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CUSA · 2026

Missouri State Bears

Head coach Casey Woods · Robert W. Plaster Stadium
2-51-2 in conference
TDC Rank
#121
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
-16.0
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
-5.8
106th in FBS
Defense
-10.3
130th in FBS
Schedule so far
-7.8
96th toughest
Projected
3.9-8.1
bowl-eligible 7%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

-16.0 now, -14.5 preseason · down 10 spots since preseason
-15-10-50FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8#122

Final record odds

3.9-8.1 expected · most likely 4-8 (36%)
8%2-1027%3-936%4-822%5-77%6-67-5

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Henry Belin IV
QB · SR · 116th in FBS
887yds
6 TD · 4 INT
Rushing
Ramone Green Jr.
RB · SR · 216th in FBS
246yds
57 car · 2 TD
Receiving
Isaiah Myers
WR · SR · 3rd in FBS
796yds
38 rec · 7 TD
Tackles
Jared Lloyd
LB · SR · 1st in FBS
79tkl
4 TFL
Sacks
Josh Lukusa
DE · SR · 381st in FBS
1.5sacks
3 hurries
Interceptions
Joel Boamah
CB · SR · 109th in FBS
1INT
5 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 5@29Texas A&ML 0–50 ›-17.4—ESPN
2Sep 12vsLindenwood FCSW 48–14 ›-7.2—ESPN+
3Sep 19vs113MarshallL 24–30 ›-22.9—CBSSN
4Sep 26@31SMUL 24–34 ›+5.0—ACC Network
5—Bye
6Oct 8@111Western KentuckyCONFL 13–34 ›-29.3—CBSSN
7Oct 14vs110Kennesaw StateCONFW 24–21 ›-12.2—CBSSN
8Oct 20@109DelawareCONFL 38–61 ›-30.4—ESPNU
9Oct 27vs125Sam HoustonCONFMissouri State −4.7 · o/u 53.9—62%ESPN2
10Nov 7@112Florida InternationalCONFFlorida International −7.2 · o/u 49.0—31%
11Nov 14vs117New Mexico StateCONFMissouri State −2.1 · o/u 56.3—56%
12Nov 21@97Jacksonville StateCONFJacksonville State −11.1 · o/u 60.8—23%
13Nov 28vs73LibertyCONFLiberty −11.2 · o/u 55.3—23%

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.07897th+0.274130th
Success rate42.1%80th49.0%134th
Explosiveness1.22582nd1.18140th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate42.8%77th47.5%128th
Rushing success rate48.5%32nd46.0%111th
Passing success rate38.3%109th49.1%130th
Explosive run rate11.4%110th13.7%79th
Explosive pass rate12.1%46th10.3%74th
Line yards / carry3.2941st3.0979th
Opportunity rate43.7%19th39.4%95th
Stuff rate15.6%54th15.9%94th
Sack rate4.8%60th4.2%106th
3rd-down conversion36.0%110th44.4%111th
Red-zone TD rate50.0%110th66.7%102nd
Havoc rate12.2%47th13.0%86th
Box score · season totals
Points / game24.492nd34.9131st
Yards / game367.688th434.6129th
Yards / play5.6379th5.95114th
Pass yards / game240.756th250.1118th
Yards / pass att.7.7063rd7.71102nd
Completion %67.0%37th66.5%122nd
Rush yards / game126.9113th184.4117th
Yards / carry3.90101st4.70102nd
3rd-down conv. %35.2%107th44.1%119th
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)1.2975th1.0086th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)2.0079th1.29116th
Penalty yards / game70.6118th75.39th

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
8.6
68th of 138
YAC per catch
5.5
68th of 138
Deep shots (20+)
19%
16th of 138
Shotgun
98%
39th of 138
No-huddle
79%
45th of 138
QB pressured
14%
47th of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
12%
100th of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
5.5
45th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws210 throws charted

67% comp8.6 avg. depth5.5 YAC/catch19% 20+ air yds9–6 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 19 throws (9%), 16 caught (84%), 52 yds, 2.7 per throw1984% · 52yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 11 throws (5%), 10 caught (91%), 79 yds, 7.2 per throw1191% · 79yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 12 throws (6%), 5 caught (42%), 70 yds, 5.8 per throw1242% · 70yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 2 caught (50%), 21 yds, 5.3 per throw450% · 21yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw20% · 0yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 3 caught (43%), 115 yds, 16.4 per throw743% · 115yLeft, 30+ air yards: 7 throws (3%), 3 caught (43%), 126 yds, 18.0 per throw743% · 126yMiddle, Behind air yards: 4 throws (2%), 4 caught (100%), 15 yds, 3.8 per throw4100% · 15yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 2 caught (67%), 15 yds, 5.0 per throw367% · 15yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 7 caught (100%), 83 yds, 11.9 per throw7100% · 83yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 5 caught (83%), 79 yds, 13.2 per throw683% · 79yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 2 caught (100%), 46 yds, 23.0 per throw2100% · 46yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 38 yds, 19.0 per throw250% · 38yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 2 caught (50%), 96 yds, 24.0 per throw450% · 96yRight, Behind air yards: 32 throws (15%), 31 caught (97%), 136 yds, 4.3 per throw3297% · 136yRight, 0–4 air yards: 37 throws (18%), 21 caught (57%), 140 yds, 3.8 per throw3757% · 140yRight, 5–9 air yards: 18 throws (9%), 16 caught (89%), 151 yds, 8.4 per throw1889% · 151yRight, 10–14 air yards: 11 throws (5%), 4 caught (36%), 53 yds, 4.8 per throw1136% · 53yRight, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 1 caught (17%), 17 yds, 2.8 per throw617% · 17yRight, 20–29 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 4 caught (44%), 118 yds, 13.1 per throw944% · 118yRight, 30+ air yards: 7 throws (3%), 5 caught (71%), 208 yds, 29.7 per throw771% · 208y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on216 throws charted

66% comp8.7 avg. depth5.5 YAC/catch13% 20+ air yds16–3 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 26 throws (12%), 24 caught (92%), 167 yds, 6.4 per throw2692% · 167yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 15 throws (7%), 8 caught (53%), 32 yds, 2.1 per throw1553% · 32yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 13 throws (6%), 11 caught (85%), 94 yds, 7.2 per throw1385% · 94yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 5 caught (71%), 76 yds, 10.9 per throw771% · 76yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 5 caught (71%), 118 yds, 16.9 per throw771% · 118yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 2 caught (29%), 71 yds, 10.1 per throw729% · 71yLeft, 30+ air yards: 1 throws (0%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yMiddle, Behind air yards: 4 throws (2%), 4 caught (100%), 12 yds, 3.0 per throw4100% · 12yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 3 caught (50%), 23 yds, 3.8 per throw650% · 23yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 1 throws (0%), 1 caught (100%), 6 yds, 6.0 per throw1100% · 6yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 14 throws (6%), 7 caught (50%), 132 yds, 9.4 per throw1450% · 132yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 3 caught (100%), 51 yds, 17.0 per throw3100% · 51yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 1 throws (0%), 1 caught (100%), 26 yds, 26.0 per throw1100% · 26yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw40% · 0yRight, Behind air yards: 15 throws (7%), 12 caught (80%), 53 yds, 3.5 per throw1580% · 53yRight, 0–4 air yards: 20 throws (9%), 13 caught (65%), 128 yds, 6.4 per throw2065% · 128yRight, 5–9 air yards: 31 throws (14%), 26 caught (84%), 227 yds, 7.3 per throw3184% · 227yRight, 10–14 air yards: 17 throws (8%), 7 caught (41%), 117 yds, 6.9 per throw1741% · 117yRight, 15–19 air yards: 10 throws (5%), 6 caught (60%), 133 yds, 13.3 per throw1060% · 133yRight, 20–29 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 5 caught (83%), 143 yds, 23.8 per throw683% · 143yRight, 30+ air yards: 8 throws (4%), 1 caught (13%), 36 yds, 4.5 per throw813% · 36y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction204 carries

Left
22%
5.6 YPC · 47% succ.
Middle
54%
3.8 YPC · 45% succ.
Right
24%
6.6 YPC · 49% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced250 carries

Left
27%
5.0 YPC · 48% succ.
Middle
55%
5.4 YPC · 52% succ.
Right
18%
5.0 YPC · 41% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Casey Woods

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
2Henry Belin IVQBSR6' 3"225New York, NY
7Elijah LeonardQBJR6' 4"220Lee's Summit, MD
9Skyler LocklearQBSR5' 11"195Clayton, NC
12Brett OttensmeyerQBFR6' 4"195Ballwin, MO
15Eian FinkleyQBSR6' 2"205Bushnell, FL
1Breezy DubarRBSR6' 0"205Anna, TX
10King DavisRBSO5' 8"185Miami, FL
13Josh JoynerRBJR5' 8"180Oxnard, CA
22Ramone Green Jr.RBSR5' 9"190Nixa, MO
40Connor LairRBSR6' 1"225West Plains, MO
43Amar'e JohnsonRBFR5' 10"195Orlando, FL
0Jmariyae RobinsonWRSR6' 1"165Cocoa, FL
3Isaiah MyersWRSR6' 4"173Cincinnati, OH
6Mekhi MillerWRSR6' 1"194Overland Park, KS
8Isaiah McMorrisWRJR5' 11"175Omaha, NE
11Makai CopeWRSR6' 3"210Los Angeles, CA
17Brendon McQueenWRJR6' 3"190Tulsa, OK
34Jordan ManuelWRSO6' 2"200Richmond, TX
42Devin StaleyWRFR6' 0"170Blue Springs, MO
81AJ Bell Jr.WRSO5' 11"160Boynton Beach, FL
82Brycen DorseyWRSO6' 0"182St. Louis, MO
83Amare WhetsellWRSO6' 0"180Pembroke Pines, FL
84Antonio RobinsonWRSR6' 3"185Melissa, TX
89Torrin TeagueWRFR6' 0"191Dallas, TX
46Cash PomeroyTEFR6' 2"265Marionville, MO
80Michael Osei-BonsuTESR6' 4"280Bolingbrook, IL
85Dillon HippTEJR6' 6"255Scottsdale, AZ
86James RexroatTEJR6' 4"235Republic, MO
87Witt EdwardsTEJR6' 5"225Fairfax, OK
88Jeron AskrenTEJR6' 3"230Wichita, KS
51Chase MideauOLFR6' 3"305Douglasville, GA
54Matthew GreeneOLSR6' 5"285Centennial, CO
55Ryan MitchellOLJR6' 3"285St. Louis, MO
66Makhete GueyeOLSR6' 6"310Bradenton, FL
67Ben LiedtkeOLSR6' 5"320Norwalk, IA
69Armend UjkashiOLSR6' 1"265Des Plaines, IL
70William Dixon IIIOLSR6' 3"280North Chesterfield, VA
71King LargeOLJR6' 4"316Bellflower, CA
72Isaiah VillanuevaOLSR6' 3"302Katy, TX
73Myles EwellOLJR6' 6"315Overland Park, KS
74Julius DumasOLFR6' 4"306Carrollton, GA
75Logan ScrivnerOLJR6' 4"305St. Charles, MO
76Santiago CastilloOLFR6' 7"340St. Louis, MO
77Sebastian EspinozaOLSR6' 6"300Mount Washington, KY
78Brayden ThompsonOLSO6' 8"320Eagle, WI
79Stephen MeitzOLSO6' 6"305Eureka, MO
11Tim Brantley Jr.DLSR6' 1"275Allen, TX
44Malachi MadisonDLSR6' 3"290Chester, VA
52Kaden JonesDLSR6' 4"250Yukon, OK
57Gilles TchioDLSR6' 3"310Milton, GA
90Brandon HightowerDLFR6' 2"280Dallas, TX
97Joshua DavisDLJR6' 3"310Natchez, MS
98Cam GrayDLFR6' 2"265Arlington, TX
99Markell ChapmanDLSR6' 1"303Sumter, SC
5Kellen LindstromDEJR6' 5"240Springfield, MO
10Jalile ElliottDESO6' 3"230Greensboro, NC
22Grayson CutchlowDEJR6' 3"230Columbia, MO
30Caden WiestDESR6' 4"265Reeds Spring, MO
49Dylan BrooksDESR6' 4"245Roanoke, AL
56Jayden McGeeDESO6' 4"225St. Louis, MO
59Maurice Jones Jr.DEFR6' 3"205Orlando, FL
92Josh LukusaDESR6' 5"260Cincinnati, OH
94Breylon McCullerDESO6' 5"235Raleigh, NC
96Blessing IgbinedionDEJR6' 4"283Verona, Italy
0Jared LloydLBSR6' 3"240Daytona Beach, FL
15Martavis BlackmonLBSR6' 1"225Oxford, MS
21Jashawn CooperLBJR6' 0"215Montgomery, AL
24Caleb OlabodeLBSO6' 2"205Arlington, TX
31Cooper RoyLBSR6' 3"225Springfield, MO
32Hieko MaloneLBJR6' 1"210Newton, TX
38Stratton ShufeltLBJR6' 2"230Rio Rancho, NM
41Deion ThomasLBFR6' 3"205Atlanta, GA
45Royal WeberLBFR6' 2"206Snellville, GA
48Jedrick Russell Jr.LBFR6' 3"208Grand Prairie, TX
6Navonn BarrettCBSR6' 1"190Trenton, NJ
7Malik GanawayCBSR6' 1"190Trenton, TN
8Joel KpassouCBSR5' 10"170Cleveland, OH
12Joel BoamahCBSR5' 11"180Newark, NJ
18Sean ReeseCBSR6' 0"190Atlanta, GA
23Gionni McBrideCBSO6' 3"175North Kansas City, MO
26Darryon TaylorCBSR6' 0"180Memphis, TN
2Antonio SmithSSR6' 3"197Miami, FL
3Khalil AndersonSSR5' 11"200Atlanta, GA
9Dylan DixsonSSR6' 1"180Houston, TX
13Haydon CastonSSO6' 1"193Houston, TX
14Jerrick MartinSFR6' 4"195Glasgow, KY
16J.J. O'NealSSR6' 2"180Rogersville, MO
19Xavian MichelSSO6' 0"180Naples, FL
27Devin RutherfordSJR5' 11"180Bartlett, TN
28Joseph ArnoldSSO6' 1"170Overland Park, KS
29Christian FordSSR6' 0"180McKinney, TX
33Anthony MattisonSJR5' 9"190Miami Gardens, FL
37Josiah TurnerSFR5' 11"180Dallas, TX
39Rory ButlerSFR6' 0"175West Palm Beach, FL
36Yousef ObeidPKSR6' 0"180Dearborn, MI
37Josh DealPKSR6' 0"200O' Fallon, MO
25Stewart McDonaldPJR6' 1"195Rogersville, MO
47Andrew KallasLSSR6' 3"227Riverside, IL
50Tim ColemanLSSO5' 11"220Madison, AL
65Malakai LewisLSFR6' 3"192Webster Groves, MO

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2025

Final rating by season

Best: 2025 (-7.3, #108) · worst: 2025 (-7.3, #108)
-10-50FBS avg2025#108
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far2-51-2#121-16.0-5.8-10.3
20257-65-3#108-7.3-3.4-3.9

Missouri State's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Oct 21, 10:45 AM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →