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MAC · 2026

Buffalo Bulls

Head coach Pete Lembo · Broadview Stadium
4-32-1 in conference
TDC Rank
#128
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
-18.5
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
-11.0
132nd in FBS
Defense
-7.5
120th in FBS
Schedule so far
-12.1
122nd toughest
Projected
6.2-5.8
bowl-eligible 73%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

-18.5 now, -19.5 preseason · down 2 spots since preseason
-20-100FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8#128

Final record odds

6.2-5.8 expected · most likely 6-6 (34%)
6%4-821%5-734%6-627%7-511%8-49-3

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Jason Wright
QB · 118th in FBS
860yds
6 TD · 4 INT
Rushing
Messiah Burch
RB · SR · 15th in FBS
661yds
118 car · 2 TD
Receiving
Chance Morrow
WR · SR · 54th in FBS
444yds
37 rec · 6 TD
Tackles
SaVeon Brown
LB · SR · 20th in FBS
59tkl
2.5 TFL
Sacks
Logan Goodwin
EDGE · JR · 200th in FBS
2sacks
9 hurries
Interceptions
Kobi Blackwell
CB · JR · 109th in FBS
1INT
2 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 3vsUAlbany FCSW 21–17 ›-24.3—ESPN+
2Sep 12@112Florida InternationalL 20–33 ›-21.8—ESPN+
3Sep 19@28Penn StateL 13–55 ›-14.6—BTN
4Sep 26vsRobert Morris FCSW 31–28 ›-34.1—ESPN+
5Oct 3vs81Western MichiganCONFL 17–20 ›-10.1—ESPN+
6Oct 10@79ToledoCONFW 23–8 ›+15.9—ESPN+
7Oct 17vs129MassachusettsCONFW 25–18 ›-15.4—ESPN+
8Oct 24vs127Bowling GreenCONFBuffalo −3.6 · o/u 44.1—59%ESPN+
9—Bye
10Nov 3@96Miami (OH)CONFMiami (OH) −13.9 · o/u 48.9—18%
11Nov 11@133Ball StateCONFBall State −1.2 · o/u 53.1—47%
12Nov 18vs120Central MichiganCONFBuffalo −0.9 · o/u 45.8—52%
13Nov 27@131AkronCONFAkron −2.3 · o/u 51.8—44%

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.017116th+0.08167th
Success rate35.2%132nd37.9%36th
Explosiveness1.178102nd1.23666th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate35.3%131st38.6%40th
Rushing success rate36.4%131st40.2%51st
Passing success rate34.1%128th37.1%35th
Explosive run rate9.3%124th10.0%27th
Explosive pass rate5.9%134th8.9%51st
Line yards / carry3.0093rd3.1386th
Opportunity rate34.9%121st38.8%91st
Stuff rate15.1%43rd14.4%113th
Sack rate5.2%75th3.2%121st
3rd-down conversion40.0%82nd34.0%28th
Red-zone TD rate39.1%132nd66.7%102nd
Havoc rate13.3%73rd12.8%93rd
Box score · season totals
Points / game21.4111th25.685th
Yards / game323.4121st382.1101st
Yards / play4.19136th5.6798th
Pass yards / game158.6128th229.397th
Yards / pass att.4.90138th7.3383rd
Completion %50.7%135th56.6%25th
Rush yards / game164.958th152.989th
Yards / carry3.90101st4.4093rd
3rd-down conv. %36.8%92nd33.0%33rd
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)1.57105th1.0086th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)2.57111th1.43108th
Penalty yards / game54.159th73.915th

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
9.7
35th of 138
YAC per catch
1.8
138th of 138
Deep shots (20+)
14%
66th of 138
Shotgun
96%
63rd of 138
No-huddle
89%
21st of 138
QB pressured
11%
87th of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
13%
89th of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
5.2
71st of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws219 throws charted

50% comp9.7 avg. depth1.8 YAC/catch14% 20+ air yds8–4 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 8 throws (4%), 8 caught (100%), -7 yds, -0.9 per throw8100% · -7yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 15 throws (7%), 7 caught (47%), 26 yds, 1.7 per throw1547% · 26yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 23 throws (11%), 14 caught (61%), 102 yds, 4.4 per throw2361% · 102yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 14 throws (6%), 2 caught (14%), 24 yds, 1.7 per throw1414% · 24yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 12 throws (5%), 3 caught (25%), 52 yds, 4.3 per throw1225% · 52yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 8 throws (4%), 4 caught (50%), 80 yds, 10.0 per throw850% · 80yLeft, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw30% · 0yMiddle, Behind air yards: 1 throws (0%), 1 caught (100%), -3 yds, -3.0 per throw1100% · -3yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 3 caught (43%), 6 yds, 0.9 per throw743% · 6yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 4 caught (57%), 23 yds, 3.3 per throw757% · 23yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 3 caught (60%), 45 yds, 9.0 per throw560% · 45yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 2 caught (50%), 32 yds, 8.0 per throw450% · 32yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: noneMiddle, 30+ air yards: 7 throws (3%), 1 caught (14%), 59 yds, 8.4 per throw714% · 59yRight, Behind air yards: 13 throws (6%), 8 caught (62%), 23 yds, 1.8 per throw1362% · 23yRight, 0–4 air yards: 23 throws (11%), 16 caught (70%), 65 yds, 2.8 per throw2370% · 65yRight, 5–9 air yards: 34 throws (16%), 17 caught (50%), 132 yds, 3.9 per throw3450% · 132yRight, 10–14 air yards: 15 throws (7%), 5 caught (33%), 61 yds, 4.1 per throw1533% · 61yRight, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 6 caught (86%), 103 yds, 14.7 per throw786% · 103yRight, 20–29 air yards: 11 throws (5%), 6 caught (55%), 142 yds, 12.9 per throw1155% · 142yRight, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 2 caught (100%), 94 yds, 47.0 per throw2100% · 94y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on215 throws charted

56% comp9.5 avg. depth5.2 YAC/catch17% 20+ air yds9–2 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 9 throws (4%), 8 caught (89%), 37 yds, 4.1 per throw989% · 37yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 14 throws (7%), 9 caught (64%), 64 yds, 4.6 per throw1464% · 64yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 16 throws (7%), 8 caught (50%), 87 yds, 5.4 per throw1650% · 87yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 9 caught (100%), 155 yds, 17.2 per throw9100% · 155yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 2 caught (67%), 63 yds, 21.0 per throw367% · 63yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 1 caught (14%), 21 yds, 3.0 per throw714% · 21yLeft, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (2%), 2 caught (40%), 66 yds, 13.2 per throw540% · 66yMiddle, Behind air yards: 3 throws (1%), 1 caught (33%), -2 yds, -0.7 per throw333% · -2yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 8 throws (4%), 4 caught (50%), 31 yds, 3.9 per throw850% · 31yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 14 throws (7%), 9 caught (64%), 59 yds, 4.2 per throw1464% · 59yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 14 throws (7%), 9 caught (64%), 126 yds, 9.0 per throw1464% · 126yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 2 caught (29%), 36 yds, 5.1 per throw729% · 36yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 8 throws (4%), 4 caught (50%), 126 yds, 15.8 per throw850% · 126yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (1%), 1 caught (33%), 32 yds, 10.7 per throw333% · 32yRight, Behind air yards: 16 throws (7%), 11 caught (69%), 56 yds, 3.5 per throw1669% · 56yRight, 0–4 air yards: 30 throws (14%), 16 caught (53%), 187 yds, 6.2 per throw3053% · 187yRight, 5–9 air yards: 22 throws (10%), 15 caught (68%), 174 yds, 7.9 per throw2268% · 174yRight, 10–14 air yards: 12 throws (6%), 5 caught (42%), 90 yds, 7.5 per throw1242% · 90yRight, 15–19 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 3 caught (100%), 51 yds, 17.0 per throw3100% · 51yRight, 20–29 air yards: 8 throws (4%), 3 caught (38%), 73 yds, 9.1 per throw838% · 73yRight, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw40% · 0y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction270 carries

Left
20%
6.9 YPC · 54% succ.
Middle
57%
3.5 YPC · 32% succ.
Right
23%
5.8 YPC · 48% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced228 carries

Left
32%
6.3 YPC · 50% succ.
Middle
39%
4.3 YPC · 33% succ.
Right
29%
4.1 YPC · 48% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Pete Lembo

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
12Qur'An McNeillQBFR6' 3"215Boston, MA
15Mason CumbieQBSR6' 1"205Hopewell, VA
16Elijah HolmesQBSR6' 1"215Charlotte, NC
18Jake ForburgerQBFR6' 0"215Bethesda, MD
0Nino HillRBSO5' 10"217Canton, OH
4Messiah BurchRBSR5' 9"190Staten Island, NY
21Devare MathisRBSR5' 11"215Buffalo, NY
24James McNeil Jr.RBJR6' 0"217Buffalo, NY
25Terrance Shelton Jr.RBJR5' 11"213Franklin, WI
26Chase EnlowRBFR5' 10"190Manalapan, NJ
1Phillip FolmarWRSO5' 9"185Morristown, NJ
2Jaylen AndrewsWRJR6' 2"185Williamsport, PA
3Patrick Clacks IIIWRJR6' 0"195Hobart, IN
6Chance MorrowWRSR6' 4"191Charlotte, NC
8Jasaiah GathingsWRSR6' 1"190Statesville, NC
9Alvin Jones IIIWRSO5' 11"185Chesapeake, VA
10Mark-Anthony Scott Jr.WRSR5' 7"172Port Jefferson Station, NY
11Dwayne Early Jr.WRSO6' 4"198Springfield, MA
13Bobby MaysWRJR6' 5"190Bergenfield, NJ
14Tyrell Simmons Jr.WRJR6' 2"190Rochester, NY
82Terrell RichardsWRSR5' 8"170Rochester, NY
83Jack EskridgeWRFR5' 6"150Buffalo, NY
88Aaron ClarkWRFR5' 11"190Philadelphia, PA
45Stone RozakTEFR6' 1"225Buffalo, NY
81TJ SabatucciTEFR6' 2"235Pittsburgh, PA
85Aiden HowardTEFR6' 4"230Binghamton, NY
86Michael GelatkoTESO6' 4"240Andreas, PA
89Nick LeonardTEJR6' 3"255Victor, NY
51Tyrone DavisOLJR6' 4"298Syracuse, NY
55Thomas BarrOLSO6' 3"292Havertown, PA
56Marco CateOLFR6' 4"295Carmel, IN
58Ben Foglia-AlbrechtOLFR6' 3"280Buffalo, NY
59Gabriel ArenaOLSR6' 4"293Harrisburg, PA
60Val KondratenkoOLJR6' 5"290Rochester, NY
62Paul ClarkOLJR6' 2"285Crown Point, IN
64Jacob MerrittOLSR6' 6"304Northville, MI
69Jackson BellamyOLJR6' 5"341Ancaster, Canada
72Jaden MaxeyOLFR6' 6"290Phoenix, AZ
74Nino FrancavillaOLSR6' 2"300Toronto, Canada
76Nathan NatoliOLSR6' 6"305Olney, MD
77Jackson DavenportOLSO6' 5"270Darien, CT
78Joe CrockerOLSR6' 6"339Ascot, England
79Cam DavisOLFR6' 5"280Newark, OH
88Rex StinchcombDLSO6' 2"285Herndon, VA
97Christopher ClimesDLSO6' 1"280La Belle, PA
55Mason NickelDTJR6' 1"290Midland, MI
59Royce RogersDTFR6' 0"270Springfield, OH
66Will ReedDTFR6' 3"260Oak Park, MI
95Stantavious SmithDTSR6' 1"280Albany, GA
96Charlton GoodellDTSR5' 10"245Alexandria, VA
98Mason NapleDTFR6' 3"270Victor, NY
99Cornell EvansDTSR6' 0"290Seat Pleasant, MD
1SaVeon BrownLBSR6' 1"210Harvey, IL
2Stevie BraceyLBSR6' 0"235Atlanta, GA
13Joey CheshireLBSR6' 1"235Lakeland, FL
18George HillLBSO6' 0"210Turtle Creek, PA
19Mathew HiltyLBSR5' 11"220Apollo, PA
20DJ ManganLBJR6' 1"239Maplewood, NJ
21Bradley Ilunga-BisseleleLBSO6' 0"221Montreal, Canada
25Na'Rod JarvisLBFR6' 0"215Chesapeake, VA
31Drake SaltarelliLBJR6' 0"218Belleair Bluffs, FL
32Matthew HeiningerLBFR6' 1"220Rochester, NY
33Jordan OwensLBSR6' 0"220Endwell, NY
40Amari SnowdenLBFR6' 3"210Rochester, NY
44Zach BergmannLBSR6' 4"230Rogersville, MO
52Jack GarbolinoLBFR6' 1"227North Brunswick, NJ
0Kobi BlackwellCBJR5' 8"180Buford, GA
3Oliver BridgesCBSR6' 2"215Upper Marlboro, MD
5Mikey CrawfordCBJR6' 0"195Pittsburgh, PA
9Keontez BradleyCBSR6' 2"185Mansfield, OH
12Jackson SmallCBSO5' 11"185Upper Marlboro, MD
22Donovan RodriguezCBSO5' 10"185Lancaster, PA
24Sayre SmothersCBSO5' 10"160Cincinnati, OH
27Davion CoffeeCBJR5' 9"195Rochester, NY
28Drayson CraneCBSO6' 0"195Dallas, TX
29Cardel StaplesCBFR5' 11"175Buffalo, NY
37Jamarcus JonesCBFR5' 11"170Columbus, OH
4Ronnell DavisSJR6' 0"193Philadelphia, PA
6Miles GreerSSR5' 10"195Springfield, VA
7John KeoughSJR6' 0"202Macedonia, OH
10Jamiere MunsonSSR5' 10"196Rochester, NY
14Jonathan RousseauSSO6' 0"193Coconut Creek, FL
23Xavier LeonardSJR5' 11"200Atlanta, GA
26Zae JenningsSJR6' 0"192Cincinnati, OH
38Dylan ClearySFR6' 0"193Ellicott City, MD
43Xair StevensonSSO6' 0"188Pittsburgh, PA
31Oliver HautanenPKSO5' 11"182Colleyville, TX
39Blake SholderPKFR6' 2"215Voorhees, NJ
96Zach McGowanPKSR6' 1"190Tonawanda, NY
95Evan PfeiferPFR6' 3"190Pittsburgh, PA
42Sam StrattonLSJR6' 0"185East Amherst, NY
48Joseph StoeverLSSR6' 2"210Savannah, GA
11Will ClarkEDGEJR6' 3"258Crown Point, IN
16Caleb OliverEDGEJR6' 2"235Deltona, FL
17Logan GoodwinEDGEJR6' 4"240West Chester, PA
30Jacari BennettEDGEJR6' 3"240Simpsonville, SC
34Preston LunsfordEDGEFR6' 2"230Newark, OH
35Malachi ErvinEDGEFR6' 4"230Pickerington, OH
49Aiden AndersonEDGEFR6' 2"235Orlando, FL
50Zach PettittEDGEFR6' 2"220Carthage, NY

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2020 (+9.1, #16) · worst: 2016 (-15.9, #127)
-100+10FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#109
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far4-32-1#128-18.5-11.0-7.5
20255-74-4#109-7.6-4.8-2.8
20249-46-2#86-3.4-1.5-1.8
20233-93-5#116-9.8-5.6-4.1
20227-65-3#91-4.9-1.9-3.1
20214-82-6#98-5.0-1.4-3.6
20206-15-0#16+9.1+6.8+2.3
20198-55-3#45+2.7+0.5+2.2
201810-47-1#52+2.3+3.4-1.1
20176-64-4#84-3.0-1.7-1.3
20162-101-7#127-15.9-10.3-5.6
20155-73-5#95-5.7-1.7-3.9
20145-63-4#95-6.8-0.3-6.6

Buffalo's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Oct 21, 10:45 AM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →