)1%26 rec, 314 yds, 4 TD

Hunter TiptonTE · SR · Memphis (5-2)1%22 rec, 380 yds, 5 TD

Butkus AwardBest linebacker · chance to win

Elijah MelendezLB · SO · Auburn #19 (4-2)21%52 tkl, 9 TFL, 4 sacks, 1 INT, 6 PD

Tony RojasLB · JR · Penn State (3-4)12%56 tkl, 10.5 TFL, 5 sacks, 2 INT, 4 PD

Alonzo Jackson Jr.LB · SO · Louisiana Tech (4-2)10%42 tkl, 10 TFL, 5 sacks, 1 INT, 3 PD

Braydon BrusLB · SR · Northwestern (5-1)7%52 tkl, 9.5 TFL, 3 sacks, 1 INT, 3 PD

Xavier EsqillionLB · SR · Georgia State (4-2)4%21 tkl, 9.5 TFL, 7 sacks, 0 INT, 1 PD

Xavier AtkinsLB · JR · Auburn #19 (4-2)3%37 tkl, 7.5 TFL, 3 sacks, 1 INT, 1 PD

Michael MolnarLB · SR · Ohio (5-2)3%53 tkl, 8.5 TFL, 4 sacks, 1 INT, 4 PD

Takari HickleLB · SR · Oregon State (5-2)3%38 tkl, 10.5 TFL, 6 sacks

Jim Thorpe AwardBest defensive back · chance to win

Brent Gordon Jr.CB · SO · Louisiana (5-2)19%42 tkl, 4.5 TFL, 0 sacks, 2 INT, 12 PD

Braden TurnerDB · Northwestern (5-1)9%20 tkl, 2 TFL, 0 sacks, 1 INT, 5 PD

Jones ThomasS · Wyoming (4-3)7%50 tkl, 1 TFL, 0 sacks, 2 INT, 11 PD

Kaleb BeasleyDB · JR · Louisville #18 (4-3)6%49 tkl, 2 TFL, 0 sacks, 5 INT, 8 PD

Jordan CastellDB · SR · Kentucky (6-1)4%57 tkl, 2 TFL, 0 sacks, 4 INT, 7 PD

Jayden SandersCB · SO · Notre Dame #1 (6-1)3%

Ashton HamptonCB · JR · Clemson (4-2)2%19 tkl, 2 TFL, 0 sacks, 1 INT, 10 PD

TJ MageeCB · SR · Massachusetts (4-3)2%22 tkl, 0 TFL, 0 sacks, 1 INT, 8 PD

Bronko Nagurski TrophyBest defensive player · chance to win

Colin SimmonsEDGE · JR · Texas #9 (4-2)59%24 tkl, 15.5 TFL, 10 sacks

Xavier LewisDL · SO · North Carolina (4-2)10%31 tkl, 10 TFL, 7 sacks, 0 INT, 1 PD

Andrew ZockDE · Toledo (5-2)6%41 tkl, 10 TFL, 7 sacks

Elijah MelendezLB · SO · Auburn #19 (4-2)3%52 tkl, 9 TFL, 4 sacks, 1 INT, 6 PD

Tony RojasLB · JR · Penn State (3-4)2%56 tkl, 10.5 TFL, 5 sacks, 2 INT, 4 PD

Tobi OsunsanmiDL · SR · Indiana #4 (6-1)2%27 tkl, 11.5 TFL, 7 sacks

Princewill UmanmielenDE · LSU #6 (5-2)2%28 tkl, 11.5 TFL, 8 sacks

Xavier EsqillionLB · SR · Georgia State (4-2)2%21 tkl, 9.5 TFL, 7 sacks, 0 INT, 1 PD

Lou Groza AwardBest place-kicker · chance to win

Nolan HauserPK · JR · Clemson (4-2)21%15/16 FG, long 59

Jonah DelangePK · SR · UAB (4-3)12%17/19 FG, long 57

Connor CalvertPK · SO · Wake Forest #22 (6-1)8%10/11 FG, long 44

Sam KeltnerPK · SO · Oklahoma State (4-2)6%13/13 FG, long 47

Spencer PorathPK · JR · Notre Dame #1 (6-1)6%10/11 FG, long 52

Luis RodriguezPK · JR · Kansas State (4-2)5%10/10 FG, long 51

Luke DrzewieckiPK · SR · Minnesota (4-2)4%10/10 FG, long 51

Samer LayousPK · SO · Georgia State (4-2)4%8/8 FG, long 49

Ray Guy AwardBest punter · chance to win

Will KarollP · SR · Texas Tech #12 (6-0)38%50.8 yds/punt, 10 inside 20

Daniel SparksP · Virginia (4-3)21%50.3 yds/punt, 15 inside 20

Rhys DakinP · JR · Michigan State (2-5)13%51.0 yds/punt, 7 inside 20

Lachlan CarriganP · SO · USC #24 (6-1)10%49.8 yds/punt, 5 inside 20

Palmer WilliamsP · Baylor (4-2)8%51.4 yds/punt, 7 inside 20

Tyler WhiteP · Texas A&M (4-3)2%49.5 yds/punt, 8 inside 20

Simon McClannanP · SR · Kansas State (4-2)2%46.8 yds/punt, 10 inside 20

Alec ClarkP · SR · Florida #17 (5-2)1%47.4 yds/punt, 8 inside 20

Conference Awards

Chance to win each conference honor

Offensive Player of the YearHeisman-model score, simulated

Trinidad ChamblissQB · SR · Ole Miss (5-1)15%1676 pass yds, 14 TD, 4 INT; 127 rush yds, 6 TD

DeSean BishopRB · JR · Tennessee (6-1)15%837 rush yds, 10 TD; 8 rec, 54 yds, 0 TD

Jadan BaughRB · JR · Florida (5-2)11%763 rush yds, 13 TD; 9 rec, 59 yds, 0 TD

Gunner StocktonQB · Georgia (6-1)7%1570 pass yds, 16 TD, 4 INT; 160 rush yds, 1 TD

Jamal RobertsRB · SR · Missouri (5-2)7%867 rush yds, 8 TD; 13 rec, 105 yds, 0 TD

Defensive Player of the YearDefensive composite, simulated

Colin SimmonsEDGE · JR · Texas (4-2)80%24 tkl, 15.5 TFL, 10 sacks

Elijah MelendezLB · SO · Auburn (4-2)7%52 tkl, 9 TFL, 4 sacks, 1 INT, 6 PD

Princewill UmanmielenDE · LSU (5-2)5%28 tkl, 11.5 TFL, 8 sacks

Xavier GilliamDL · SO · Tennessee (6-1)1%23 tkl, 10.5 TFL, 5 sacks, 0 INT, 2 PD

Xavier AtkinsLB · JR · Auburn (4-2)1%37 tkl, 7.5 TFL, 3 sacks, 1 INT, 1 PD

Freshman of the YearBest of offense or defense, freshmen only

Faizon BrandonQB · FR · Tennessee (6-1)60%697 pass yds, 7 TD, 1 INT; 130 rush yds, 3 TD

Deuce GeraldsDT · FR · LSU (5-2)14%21 tkl, 5 TFL, 4 sacks, 0 INT, 1 PD

Jake KreulDL · FR · Oklahoma (3-3)6%9 tkl, 3.5 TFL, 3 sacks

Anthony AddisonDE · FR · South Carolina (3-3)3%12 tkl, 3 TFL, 3 sacks

Anthony Lonon Jr.DL · FR · Georgia (6-1)2%

How the other awards work. The Heisman odds come from a model trained on real votes. We don't have voting history for the position or conference awards, so those odds are simulated: each player gets a score for the award (per-game production scored against everyone else at his position, plus a small bump for winning teams; conference Offensive Player of the Year uses the Heisman model's score), and the rest of the season is played out 1,500 times. His remaining games are drawn around his level so far, pulled partway back toward average because hot starts cool off, and harder for defensive stats like sacks and interceptions, which swing more from week to week. The percentage is how often he finishes the season on top.