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MAC · 2026

Toledo Rockets

Head coach Mike Jacobs · Glass Bowl
5-22-1 in conference
TDC Rank
#79
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
-2.9
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
-1.3
80th in FBS
Defense
-1.6
80th in FBS
Schedule so far
-14.6
134th toughest
Projected
8.8-3.2
bowl-eligible >99%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

-2.9 now, -6.3 preseason · up 8 spots since preseason
-50FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8#80

Final record odds

8.8-3.2 expected · most likely 9-3 (44%)
6-66%7-527%8-444%9-322%10-2

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
John Alan Richter
QB · JR · 10th in FBS
1853yds
14 TD · 1 INT
Rushing
CJ Miller
RB · JR · 75th in FBS
426yds
76 car · 6 TD
Receiving
Adjatay Dabbs
WR · JR · 48th in FBS
468yds
32 rec · 5 TD
Tackles
Julian Fox
LB · JR · 27th in FBS
56tkl
3 TFL
Sacks
Andrew Zock
DE · 3rd in FBS
7sacks
15 hurries
Interceptions
Isaac Zay
LB · 28th in FBS
2INT
4 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 4@63Michigan StateL 20–30 ›-3.8—FS1
2Sep 12vsCentral Connecticut FCSW 63–10 ›+4.0—ESPN+
3Sep 19vs101TempleW 49–48 ›-12.6—CBSSN
4Sep 26vs98San Diego StateW 41–16 ›+11.8—CBSSN
5Oct 3@133Ball StateCONFW 39–24 ›-2.3—ESPN+
6Oct 10vs128BuffaloCONFL 8–23 ›-37.3—ESPN+
7Oct 17@124Eastern MichiganCONFW 34–14 ›+7.1—ESPN+
8Oct 24vs81Western MichiganCONFToledo −4.2 · o/u 48.8—61%CBSSN
9—Bye
10Nov 4@138Sacramento StateCONFToledo −21.9 · o/u 52.6—93%
11Nov 11vs129MassachusettsCONFToledo −19.5 · o/u 50.8—90%
12Nov 20vs127Bowling GreenCONFToledo −19.2 · o/u 47.8—90%ESPN2
13Nov 27@88OhioCONFOhio −1.5 · o/u 52.6—46%

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.23530th-0.01423rd
Success rate44.0%59th33.7%6th
Explosiveness1.34922nd1.369121st
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate44.5%55th33.5%4th
Rushing success rate42.9%84th29.7%2nd
Passing success rate46.0%40th37.1%35th
Explosive run rate12.3%97th10.8%39th
Explosive pass rate11.3%55th7.7%29th
Line yards / carry3.2063rd2.8039th
Opportunity rate38.4%80th31.1%14th
Stuff rate14.8%39th20.3%39th
Sack rate0.9%3rd7.1%29th
3rd-down conversion41.0%75th39.2%68th
Red-zone TD rate78.3%9th47.4%32nd
Havoc rate10.0%22nd14.2%61st
Box score · season totals
Points / game36.327th23.669th
Yards / game458.420th322.034th
Yards / play6.6418th4.3918th
Pass yards / game273.427th197.049th
Yards / pass att.8.5030th5.8214th
Completion %65.3%50th55.7%17th
Rush yards / game185.043rd125.046th
Yards / carry5.1028th3.4335th
3rd-down conv. %42.7%47th36.4%57th
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)1.1454th1.1478th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)0.434th3.0014th
Penalty yards / game76.0126th32.6135th

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
9.0
51st of 138
YAC per catch
6.0
41st of 138
Deep shots (20+)
16%
46th of 138
Shotgun
90%
110th of 138
No-huddle
86%
30th of 138
QB pressured
5%
138th of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
20%
12th of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
3.8
135th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws218 throws charted

65% comp9.0 avg. depth6.0 YAC/catch16% 20+ air yds15–2 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 18 throws (8%), 17 caught (94%), 81 yds, 4.5 per throw1894% · 81yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 11 throws (5%), 9 caught (82%), 80 yds, 7.3 per throw1182% · 80yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 18 throws (8%), 13 caught (72%), 138 yds, 7.7 per throw1872% · 138yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 12 throws (6%), 5 caught (42%), 75 yds, 6.3 per throw1242% · 75yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 2 caught (29%), 32 yds, 4.6 per throw729% · 32yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 12 throws (6%), 5 caught (42%), 109 yds, 9.1 per throw1242% · 109yLeft, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 60 yds, 30.0 per throw250% · 60yMiddle, Behind air yards: 8 throws (4%), 6 caught (75%), 61 yds, 7.6 per throw875% · 61yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 15 throws (7%), 11 caught (73%), 119 yds, 7.9 per throw1573% · 119yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 14 throws (6%), 9 caught (64%), 90 yds, 6.4 per throw1464% · 90yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 8 throws (4%), 5 caught (63%), 105 yds, 13.1 per throw863% · 105yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 8 throws (4%), 5 caught (63%), 132 yds, 16.5 per throw863% · 132yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 2 caught (50%), 54 yds, 13.5 per throw450% · 54yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 1 caught (25%), 78 yds, 19.5 per throw425% · 78yRight, Behind air yards: 11 throws (5%), 9 caught (82%), 49 yds, 4.5 per throw1182% · 49yRight, 0–4 air yards: 19 throws (9%), 16 caught (84%), 108 yds, 5.7 per throw1984% · 108yRight, 5–9 air yards: 17 throws (8%), 9 caught (53%), 71 yds, 4.2 per throw1753% · 71yRight, 10–14 air yards: 13 throws (6%), 9 caught (69%), 136 yds, 10.5 per throw1369% · 136yRight, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 4 caught (80%), 92 yds, 18.4 per throw580% · 92yRight, 20–29 air yards: 8 throws (4%), 2 caught (25%), 51 yds, 6.4 per throw825% · 51yRight, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 2 caught (50%), 83 yds, 20.8 per throw450% · 83y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on229 throws charted

56% comp8.6 avg. depth3.8 YAC/catch13% 20+ air yds10–3 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 11 throws (5%), 8 caught (73%), 31 yds, 2.8 per throw1173% · 31yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 16 throws (7%), 10 caught (63%), 47 yds, 2.9 per throw1663% · 47yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 33 throws (14%), 19 caught (58%), 161 yds, 4.9 per throw3358% · 161yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 13 throws (6%), 4 caught (31%), 51 yds, 3.9 per throw1331% · 51yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 3 caught (38%), 73 yds, 9.1 per throw838% · 73yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 1 caught (20%), 26 yds, 5.2 per throw520% · 26yLeft, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw30% · 0yMiddle, Behind air yards: 5 throws (2%), 4 caught (80%), 5 yds, 1.0 per throw580% · 5yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 13 throws (6%), 10 caught (77%), 76 yds, 5.8 per throw1377% · 76yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 11 throws (5%), 4 caught (36%), 32 yds, 2.9 per throw1136% · 32yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 5 caught (56%), 75 yds, 8.3 per throw956% · 75yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 3 caught (75%), 81 yds, 20.3 per throw475% · 81yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 1 caught (25%), 21 yds, 5.3 per throw425% · 21yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw30% · 0yRight, Behind air yards: 13 throws (6%), 9 caught (69%), 33 yds, 2.5 per throw1369% · 33yRight, 0–4 air yards: 25 throws (11%), 20 caught (80%), 110 yds, 4.4 per throw2580% · 110yRight, 5–9 air yards: 24 throws (10%), 12 caught (50%), 108 yds, 4.5 per throw2450% · 108yRight, 10–14 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 5 caught (63%), 66 yds, 8.3 per throw863% · 66yRight, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 3 caught (43%), 61 yds, 8.7 per throw743% · 61yRight, 20–29 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 3 caught (38%), 53 yds, 6.6 per throw838% · 53yRight, 30+ air yards: 6 throws (3%), 4 caught (67%), 184 yds, 30.7 per throw667% · 184y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction237 carries

Left
16%
6.4 YPC · 51% succ.
Middle
66%
4.8 YPC · 44% succ.
Right
18%
4.5 YPC · 49% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced229 carries

Left
15%
7.1 YPC · 54% succ.
Middle
66%
3.2 YPC · 23% succ.
Right
19%
6.9 YPC · 47% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Mike Jacobs

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
6John Alan RichterQBJR6' 3"225Gray, GA
7Khamoni RobinsonQBJR6' 1"195Monroe, NC
11Walter MosesQBFR6' 4"190Perry, OH
13Jake DeHaanQBJR6' 2"203Byron Center, MI
4Autavius IsonRBJR5' 11"190Atlanta, GA
20Corey SmithRBSO5' 10"175Milwaukee, WI
22CJ MillerRBJR5' 11"230Gadsden, AL
23Noah SandersRBFR5' 11"170Franklin, MI
27Dane NaumanRBSO6' 0"210Marengo, OH
29Tanner RubinsteinFBSR6' 3"235Napoleon, OH
1Rico BondWRSO177St. Louis, MO
2Trenton JonesWRFR5' 10"185Hastings, FL
3Adjatay DabbsWRJR6' 0"170Greeneville, TN
5Terrell Crosby Jr.WRSR5' 10"182St. Petersburg, FL
9Kalvin Gilbert Jr.WRJR6' 4"181Jacksonville, FL
10Seth ElchertWRFR6' 3"190Findlay, OH
12Bryson HammerWRJR5' 11"180Fremont, OH
13Cooper RuskWRSR5' 10"190Macedonia, OH
14Tashi BracefulWRSO6' 2"187Southfield, MI
19Daryl Barnett Jr.WRSO6' 2"195Toledo, OH
83Omar Mims Jr.WRFR6' 0"165East St. Louis, IL
85Anthony SimpsonWRSR5' 11"186Hartford, CT
43Sam LeeTESR6' 6"238Toledo, OH
80Peyton StricklandTESR6' 3"235Goffstown, NH
81Ethan MalafaTESR6' 6"250Cincinnati, OH
87Tucker KelleherTESO6' 6"225Alpharetta, GA
88Jacob NewellTESR6' 4"245Springfield, OR
50Luke RectorOLJR6' 5"300Valdese, NC
56Jacob KropchakOLSO6' 4"296Rochester Hills, MI
58Jake PaluckiOLFR6' 5"270Tinley Park, IL
60Jake GrimmOLSO6' 4"295Gahanna, OH
62Christian MedlockOLJR6' 5"304Homewood, IL
65Stephen GalesOLSR6' 6"290Alliance, OH
69Dominic JohnsonOLSO6' 3"290Ocala, FL
70Nick ThomasOLSR6' 4"311East Orange, NJ
71Matt HoferOLSO6' 5"288Valparaiso, IN
72Brian MahoneyOLJR6' 7"316Duxbury, MA
73Jonathan HarderOLSR6' 4"330Delaware, OH
74Ahmad CarwiseOLSO6' 5"300Piedmont, SC
75Preston DazeyOLFR
75Preston DazeyOLFRMassillon
76Vincenzo PizzoOLFR
76Vincenzo PizzoOLFRSaint Clair Shores
78Dylan SendaOLJR6' 5"303Livonia, MI
93Leonard SharpDLSR6' 4"283Bedford, OH
95Wayne Peart IIDLSO6' 4"265Pembroke Pines, FL
96Nathaniel ChandlerDLJR6' 4"269Smyrna, DE
2Ezra OdinjorDEJR6' 3"240Kennesaw, GA
21Ben SahakianDESR6' 3"245Mount Prospect, IL
37Desmond OkanteyDEFR6' 2"242Westerville, OH
51Zackery SamuelDEFR6' 1"251Sarasota, FL
53Samuel TonioloDEFR6' 4"245Avon, OH
85Josh LeeDESR6' 6"238Toledo, OH
90Zach JohnsonDESO6' 3"240Ocala, FL
92Tommy HussDEJR6' 3"227Lambertville, MI
97Brian Stovall Jr.DEFR6' 2"228Romulus, MI
41Cam GwinnDTFR6' 2"256Columbus, OH
43Tyrell O'NealDTFR
43Tyrell O'NealDTFRGarfield Heights
48Jordin FarrowDTFR6' 3"292Inkster, MI
52Lucas Lambert-PipkinDTJR6' 2"285Cranberry Township, PA
91Laith ShammaDTJR6' 6"280Ann Arbor, MI
94Adrian Love Jr.DTFR6' 2"290Tuscaloosa, AL
98Micah Fils-AimeDTFR5' 11"275Naples, FL
99Caden CameseDTSR6' 1"285Bellevue, NE
5Damon Ollison IILBSR6' 0"224Akron, OH
6Langston LongLBSR6' 3"225Woodbridge, VA
10Julian FoxLBJR6' 1"220Cordele, GA
13Kari JacksonLBSO6' 1"238West Bloomfield, MI
19Isaac PrinceLBSR6' 0"215Snellville, GA
28Sam Smith Jr.LBJR6' 4"223Delta, OH
29Jordan FoxLBFR5' 11"223Cordele, GA
30Hayden RoyLBFR6' 1"200Lyons, GA
31Maddox ArnoldLBFR6' 2"225Cincinnati, OH
36Nathan GershLBFR
36Nathan GershLBFRDexter
1Cam JonesCBJR5' 11"190Reading, PA
8KJ ThomasCBSO5' 11"180Conyers, GA
11Hyajah MillerCBSO6' 2"175North Lauderdale, FL
20LaDavion OsbornCBSR6' 1"183Tyler, TX
23Israel PetiteCBSO5' 11"170Macedonia, OH
24Bo JacobsCBFR6' 0"185Fairburn, GA
25Tyrell RussellCBFR5' 11"175Columbus, OH
7Armorion SmithSSR6' 1"212River Rouge, MI
12Mo ContehSSR6' 0"190Columbus, OH
15Michael-Arinze EzirimSSO6' 1"183Dublin, OH
17Kaleb HutchinsonSSR6' 0"185Augusta, GA
22Nicholas ThompsonSJR6' 2"206Fort Wayne, IN
26Tyler HackenbrachtSFR6' 2"210Massillon, OH
27Ziiyahn BlairSFR
27Ziiyahn BlairSFRAkron
33Andrew FineskeSSO6' 1"190Sylvania, OH
39Dylan HohlerSJR6' 4"196Huron, OH
39Anthony RugglesPKFR5' 9"170Youngstown, OH
93Reice GriffithPKSR5' 11"170Pace, FL
36Emilio DuranPSR6' 0"200Ottawa Hills, OH
46Hunter ProbstPFR6' 5"210Santa Rosa, CA
47Markus MeinckePJR6' 7"220Hamburg, Germany
45Reece StrittmatterLSFR6' 5"200Adel, IA
49Max AllenLSFR6' 4"205Holly Springs, NC

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2015 (+8.1, #27) · worst: 2019 (-7.4, #109)
-10-50+5+10FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#33
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far5-22-1#79-2.9-1.3-1.6
20258-56-2#33+5.90.0+5.9
20248-54-4#73-0.4-0.1-0.2
202311-38-0#50+2.9+1.8+1.1
20229-55-3#69+0.4+0.40.0
20217-65-3#53+3.2+1.2+2.0
20204-24-2#51+2.0+1.1+0.9
20196-63-5#109-7.4-2.0-5.5
20187-65-3#58+1.6+7.2-5.5
201711-37-1#41+4.4+5.1-0.7
20169-46-2#30+6.5+6.4+0.1
201510-26-2#27+8.1+3.7+4.4
20149-47-1#68-0.7+4.4-5.2

Toledo's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Oct 21, 10:45 AM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →