EPA = expected points added per play. Compared with every FBS RB who qualifies
Computed from every play, garbage time excluded. FBS rank among players with enough volume
| Rushing | Value | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Carries | 34 | — |
| Success rate | 58.8% | — |
| Explosive run rate | 14.7% | — |
| Stuffed at the line | 17.6% | — |
| First downs | 12 | — |
| Red-zone carries | 14 | — |
| Goal-line carries | 5 | — |
| Receiving | Value | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Targets | 8 | — |
| Target share | 5.8% | — |
| Catch rate | 75.0% | — |
| Success rate per target | 50.0% | — |
| Yards per target | 8.1 | — |
| Explosive catches | 12.5% | — |
| Deep-target rate | 0.0% | — |
| 3rd-down targets | 2 | — |
| Red-zone targets | 0 | — |
Where Lair's plays went: throw and catch spots, air yards and yards after the catch, read from the play-by-play
2025 season. ESPN's play-by-play only has throw and catch spots for part of 2025 (2 of Lair’s games here), so treat the maps as a sample.
2 seasons since 2014 · box-score totals, snap share estimated from play-by-play
| Season | Team | G | Snaps | Car | Rush yds | Y/C | Rush TD | Rush SR | Rec | Rec yds | Rec TD | Tgt share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 so far | Missouri State#121 · 2-5 | 7 | 32% | 46 | 183 | 4.0 | 3 | 58.8% | 9 | 76 | 0 | 5.8% |
| 2025 | Missouri State#108 · 7-6 | 7 | 8% | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 | 25.0% | 6 | 62 | 1 | 3.8% |
Past seasons are summed from ESPN box scores; success rates and snap shares come from the play-by-play. Connor Lair's team rank is that season's final TDC rank. A dash means the stat wasn't recorded.
Connor Lair's box score, game by game, from ESPN, with a 0–10 game score for each (hover it for how it works). Click a result for the full game
| Rushing | Receiving | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Game score | Car | Yds | Y/C | TD | Long | Rec | Yds | Y/R | TD | Long |
| 1 | @ | L 0–50 | 2.5 | 5 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 | · | · | · | · | · |
| 2 | W 48–14 | 5.4 | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 1 | 5 | · | · | · | · | · | |
| 3 | L 24–30 | — | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 | 21 | |
| 4 | @ | L 24–34 | — | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 | · | · | · | · | · |
| 6 | @ | L 13–34 | 6.0 | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 | 14 |
| 7 | W 24–21 | 6.5 | 14 | 65 | 4.6 | 0 | 29 | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 | 9 | |
| 8 | @ | L 38–61 | 7.7 | 15 | 85 | 5.7 | 2 | 15 | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | 6 |
| 2026 · 7 games | 5.6 | 46 | 183 | 4.0 | 3 | 29 | 9 | 76 | 8.4 | 0 | 21 | ||
FBS rank among qualifying players
| Rushing | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Carries | 46 | — |
| Yards | 183 | 310th / 1456 |
| Yards / carry | 4 | 244th / 325 |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 150th / 631 |
| Long | 29 | — |
| Receiving | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 9 | 631st / 1995 |
| Yards | 76 | 811th / 1981 |
| Yards / catch | 8.4 | — |
| Touchdowns | 0 | — |
| Long | 21 | — |
Estimated snaps from a model trained on real NFL snap counts. Ranges in brackets are where the real number lands 80% of the time: wide for a single game, tighter over the season. How it works
| Game | Start | Team plays | Est. snaps | Plays involved | Snap share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 · Texas A&M | — | 40 | ~11 (3–21) | 5 | 28% |
| Wk 2 · Lindenwood | — | 78 | ~13 (3–25) | 4 | 17% |
| Wk 3 · Marshall | ✓ RB | 65 | ~8 (2–16) | 3 | 12% |
| Wk 4 · SMU | — | 61 | ~6 (2–12) | 1 | 10% |
| Wk 6 · Western Kentucky | — | 67 | ~23 (16–30) | 7 | 34% |
| Wk 7 · Kennesaw State | — | 73 | ~38 (26–49) | 18 | 52% |
| Wk 8 · Delaware | ✓ RB | 58 | ~43 (36–48) | 20 | 74% |
| Season | 2 GS | 442 | 142 (113–175) | 58 | 32% |
6 RBs on the Missouri State roster, ordered by car
| # | Player | Pos | Class | Car | Yds | YPC | TD | Rec | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Ramone Green Jr. | RB | SR | 57 | 246 | 4.3 | 2 | 8 | -0.01 |
| 40 | Connor Lair | RB | SR | 46 | 183 | 4 | 3 | 9 | +0.06 |
| 1 | Breezy Dubar | RB | SR | 42 | 233 | 5.5 | 2 | 4 | +0.05 |
| 10 | King Davis | RB | SO | 14 | 46 | 3.3 | 0 | 1 | -0.13 |
| 43 | Amar'e Johnson | RB | FR | 7 | 37 | 5.3 | 0 | — | +0.21 |
| 13 | Josh Joyner | RB | JR | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Stats, EPA and usage come from CollegeFootballData.com and refresh daily. FBS ranks only count players with enough volume for the stat to mean something. Qualifying for EPA takes 6+ plays per team game. Missouri State depth chart →