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2026 Season · Week 8

Betting: Model vs. the Line

Game linesPlayer props

Our power-rating model's spread and total for every game next to the market's, graded honestly. The short version: against the closing line (the number at kickoff) the model is a coin flip, but against the opening line it has won when it disagrees by 4+ points, and the market has tended to move toward our number during the week. Timing is the edge: by kickoff the market has usually caught up.

Vs. the opener, 4+ pt gap
56.4%
363–281 regular season since 2023
Line moved toward us
56.8%
1,052–801 games where it moved after opening
Vs. the close, since 2015
50.2%
4,261–4,220: no edge once the market settles
2026 vs. opener, 4+ gap
54.2%
78–66 · vs. close 48.0% overall
Break-even
52.4%
what it takes to profit at standard −110 odds

This Week's Board

Our line vs. the market's opening and current consensus (median across sportsbooks, from ESPN), sorted by the gap to the opener

53 games
Kickoff (ET)MatchupOpenedNowTDC lineGap vs. openTDC side at the openerMarket since openGap nowOpen totalTDC totalTotal leanTDC win %
Sat 3:30 PMTexas A&M @ AlabamaALA −2.5ALA −14.0ALA −14.8+12.3ALA −2.5▲ toward us 11.5+0.854.552.6Under 54.584% ALAGame →
Sat 10:15 PMHouston @ UtahUTAH −6.5UTAH −6.5UTAH −14.8+8.3UTAH −6.5no move+8.350.559.4Over 50.584% UTAHGame →
Sat 12:00 PMIndiana @ MichiganIU −6.5IU −7.0IU −14.4-7.9IU −6.5▲ toward us 0.5-7.452.542.3Under 52.583% IUGame →
Sat 10:00 PMNorth Dakota State @ New MexicoUNM −3.5UNM −4.5UNM −10.4+6.9UNM −3.5▲ toward us 1.0+5.946.547.2Under 46.576% UNMGame →
Sat 1:00 PMBaylor @ KansasBAY −1.5BAY −3.0KU −5.1+6.6KU +1.5▼ away 1.5+8.154.551.6Under 54.563% KUGame →
Sat 7:00 PMColorado @ Oklahoma StateOKST −14.5OKST −12.5OKST −7.9-6.6COLO +14.5▲ toward us 2.0-4.655.555.1Under 55.570% OKSTGame →
Sat 12:00 PMRutgers @ NorthwesternNU −16.5NU −16.5NU −22.7+6.2NU −16.5no move+6.258.562.7Over 58.593% NUGame →
Sat 3:30 PMBoston College @ Georgia TechGT −4.5GT −4.0GT −10.3+5.8GT −4.5▼ away 0.5+6.349.549.8Under 49.575% GTGame →
Sat 4:00 PMEastern Michigan @ OhioOHIO −9.5OHIO −12.5OHIO −15.3+5.8OHIO −9.5▲ toward us 3.0+2.849.550.1Under 49.585% OHIOGame →
Sat 3:30 PMHawai'i @ Northern IllinoisHAW −7.5HAW −4.0HAW −1.8+5.7NIU +7.5▲ toward us 3.5+2.245.547.5—55% HAWGame →
Sat 8:00 PMUTSA @ TulaneUTSA −4.0UTSA −2.5TULN −1.7+5.7TULN +4.0▲ toward us 1.5+4.250.549.6Under 50.554% TULNGame →
Sat 1:00 PMMiami (OH) @ Central MichiganCMU −1.5M-OH −2.5M-OH −3.4-4.9M-OH +1.5▲ toward us 4.0-0.942.548.0Over 42.559% M-OHGame →
Sat 3:30 PMNorth Texas @ NavyUNT −1.5UNT −2.5UNT −6.4-4.9UNT −1.5▲ toward us 1.0-3.961.565.2—67% UNTGame →
Sat 7:30 PMOle Miss @ TexasTEX −9.5TEX −3.5TEX −4.8-4.7MISS +9.5▲ toward us 6.0+1.354.554.1Under 54.563% TEXGame →
Sat 3:30 PMIowa @ MinnesotaIOWA −4.5IOWA −6.5IOWA −9.1-4.6IOWA −4.5▲ toward us 2.0-2.642.544.7—73% IOWAGame →
Sat 7:30 PMUSC @ WisconsinUSC −1.5USC −3.0WIS −3.1+4.6WIS +1.5▼ away 1.5+6.152.554.9—58% WISGame →
Sat 12:00 PMWest Virginia @ TCUTCU −7.0TCU −9.5TCU −11.2+4.2TCU −7.0▲ toward us 2.5+1.758.557.0Under 58.577% TCUGame →
Sat 7:30 PMUtah State @ Texas StateTXST −9.5TXST −13.5TXST −13.7+4.2TXST −9.5▲ toward us 4.0+0.258.556.9Under 58.582% TXSTGame →
Fri 7:00 PMMassachusetts @ UConnCONN −15.5CONN −14.5CONN −19.6+4.1CONN −15.5▼ away 1.0+5.149.554.5Over 49.590% CONNGame →
Sat 7:00 PMGeorgia State @ Arkansas StateGAST −1.5GAST −2.5ARST −2.5+4.0ARST +1.5▼ away 1.0+5.055.564.6Over 55.557% ARSTGame →
Wed 8:00 PMNew Mexico State @ Sam HoustonNMSU −2.5NMSU −2.5SHSU −1.2+3.7SHSU +2.5no move+3.747.547.6Under 47.553% SHSUGame →
Fri 8:30 PMArmy @ TulsaTLSA −1.5TLSA −1.5ARMY −2.2-3.7ARMY +1.5no move-3.750.554.9Over 50.556% ARMYGame →
Sat 3:30 PMMichigan State @ UCLAUCLA −13.5UCLA −14.0UCLA −17.1+3.6UCLA −13.5▲ toward us 0.5+3.147.550.5—87% UCLAGame →
Sat 5:00 PMSan José State @ NevadaNEV −5.5NEV −5.5NEV −9.1+3.6NEV −5.5no move+3.645.545.6Under 45.573% NEVGame →
Sat 12:00 PMCalifornia @ SMUSMU −16.5SMU −19.5SMU −19.9+3.4SMU −16.5▲ toward us 3.0+0.452.557.0Over 52.591% SMUGame →
Sat 5:00 PMOld Dominion @ Louisiana TechLT −8.5LT −12.5LT −11.7+3.2LT −8.5▲ toward us 4.0-0.844.544.6Under 44.578% LTGame →
Thu 7:00 PMJames Madison @ App StateJMU −10.5JMU −10.5JMU −13.4-2.9JMU −10.5no move-2.956.556.5Under 56.581% JMUGame →
Sat 12:00 PMWestern Michigan @ ToledoTOL −1.5TOL −3.0TOL −4.2+2.7TOL −1.5▲ toward us 1.5+1.244.548.8Over 44.561% TOLGame →
Sat 5:00 PMLouisiana @ Southern MissUL −10.5UL −10.0UL −7.8+2.7USM +10.5▲ toward us 0.5+2.252.551.1Under 52.570% ULGame →
Sat 7:30 PMSyracuse @ North CarolinaUNC −9.5UNC −7.5UNC −6.8-2.7SYR +9.5▲ toward us 2.0-0.744.551.2Over 44.567% UNCGame →
Sat 7:00 PMVirginia Tech @ ClemsonVT −1.5CLEM −2.5CLEM −1.1+2.6CLEM +1.5▲ toward us 4.0-1.449.550.7—53% CLEMGame →
Sat 1:00 PMAkron @ Kent StateKENT −3.5KENT −3.0KENT −1.0-2.5AKR +3.5▲ toward us 0.5-2.043.551.7Over 43.553% KENTGame →
Thu 7:30 PMEast Carolina @ MemphisMEM −9.5MEM −10.0MEM −11.9+2.4MEM −9.5▲ toward us 0.5+1.953.553.5Under 53.579% MEMGame →
Sat 7:30 PMVanderbilt @ KentuckyUK −9.5UK −10.5UK −11.9+2.4UK −9.5▲ toward us 1.0+1.452.552.1Under 52.579% UKGame →
Sat 12:00 PMLSU @ AuburnLSU −6.5LSU −7.5LSU −4.3+2.2AUB +6.5▼ away 1.0+3.250.554.5Over 50.561% LSUGame →
Thu 7:00 PMLiberty @ Kennesaw StateLIB −8.5LIB −10.0LIB −6.6+1.9KENN +8.5▼ away 1.5+3.447.544.4Under 47.567% LIBGame →
Sat 3:30 PMTennessee @ South CarolinaTENN −2.5SC −2.5TENN −4.3-1.8TENN −2.5▼ away 5.0-6.851.555.5Over 51.561% TENNGame →
Sat 3:30 PMSacramento State @ Ball StateBALL −9.5BALL −14.5BALL −11.3+1.8BALL −9.5▲ toward us 5.0-3.249.555.4Over 49.577% BALLGame →
Sat 6:30 PMSan Diego State @ Colorado StateSDSU −3.0SDSU −1.5SDSU −1.2+1.8CSU +3.0▲ toward us 1.5+0.359.565.1Over 59.553% SDSUGame →
Sat 3:30 PMBYU @ UCFBYU −9.5BYU −6.5BYU −7.8+1.7UCF +9.5▲ toward us 3.0-1.345.546.9—70% BYUGame →
Sat 6:00 PMBoise State @ Washington StateBOIS −14.0BOIS −13.5BOIS −12.3+1.7WSU +14.0▲ toward us 0.5+1.250.553.3—79% BOISGame →
Fri 9:00 PMAir Force @ WyomingAFA −6.5AFA −5.5AFA −8.1-1.6AFA −6.5▼ away 1.0-2.642.546.4—71% AFAGame →
Fri 10:30 PMNC State @ StanfordNCSU −7.5NCSU −6.5NCSU −9.0-1.5NCSU −7.5▼ away 1.0-2.555.558.0—73% NCSUGame →
Sat 3:30 PMOklahoma @ Mississippi StateOU −1.5OU −4.5OU −2.7-1.2OU −1.5▲ toward us 3.0+1.846.552.9Over 46.557% OUGame →
Sat 12:00 PMRice @ Florida AtlanticFAU −10.5FAU −7.5FAU −9.4-1.1RICE +10.5▲ toward us 3.0+1.958.556.2Under 58.573% FAUGame →
Fri 7:00 PMDuke @ VirginiaUVA −6.5UVA −1.5UVA −7.5+1.0UVA −6.5▼ away 5.0+6.053.547.5Under 53.569% UVAGame →
Sat 4:00 PMUL Monroe @ TroyTROY −17.5TROY −14.5TROY −18.5+1.0TROY −17.5▼ away 3.0+4.050.553.4—89% TROYGame →
Sat 12:00 PMPittsburgh @ MiamiMIA −23.5MIA −19.5MIA −22.6-0.9PITT +23.5▲ toward us 4.0+3.153.560.1Over 53.593% MIAGame →
Sat 3:00 PMOregon @ IllinoisORE −12.5ORE −9.5ORE −11.6+0.9ILL +12.5▲ toward us 3.0-2.151.560.3Over 51.578% OREGame →
Sat 3:30 PMBowling Green @ BuffaloBUFF −4.5BUFF −3.0BUFF −3.6-0.9BGSU +4.5▲ toward us 1.5+0.643.544.1Under 43.559% BUFFGame →
Sat 3:45 PMKansas State @ Arizona StateKSU −3.0KSU −3.5KSU −2.2+0.8ASU +3.0▼ away 0.5+1.356.562.5Over 56.556% KSUGame →
Sat 7:30 PMIowa State @ ArizonaARIZ −10.0ARIZ −10.0ARIZ −9.4-0.6ISU +10.0no move-0.650.553.3—74% ARIZGame →
Sat 12:00 PMTexas Tech @ CincinnatiTTU −11.5TTU −10.5TTU −11.6-0.1agrees▼ away 1.0-1.156.559.3—78% TTUGame →

Highlighted rows: our line is 4+ points off the opener (regular season), the zone where the model has won since 2023. Once the line moves to our number the value is gone, so “Gap now” matters too. Total leans are against the opening total and net of our totals running 2.5 points high this season. Lines update with every site rebuild (daily, more on Saturdays).

Model Track Record

Every FBS-vs-FBS game, graded against the final score. Each model line is what the model said that week, using only games already played

Against the opening line (regular season, 2023 on)

Model vs. opener gapATSCover %O/U (total gap)Hit %
0–2 pts483–41453.8%479–49749.1%
2–4 pts337–33150.4%346–31252.6%
4–7 pts281–23154.9%244–21852.8%
7+ pts82–5062.1%85–6656.3%

Here bigger disagreements do win more often. Totals are graded net of the model's average total gap the season before.

Season4+ pt gap vs. openerCover %
2026 (so far)78–6654.2%
2025123–8858.3%
2024112–9454.4%
202350–3360.2%

Three-plus seasons is a real but small sample (2,251 games; ESPN only keeps opening lines from 2023). Treat it as promising, not proven. The model's settings were tuned on 2021–2025 games, so 2026 is the cleanest test.

Against the closing line (since 2015)

Model vs. line gapATSCover %O/U (total gap)Hit %
0–2 pts1,653–1,61150.6%1,587–1,51951.1%
2–4 pts1,287–1,21951.4%1,308–1,26950.8%
4–7 pts925–96648.9%1,032–95651.9%
7+ pts396–42448.3%428–44848.9%

Bigger gaps have not covered more often. When the model and the market disagree by a touchdown, the market has usually been right.

SeasonATSCover %3+ pt gapsO/U %Miss: model / line
2026 (so far)183–19848.0%49.7%50.4%11.9 / 11.4
2025430–37153.7%54.2%48.7%12.0 / 11.8
2024409–35553.5%53.3%54.0%12.4 / 12.0
2023378–39049.2%48.8%54.6%12.6 / 12.1
2022373–38649.1%46.5%49.7%12.5 / 12.0
2021382–36950.9%47.1%50.1%13.0 / 12.6
2020269–24951.9%56.7%52.2%12.9 / 12.8
2019373–38149.5%48.9%50.1%12.7 / 12.2
2018369–38049.3%47.5%50.1%13.1 / 12.6
2017379–36950.7%46.2%49.1%12.9 / 12.1
2016356–38348.2%46.1%52.0%13.4 / 12.8
2015360–38948.1%44.6%50.6%13.3 / 12.4

The line misses the final margin by less than our model every season. That's the market's edge: it prices in news the ratings can't see.

Team ATS & Over/Under

Every FBS team's record against the closing spread and total. Pushes shown after the dash

138 teams
TeamGamesATS▼Avg coverAs favoriteAs underdogHomeAwayOver / under
UCLA66–0+15.45–01–03–03–03–3
BYU66–0+4.85–01–04–02–03–3
Kentucky76–1+7.12–04–13–13–05–2
Nebraska76–1+7.74–12–04–12–03–4
Oregon State76–1+16.44–12–03–13–06–1
James Madison76–1+14.65–11–04–02–14–3
Georgia Southern76–1+3.53–03–13–03–13–4
New Mexico65–1+15.54–11–03–02–13–3
Oklahoma State65–1+5.12–13–03–02–14–2
Utah65–1+5.85–10–04–01–14–2
Louisiana75–1–1+9.13–1–12–02–1–13–02–5
Georgia State65–1+11.53–02–13–02–14–2
Louisiana Tech65–1+7.63–12–02–13–05–1
Georgia75–2+3.14–21–03–22–06–1
Wake Forest75–2+14.23–22–02–13–13–4
Ohio State75–2+0.94–21–02–23–04–3
Washington State75–2-2.11–14–12–13–13–4
Fresno State75–2+5.63–12–13–02–24–3
Middle Tennessee75–2+0.41–04–23–02–23–4
UConn64–2+10.32–02–22–12–13–3
Northwestern64–2+10.52–22–03–11–15–1
Boston College64–2-1.21–13–13–11–11–5
Michigan State74–2–1-0.51–0–13–23–1–11–12–5
Minnesota64–2-0.82–12–13–11–13–3
Duke64–2+5.03–21–03–11–13–3
North Carolina64–2+4.60–14–11–12–12–4
Temple74–2–1-1.91–23–0–12–2–12–03–4
Baylor64–2+5.32–22–02–21–02–4
North Texas64–2+9.12–12–13–01–25–1
Kennesaw State64–2+0.91–23–02–12–11–5
Mississippi State64–2+2.83–01–22–12–13–3
Air Force64–2+3.64–10–13–11–13–3
App State64–2+2.92–22–01–23–03–3
UCF64–2+5.21–13–12–12–13–3
Florida Atlantic64–2-1.73–01–23–01–25–1
Iowa64–2+6.32–12–12–22–02–4
Liberty64–2+5.84–10–12–12–12–4
Miami64–2+4.44–20–02–12–15–1
Nevada64–2+4.41–13–12–12–13–3
South Alabama74–3+2.52–22–12–12–25–2
San José State74–3+1.61–23–10–34–01–6
Delaware74–3+0.83–11–23–11–23–4
Florida74–3-1.13–31–02–22–14–3
Notre Dame74–3+0.14–30–02–11–25–2
Louisville74–3+1.13–31–03–10–26–1
Western Kentucky74–3-2.82–12–22–02–33–4
Massachusetts74–3+5.52–22–12–22–12–5
Miami (OH)74–3-2.73–21–13–11–25–2
Ohio74–3+4.43–21–12–12–24–3
Tulsa74–3+2.12–12–23–01–33–4
Pittsburgh74–3+2.53–31–03–21–13–4
Memphis74–3+3.13–21–12–12–24–3
Virginia Tech74–3+0.24–30–03–11–25–2
Alabama74–3+5.84–30–02–22–15–2
Ball State74–3-1.11–03–32–02–36–1
UNLV74–3-2.53–21–12–12–22–5
Tennessee74–3+3.92–32–03–21–11–6
UTSA74–3+0.42–32–02–22–14–3
UAB73–3–1+1.60–23–1–12–21–1–11–6
Colorado State63–3-2.12–01–32–21–16–0
Florida State73–3–1-0.40–23–1–11–2–12–13–4
Jacksonville State73–3–1+0.13–1–10–23–0–10–35–2
Boise State63–3+4.32–31–01–22–15–1
Ole Miss63–3+4.12–21–12–11–13–3
Rutgers63–3-3.71–12–22–21–15–1
New Mexico State63–3+2.22–01–32–11–22–4
Syracuse63–3+4.81–22–12–11–24–2
Virginia73–3–1-2.13–30–0–13–10–1–13–4
Wisconsin63–3+3.62–11–22–11–13–3
West Virginia73–3–1-3.42–21–1–12–30–0–17–0
Texas State63–3+2.73–20–13–10–25–1
Utah State63–3-0.31–22–11–22–11–5
Cincinnati63–3+1.12–11–23–10–24–2
Florida International73–3–1-1.92–21–1–12–21–1–13–4
Kansas State63–3+0.33–30–03–20–14–2
Sam Houston63–3+4.41–02–32–11–22–4
TCU63–3+1.02–21–12–11–11–5
Texas Tech63–3-3.73–30–02–21–14–2
Toledo73–3–1+1.33–30–0–12–21–1–15–2
Tulane63–3+1.30–23–11–22–12–4
Arkansas73–4-2.41–12–32–21–22–5
South Florida73–4-1.02–31–12–21–23–4
Hawai'i73–4-5.11–22–22–21–21–6
LSU73–4+5.13–40–03–20–24–3
Maryland73–4-6.52–11–31–32–16–1
Missouri73–4+0.52–21–22–21–23–4
Bowling Green73–4-2.41–22–22–21–25–2
Penn State73–4-3.42–31–12–21–23–4
Vanderbilt73–4-8.11–32–11–42–05–2
Rice73–4-2.31–02–43–10–33–4
Texas A&M73–4-4.53–20–23–20–22–5
Houston73–4+4.81–42–01–32–15–2
Coastal Carolina73–4+0.31–02–41–32–14–3
Akron73–4-5.41–02–42–11–34–3
Arkansas State73–4-1.02–21–21–22–23–4
Buffalo73–4-0.21–22–22–21–23–4
Central Michigan73–4-3.41–12–33–10–32–5
Kent State73–4-3.92–01–43–00–44–3
Charlotte73–4-5.20–13–30–33–14–3
North Dakota State73–4+2.33–40–02–21–22–5
Purdue73–4+1.40–23–22–31–16–1
Missouri State73–4-1.81–12–32–11–33–4
Western Michigan73–4+2.92–31–12–11–33–4
Wyoming73–4-3.31–22–22–11–32–5
Iowa State62–3–1+4.31–1–11–21–2–11–13–3
Army62–3–1+6.32–2–10–12–20–1–14–2
Eastern Michigan83–5-2.62–21–32–21–32–6
Auburn62–4+1.51–21–21–21–12–4
Arizona State62–4-7.52–20–21–20–24–2
Arizona62–4+2.82–30–11–21–23–3
Colorado62–4-4.70–12–31–21–23–3
Michigan62–4-5.81–41–02–30–11–5
East Carolina62–4-5.11–31–11–21–21–5
NC State62–4+0.41–11–32–20–24–2
Oklahoma62–4-6.11–31–11–20–22–4
Clemson62–4-6.62–20–21–31–13–3
Illinois62–4-4.81–41–01–31–15–1
Kansas62–4+1.72–00–42–10–24–2
Navy62–4-3.91–31–11–11–34–2
Oregon62–4-4.92–40–01–31–14–2
Southern Miss62–4-0.51–01–41–21–23–3
South Carolina62–4+1.81–31–11–31–14–2
Troy62–4-3.81–21–21–21–21–5
Sacramento State72–5-10.91–01–52–20–33–4
San Diego State72–5-9.20–22–32–20–35–2
Stanford72–5-10.61–11–42–20–35–2
California72–5-7.60–12–41–41–12–5
USC72–5-5.32–40–11–41–14–3
Washington72–5-9.10–52–00–52–04–3
Marshall72–5-9.71–31–21–31–23–4
SMU61–3–2-4.41–2–20–11–2–10–1–12–4
Georgia Tech61–5-4.20–31–21–30–24–2
Texas61–5-2.31–50–01–30–12–4
UL Monroe61–5-10.20–11–40–31–24–2
Northern Illinois61–5-6.30–01–50–21–33–3
Indiana71–6-3.91–50–10–51–13–4
Old Dominion71–6-10.10–21–40–41–23–4
UTEP71–6-8.01–00–61–30–33–4

Avg cover = average points the team beat (+) or missed (−) the spread by. Over / under is overs–unders. Small samples swing a lot: a 4–1 ATS start says little.

Line Calculator

Any two FBS teams, at either site or neutral: our current spread, total and win probability

TDC lineOhio State −16.3
TDC total44.7
Projected scoreOhio State 31, Michigan 14
Win probabilityOhio State 85%

For information and entertainment. Nothing here is a recommendation to bet. If you do, bet only what you can afford to lose. Problem gambling help: 1-800-GAMBLER. Model details: power rankings and each game's tracker.