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Big Ten · 2026

Penn State Nittany Lions

Head coach Matt Campbell · Beaver Stadium
3-40-4 in conference
TDC Rank
#28
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
+11.9
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
+4.3
42nd in FBS
Defense
+7.6
23rd in FBS
Schedule so far
+0.6
39th toughest
Projected
6.9-5.1
bowl-eligible 94%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

+11.9 now, +17.4 preseason · down 16 spots since preseason
0+10+20FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8#28

Final record odds

6.9-5.1 expected · most likely 7-5 (42%)
4-86%5-722%6-642%7-529%8-4

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Rocco Becht
QB · SR · 24th in FBS
1664yds
12 TD · 5 INT
Rushing
Carson Hansen
RB · SR · 189th in FBS
278yds
72 car · 4 TD
Receiving
Chase Sowell
WR · SR · 29th in FBS
510yds
34 rec · 3 TD
Tackles
Tony Rojas
LB · JR · 27th in FBS
56tkl
10.5 TFL
Sacks
Tony Rojas
LB · JR · 17th in FBS
5sacks
2 hurries
Interceptions
Tony Rojas
LB · JR · 28th in FBS
2INT
2 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 5vs113MarshallW 45–0 ›+14.4—FS1
2Sep 12@101TempleW 27–9 ›+11.9—ESPN2
3Sep 19vs128BuffaloW 55–13 ›+8.0—BTN
4Sep 26vs27WisconsinCONFL 20–24 ›+4.6—Peacock
5Oct 2@26NorthwesternCONFL 13–34 ›-4.8—Fox
6Oct 10vs24USCCONFL 23–31 ›+1.3—NBC
7Oct 17@40MichiganCONFL 18–21 ›+8.5—CBS
8—Bye
9Oct 31vs71PurdueCONFPenn State −15.9 · o/u 56.1—86%
10Nov 7@52WashingtonCONFPenn State −3.0 · o/u 47.7—58%
11Nov 14vs66MinnesotaCONFPenn State −13.9 · o/u 46.3—82%
12Nov 21vs92RutgersCONFPenn State −22.3 · o/u 58.8—93%
13Nov 28@76MarylandCONFPenn State −9.9 · o/u 52.4—75%

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.12581st+0.10278th
Success rate40.4%98th40.2%55th
Explosiveness1.24368th1.29898th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate39.8%109th39.8%50th
Rushing success rate37.2%126th43.1%75th
Passing success rate42.1%74th36.1%24th
Explosive run rate6.6%137th16.5%123rd
Explosive pass rate11.6%54th6.2%12th
Line yards / carry2.72125th3.0471st
Opportunity rate34.4%123rd40.4%104th
Stuff rate13.1%26th21.3%28th
Sack rate4.8%60th4.7%91st
3rd-down conversion34.6%117th33.3%17th
Red-zone TD rate57.9%89th62.5%84th
Havoc rate13.5%80th16.5%26th
Box score · season totals
Points / game28.774th18.931st
Yards / game384.175th313.631st
Yards / play5.6576th5.0858th
Pass yards / game253.446th141.35th
Yards / pass att.7.8056th5.565th
Completion %63.3%74th56.7%29th
Rush yards / game130.7109th172.3102nd
Yards / carry3.80108th4.92118th
3rd-down conv. %35.8%104th28.1%7th
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)1.0041st1.5727th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)1.5754th1.29116th
Penalty yards / game44.120th50.495th

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
9.6
38th of 138
YAC per catch
5.1
91st of 138
Deep shots (20+)
16%
32nd of 138
Shotgun
83%
124th of 138
No-huddle
73%
54th of 138
QB pressured
10%
106th of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
17%
31st of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
5.0
88th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws191 throws charted

63% comp9.6 avg. depth5.1 YAC/catch16% 20+ air yds12–5 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 11 throws (6%), 11 caught (100%), 70 yds, 6.4 per throw11100% · 70yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 18 throws (9%), 13 caught (72%), 75 yds, 4.2 per throw1872% · 75yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 15 throws (8%), 13 caught (87%), 129 yds, 8.6 per throw1587% · 129yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 3 caught (60%), 46 yds, 9.2 per throw560% · 46yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 3 throws (2%), 1 caught (33%), 19 yds, 6.3 per throw333% · 19yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 2 caught (40%), 49 yds, 9.8 per throw540% · 49yLeft, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (3%), 1 caught (20%), 35 yds, 7.0 per throw520% · 35yMiddle, Behind air yards: noneMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 11 throws (6%), 10 caught (91%), 84 yds, 7.6 per throw1191% · 84yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 14 throws (7%), 5 caught (36%), 42 yds, 3.0 per throw1436% · 42yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 8 throws (4%), 4 caught (50%), 74 yds, 9.3 per throw850% · 74yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 5 caught (71%), 143 yds, 20.4 per throw771% · 143yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 4 caught (80%), 99 yds, 19.8 per throw580% · 99yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 56 yds, 28.0 per throw250% · 56yRight, Behind air yards: 9 throws (5%), 8 caught (89%), 62 yds, 6.9 per throw989% · 62yRight, 0–4 air yards: 24 throws (13%), 18 caught (75%), 111 yds, 4.6 per throw2475% · 111yRight, 5–9 air yards: 22 throws (12%), 12 caught (55%), 122 yds, 5.5 per throw2255% · 122yRight, 10–14 air yards: 10 throws (5%), 7 caught (70%), 102 yds, 10.2 per throw1070% · 102yRight, 15–19 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 1 caught (25%), 18 yds, 4.5 per throw425% · 18yRight, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 2 caught (40%), 57 yds, 11.4 per throw540% · 57yRight, 30+ air yards: 8 throws (4%), 2 caught (25%), 84 yds, 10.5 per throw825% · 84y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on159 throws charted

56% comp8.0 avg. depth5.0 YAC/catch13% 20+ air yds5–7 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 16 throws (10%), 16 caught (100%), 47 yds, 2.9 per throw16100% · 47yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 12 throws (8%), 7 caught (58%), 38 yds, 3.2 per throw1258% · 38yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 12 throws (8%), 6 caught (50%), 53 yds, 4.4 per throw1250% · 53yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 3 caught (43%), 31 yds, 4.4 per throw743% · 31yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw50% · 0yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 3 caught (60%), 82 yds, 16.4 per throw560% · 82yLeft, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw30% · 0yMiddle, Behind air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 1 yds, 0.5 per throw250% · 1yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 4 caught (57%), 19 yds, 2.7 per throw757% · 19yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 10 throws (6%), 6 caught (60%), 46 yds, 4.6 per throw1060% · 46yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 4 throws (3%), 4 caught (100%), 50 yds, 12.5 per throw4100% · 50yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 3 throws (2%), 3 caught (100%), 114 yds, 38.0 per throw3100% · 114yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 1 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 1 throws (1%), 1 caught (100%), 31 yds, 31.0 per throw1100% · 31yRight, Behind air yards: 17 throws (11%), 11 caught (65%), 82 yds, 4.8 per throw1765% · 82yRight, 0–4 air yards: 17 throws (11%), 14 caught (82%), 119 yds, 7.0 per throw1782% · 119yRight, 5–9 air yards: 16 throws (10%), 6 caught (38%), 56 yds, 3.5 per throw1638% · 56yRight, 10–14 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 1 caught (14%), 11 yds, 1.6 per throw714% · 11yRight, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (4%), 4 caught (67%), 66 yds, 11.0 per throw667% · 66yRight, 20–29 air yards: 4 throws (3%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw40% · 0yRight, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (3%), 1 caught (25%), 40 yds, 10.0 per throw425% · 40y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction227 carries

Left
19%
6.5 YPC · 44% succ.
Middle
60%
2.8 YPC · 33% succ.
Right
21%
5.7 YPC · 57% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced217 carries

Left
20%
6.1 YPC · 53% succ.
Middle
67%
5.7 YPC · 40% succ.
Right
13%
3.8 YPC · 48% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Matt Campbell

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
3Rocco BechtQBSR6' 1"208Wesley Chapel, FL
7Alex ManskeQBFR6' 3"210Algona, IA
10Connor BarryQBSR6' 1"211Vienna, VA
12Kase EvansQBFR6' 3"200Lexington, TX
14Peyton FalzoneQBFR6' 5"216Nazareth, PA
19Jack LambertQBJR6' 3"202Hampstead, NC
1James PeoplesRBJR5' 10"214San Antonio, TX
21Carson HansenRBSR6' 2"216Lakeville, MN
25Quinton Martin Jr.RBSO6' 1"212Belle Vernon, PA
29D'Antae SheffeyRBFR5' 11"201State College, PA
36Amar'e GloverRBFR6' 0"205Middletown, DE
0Chase SowellWRSR6' 3"203Humble, TX
2Zay RobinsonWRFR5' 11"186Des Moines, IA
4Brett EskildsenWRJR6' 1"198Frisco, TX
6Koby HowardWRSO5' 11"203Pensacola, FL
7Peter GonzalezWRSO6' 2"211Mars, PA
8Karon BrookinsWRFR6' 5"205Pennsauken, NJ
9Amarion JacksonWRFR6' 2"192Omaha, NE
11Lyrick SamuelWRFR6' 4"183Brooklyn, NY
13Hank LustigWRFR5' 9"170State College, PA
15Keith Jones Jr.WRSO6' 4"197New Orleans, LA
31Logan CunninghamWRSR5' 8"183Belle Vernon, PA
37Max HeffnerWRFR5' 11"176Birdsboro, PA
82Ethan BlackWRJR5' 9"178Davidsville, PA
18Benjamin BrahmerTESR6' 7"250Pierce, NE
80Cooper AlexanderTESO6' 4"241Washington, OK
83Brian KortovichTEFR6' 4"241Willoughby, OH
84Gabe BurkleTESR6' 6"247Cedar Rapids, IA
87Andrew RappleyeaTEJR6' 4"242Millbrook, NY
89Finn FurmanekTEJR6' 3"251State College, PA
50Cooper CousinsOLJR6' 6"320Erie, PA
51Brock RikerOLSO6' 4"291Brock, TX
52Dominic RulliOLSR6' 3"298Burlington, KY
54Vaea IkakoulaOLFR6' 3"326Laie, HI
55Chimdy OnohOLJR6' 5"320Baltimore, MD
56Mason BandhauerOLFR6' 6"297Fort Collins, CO
61Liam HoranOLSO6' 3"292West Chester, PA
65Jim FitzgeraldOLSR6' 7"337Severna Park, MD
67Henry BoehmeOLJR6' 5"285Birmingham, AL
68Anthony DonkohOLJR6' 5"334Aldie, VA
70Trevor BuhrOLJR6' 4"318Washington, MO
71Garrett SextonOLSO6' 6"315Hartland, WI
72Tyshon HuffOLJR6' 4"292Cincinnati, OH
74Kuol Kuol IIOLFR6' 6"291Centerville, OH
75Pete EglitisOLFR6' 7"295Columbus, OH
76Hunter AlbrightOLFR6' 5"326Hollidaysburg, PA
77Owen AlicieneOLFR6' 7"303Cheshire, CT
78Malachi GoodmanOLFR6' 6"330Bloomfield, NJ
79Donnie HarbourOLSO6' 3"333Milwaukee, WI
88Elijah ReederDLFR6' 6"210Bayville, NJ
1Ikenna EzeoguDESR6' 5"273Blue Springs, MO
11LaVar Arrington IIDESO6' 3"220Annapolis, MD
18Max GranvilleDESO6' 3"252Sugar Land, TX
19Yvan KemajouDESO6' 3"252Burtonsville, MD
33Alexander McPhersonDESO6' 6"254Stuart, FL
42Mason RobinsonDEJR6' 3"255Randallstown, MD
43Dayshaun BurnettDEFR6' 3"226Pittsburgh, PA
47Aidan ProbstDESO6' 2"246Erie, PA
86Bobby MearsDEJR6' 4"257West Chester, PA
89Jackson FordDEFR6' 4"264Phoenixville, PA
39Ty BlandingDTJR6' 1"301Bronx, NY
56Alijah CarnellDTSO6' 5"299Henderson, NV
73Caleb BrewerDTSO6' 4"295Reading, PA
90Liam AndrewsDTSO6' 4"276Brookline, MA
91Armstrong NnodimDTSO6' 2"310Mesquite, TX
92Siale TaupakiDTSR6' 2"326East Oakland, CA
94De'Andre CookDTSO6' 4"298Washington, DC
8Kooper EbelLBSR6' 4"233Hartley, IA
9Cael BrezinaLBJR6' 3"233Downers Grove, IL
10Caleb BaconLBSR6' 4"242Lake Mills, IA
13Tony RojasLBJR6' 2"236Fairfax, VA
25Alex TatschLBSO6' 2"235Latrobe, PA
26Cam SmithLBFR6' 0"222Salem, NJ
32John KlostermanLBSR5' 11"223Iowa City, IA
34Chris FileppoLBSO6' 4"219Doylestown, PA
40Keian KaiserLBFR6' 4"215Sidney, NE
40Jake LukacLBFR6' 1"210State College, PA
45Josh BanksLBFR6' 1"200Hollidaysburg, PA
0Jahmir JosephCBFR6' 0"190Nyack, NY
2Audavion CollinsCBSR5' 11"183Covington, GA
5Daryus DixsonCBSO6' 0"184Perris, CA
12Xxavier ThomasCBFR5' 11"180Canonsburg, PA
15Joshua JohnsonCBFR6' 2"189Ironton, OH
16Donte NastasiCBJR5' 10"169State College, PA
20Tyrell ChatmanCBFR6' 2"196Lincoln, NE
29Hunter SowellCBFR5' 10"180Humble, TX
35Tyler ArmsteadCBSO6' 1"177Canonsburg, PA
3Jamison PattonSSR6' 2"206Des Moines, IA
4Jeremiah CooperSSR6' 0"188El Paso, TX
24Ibn McDanielsSSO6' 3"202Elizabeth, NJ
27Omarion DavisSSO5' 11"198Charlotte, NC
30Christian AskewSFR6' 4"199Kathleen, GA
31Marcus Neal Jr.SJR6' 1"216Kansas City, MO
41Jake LaVerdeSFR6' 2"210Kirtland, OH
94Ryan BarkerPKJR6' 2"191Landenberg, PA
95Cristiano RosaPKSR5' 11"205Shelton, CT
98Matthew ParkerPKFR6' 0"224York, PA
96Lucas TenbrockPFR6' 6"210St. Charles, IL
35Blaise Sokach-MinnickLSSR6' 3"216West Pittston, PA
92Andrew DufaultLSSO6' 1"249Westwood, MA

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2017 (+19.1, #2) · worst: 2014 (+1.3, #57)
0+10+20FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#18
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far3-40-4#28+11.9+4.3+7.6
20257-63-6#18+10.2+5.1+5.1
202413-38-1#4+16.2+6.0+10.3
202310-37-2#6+16.3+6.0+10.3
202211-27-2#6+14.8+6.5+8.2
20217-64-5#19+7.7+0.3+7.3
20204-54-5#36+4.6+2.6+2.0
201911-27-2#7+15.5+5.7+9.8
20189-46-3#9+12.3+5.4+6.9
201711-27-2#2+19.1+10.3+8.8
201611-38-1#11+11.9+8.4+3.5
20157-64-4#58+2.9-2.8+5.7
20147-62-6#57+1.3-5.7+7.0

Penn State's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Oct 21, 10:17 PM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →