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ACC · 2026

Virginia Cavaliers

Head coach Tony Elliott · Scott Stadium
4-32-2 in conference
TDC Rank
#34
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
+9.2
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
+2.1
56th in FBS
Defense
+7.1
27th in FBS
Schedule so far
-2.5
60th toughest
Projected
7.1-4.9
bowl-eligible 94%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

+9.2 now, +11.9 preseason · down 10 spots since preseason
0+5+10+15+20FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8#34

Final record odds

7.1-4.9 expected · most likely 7-5 (37%)
4-86%5-722%6-637%7-528%8-47%9-3

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Beau Pribula
QB · SR · 81st in FBS
1217yds
13 TD · 1 INT
Rushing
Jekail Middlebrook
RB · SR · 90th in FBS
396yds
81 car · 3 TD
Receiving
Da'Shawn Martin
WR · JR · 279th in FBS
231yds
15 rec · 5 TD
Tackles
Jacobie Henderson
CB · SR · 232nd in FBS
38tkl
0.5 TFL
Sacks
Matthew Fobbs-White
DE · SR · 41st in FBS
4sacks
8 hurries
Interceptions
Brandyn Hillman
S · SR · 8th in FBS
3INT
1 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Aug 29vs64NC StateCONFW 34–8 ›+23.1—ESPN
2Sep 11vsNorfolk State FCSW 59–3 ›+2.9—ACCNX
3Sep 19vs70West VirginiaNEUTRALL 27–38 ›-11.1—ACC Network
4Sep 26vs109DelawareW 42–3 ›+14.3—ACC Network
5Oct 3@35Florida StateCONFL 7–38 ›-13.5—ESPN2
6Oct 10vs68SyracuseCONFW 28–25 ›+0.3—ACC Network
7Oct 17@31SMUCONFL 13–23 ›+5.0—CW
8Oct 23vs50DukeCONFVirginia −7.5 · o/u 47.5—69%ESPN
9Oct 31@22Wake ForestCONFWake Forest −8.1 · o/u 47.5—30%
10—Bye
11Nov 14vs86CaliforniaCONFVirginia −17.9 · o/u 51.4—88%
12Nov 21vs54North CarolinaCONFVirginia −8.9 · o/u 45.1—72%
13Nov 28@48Virginia TechCONFVirginia Tech −0.6 · o/u 53.2—48%

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.23234th+0.09370th
Success rate46.9%39th40.3%56th
Explosiveness1.093130th1.18846th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate47.5%33rd40.4%56th
Rushing success rate49.0%24th42.6%69th
Passing success rate45.5%44th37.9%42nd
Explosive run rate13.9%76th12.4%59th
Explosive pass rate10.5%68th9.7%65th
Line yards / carry3.5019th3.0270th
Opportunity rate40.4%62nd37.1%62nd
Stuff rate12.5%18th17.3%73rd
Sack rate8.4%127th6.8%40th
3rd-down conversion27.9%137th34.9%38th
Red-zone TD rate77.3%12th62.5%84th
Havoc rate10.7%27th15.0%44th
Box score · season totals
Points / game30.065th19.739th
Yards / game362.093rd326.638th
Yards / play5.20110th4.8541st
Pass yards / game205.196th174.628th
Yards / pass att.7.7063rd6.2734th
Completion %64.0%64th52.8%7th
Rush yards / game156.968th152.088th
Yards / carry3.90101st4.0671st
3rd-down conv. %33.0%122nd33.7%40th
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)0.435th1.1478th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)3.00129th2.0073rd
Penalty yards / game49.338th53.676th

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
8.6
69th of 138
YAC per catch
6.2
33rd of 138
Deep shots (20+)
15%
58th of 138
Shotgun
93%
91st of 138
No-huddle
19%
112th of 138
QB pressured
17%
20th of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
16%
37th of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
5.4
54th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws177 throws charted

64% comp8.6 avg. depth6.2 YAC/catch15% 20+ air yds17–2 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 9 throws (5%), 9 caught (100%), 122 yds, 13.6 per throw9100% · 122yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 19 throws (11%), 15 caught (79%), 120 yds, 6.3 per throw1979% · 120yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 18 throws (10%), 12 caught (67%), 140 yds, 7.8 per throw1867% · 140yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 3 caught (60%), 54 yds, 10.8 per throw560% · 54yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 3 throws (2%), 2 caught (67%), 39 yds, 13.0 per throw367% · 39yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 1 caught (25%), 20 yds, 5.0 per throw425% · 20yLeft, 30+ air yards: 1 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yMiddle, Behind air yards: 5 throws (3%), 5 caught (100%), 2 yds, 0.4 per throw5100% · 2yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 5 caught (71%), 78 yds, 11.1 per throw771% · 78yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 11 throws (6%), 7 caught (64%), 46 yds, 4.2 per throw1164% · 46yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 10 throws (6%), 5 caught (50%), 72 yds, 7.2 per throw1050% · 72yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 1 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 5 caught (71%), 139 yds, 19.9 per throw771% · 139yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 1 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yRight, Behind air yards: 12 throws (7%), 10 caught (83%), 59 yds, 4.9 per throw1283% · 59yRight, 0–4 air yards: 21 throws (12%), 17 caught (81%), 110 yds, 5.2 per throw2181% · 110yRight, 5–9 air yards: 11 throws (6%), 7 caught (64%), 60 yds, 5.5 per throw1164% · 60yRight, 10–14 air yards: 14 throws (8%), 4 caught (29%), 58 yds, 4.1 per throw1429% · 58yRight, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 2 caught (40%), 41 yds, 8.2 per throw540% · 41yRight, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 1 caught (20%), 26 yds, 5.2 per throw520% · 26yRight, 30+ air yards: 8 throws (5%), 3 caught (38%), 164 yds, 20.5 per throw838% · 164y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on187 throws charted

53% comp10.7 avg. depth5.4 YAC/catch21% 20+ air yds6–8 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 13 throws (7%), 12 caught (92%), 74 yds, 5.7 per throw1392% · 74yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 19 throws (10%), 15 caught (79%), 102 yds, 5.4 per throw1979% · 102yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 8 throws (4%), 4 caught (50%), 28 yds, 3.5 per throw850% · 28yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 4 caught (67%), 57 yds, 9.5 per throw667% · 57yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw40% · 0yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 1 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yLeft, 30+ air yards: 8 throws (4%), 1 caught (13%), 42 yds, 5.3 per throw813% · 42yMiddle, Behind air yards: 1 throws (1%), 1 caught (100%), 12 yds, 12.0 per throw1100% · 12yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 3 throws (2%), 2 caught (67%), 18 yds, 6.0 per throw367% · 18yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 14 throws (7%), 7 caught (50%), 52 yds, 3.7 per throw1450% · 52yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 2 caught (100%), 27 yds, 13.5 per throw2100% · 27yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 3 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw30% · 0yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 29 yds, 14.5 per throw250% · 29yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 2 caught (100%), 83 yds, 41.5 per throw2100% · 83yRight, Behind air yards: 14 throws (7%), 10 caught (71%), 81 yds, 5.8 per throw1471% · 81yRight, 0–4 air yards: 22 throws (12%), 15 caught (68%), 96 yds, 4.4 per throw2268% · 96yRight, 5–9 air yards: 17 throws (9%), 11 caught (65%), 98 yds, 5.8 per throw1765% · 98yRight, 10–14 air yards: 14 throws (7%), 8 caught (57%), 139 yds, 9.9 per throw1457% · 139yRight, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 1 caught (14%), 21 yds, 3.0 per throw714% · 21yRight, 20–29 air yards: 15 throws (8%), 3 caught (20%), 118 yds, 7.9 per throw1520% · 118yRight, 30+ air yards: 12 throws (6%), 4 caught (33%), 147 yds, 12.3 per throw1233% · 147y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction251 carries

Left
23%
5.5 YPC · 52% succ.
Middle
53%
4.3 YPC · 44% succ.
Right
24%
6.1 YPC · 50% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced242 carries

Left
19%
4.2 YPC · 38% succ.
Middle
57%
4.9 YPC · 44% succ.
Right
23%
5.1 YPC · 48% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Tony Elliott

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
6Cole GeerQBSO6' 1"209Griswold, CT
7Beau PribulaQBSR6' 2"209York, PA
10Eli HolsteinQBSR6' 4"234Zachary, LA
14Boone LourdQBJR6' 1"203Los Angeles, CA
16Ely HamrickQBFR6' 5"230Shelby, NC
0Xavier BrownRBSR5' 10"202Lexington, KY
2Peyton LewisRBJR6' 1"212Salem, VA
21Jekail MiddlebrookRBSR5' 10"198Atlanta, GA
25Xay DavisRBSO5' 10"205Richmond, VA
28Solomon BeebeRBJR5' 10"199Montgomery, AL
4Jacquon GibsonWRSR5' 11"196Fayetteville, NC
5Kameron CourtneyWRJR5' 11"195Manassas, VA
8Ty'Lyric ColemanWRSR6' 2"198Danville, VA
11Rico Flores Jr.WRSR6' 2"211North Highlands, CA
13Josiah AbdullahWRSO5' 10"192Columbus, GA
15Dillon Newton-ShortWRSO6' 0"206Matoaca, VA
18Da'Shawn MartinWRJR6' 0"180Springfield, OH
22Tyson DavisWRSR5' 10"187Flint, MI
26Jack RhodesWRFR6' 1"175Augusta, GA
27Kyle AltWR6' 2"184Leesburg, VA
45Brand MorganWRSO6' 3"207Atlanta, GA
80Trevor LaddWRJR6' 2"242Encinitas, CA
81TeKai KirbyWRSR6' 2"232Fort Lauderdale, FL
82DaMari CarterWRFR6' 2"200Richmond, VA
84Isaiah RobinsonWRSO6' 2"215Chester, VA
85Dylan CopeWRFR6' 3"193Trussville, AL
30Henry OmohundroTEJR6' 3"251Midlothian, VA
88Connor CoxTESR6' 6"250Jacksonville, FL
89John RogersTESO6' 4"239The Plains, VA
94Hayden RollisonTESR6' 3"235Richmond, VA
51Grayson ReidOLSO6' 3"309Washington, DC
52McKale BoleyOLSR6' 5"329Hattiesburg, MS
55Jim Harris Jr.OLSO6' 5"295Muskegon, MI
57Luke HatfieldOLFR6' 4"285Haymarket, VA
58Noah HartsoeOLSR6' 3"317Henrico, VA
60Drake MetcalfOLSR6' 2"304Orange, CA
65Grant EllingerOLJR6' 4"303Naperville, IL
66Mikey GildeaOLFR6' 4"298New Canaan, CT
67Will RosenOLJR6' 1"290Richmond, VA
69Ryan BrubakerOLSR6' 6"313Reamstown, PA
71Monroe MillsOLSR6' 7"322Columbia, MO
75Dylan BiehlOLFR6' 4"277Suwanee, GA
76Alex PayneOLSO6' 5"312Gainesville, GA
77Noah JoseyOLSR6' 5"315Murfreesboro, TN
79Jon AdairOLSO6' 5"308Franklin, TN
88Kervins ChouteDLSR6' 4"293Fort Lauderdale, FL
6Cazeem MooreDESR6' 4"252Vanceboro, NC
14Fisher CamacDESR6' 7"262Gilbert, AZ
16Matthew Fobbs-WhiteDESR6' 3"245Monroe, LA
33Nnanna AnyanwuDESR6' 5"251Hampton, GA
53Gavin JohnsonDESO6' 1"234Richmond, VA
85Jewett HayesDEJR6' 4"241Cincinnati, OH
93Billy KoudelkaDEJR6' 8"256Lynchburg, VA
94Ezekiel LarryDESR6' 2"240Palmdale, CA
99Devon BaxterDEJR6' 6"244Clinton, MD
44Darrion Henry-YoungDTSR6' 4"295Cincinnati, OH
46Chase MorrisonDTJR6' 4"271Roswell, GA
51Sichan JohnDTSO6' 3"302Lawrenceville, GA
55Anthony BrittonDTSR6' 3"308Norfolk, VA
56Tyler SimmonsDTJR6' 3"278Windermere, FL
91Jason HammondDTSR6' 2"284Miami, FL
92Jonathan AllenDTSR6' 2"304Birmingham, AL
96Bull RichardsonDTFR6' 1"300Richmond, VA
5Kam RobinsonLBSR6' 2"239Tappahannock, VA
11Maddox MarcellusLBSR6' 2"232Miami, FL
13Myles BrownLBJR6' 3"226Columbia, SC
26Caleb HardyLBSR6' 4"217Mcdonough, GA
28Dallas BrannonLBFR6' 2"219Charlotte, NC
32Landon DanleyLBSR6' 3"225Irmo, SC
42Isaiah ReeseLBSO6' 3"222Gilford, NH
45Justin RoweLBSO6' 2"239Ottawa, Canada
49Cayden Cook-CashLBJR6' 3"231Greenville, VA
0Ja'Maric MorrisDBSR6' 3"219Timmonsville, SC
2Donavon PlattDBSR5' 11"212Jamestown, NC
15Lukas SankerDBSR6' 0"202Charlottesville, VA
27Alex DunnDBFR6' 0"180Lynchburg, VA
31Patrick CampbellDBSR6' 0"195Snellville, GA
3Kevon GrayCBJR6' 0"180Atlanta, GA
7Josiah PersingerCBSO5' 11"179Roanoke, VA
9Jam JacksonCBSR6' 2"184Plant City, FL
10Jacobie HendersonCBSR5' 11"198Charlotte, NC
17Justin RossCBJR6' 2"187Gastonia, NC
20Omillio AgardCBJR5' 11"187Philadelphia, PA
22Isaiah HarrisCBFR6' 1"180Charlottesville, VA
29Jayden CovilCBFR5' 11"161Chesapeake, VA
4Corey CostnerSSO6' 1"213Baltimore, MD
6Brandyn HillmanSSR6' 0"190Portsmouth, VA
8Christian EllisSSR6' 0"206Jacksonville, FL
18Jalen McNairSSR5' 8"221White Plains, MD
21Keke AdamsSJR6' 0"198Hartford, CT
23Jaylen JonesSSR6' 1"205Charlotte, NC
30Ethan MinterSJR6' 0"195Chester, VA
34Kevin Chadwick Jr.SSR5' 11"209Vienna, VA
38Armstrong JonesSJR6' 1"183Atlanta, GA
14Tim HamannPKFR5' 11"180Dresden, Germany
41Will BettridgePKSR5' 11"191Miami, FL
43Chris MessmorePKFR6' 2"185Richmond, VA
90Aiden BellPKFR6' 0"175Winchester, VA
39Zach ChristinatLSJR6' 1"210Norwalk, CT
50Wyatt RubinoffLSJR6' 2"220St. Mary's, GA

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2025 (+6.6, #30) · worst: 2016 (-8.4, #103)
-10-50+5FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#30
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far4-32-2#34+9.2+2.1+7.1
202511-37-1#30+6.6+2.3+4.3
20245-73-5#87-3.5-2.8-0.8
20233-92-6#101-5.7-2.1-3.6
20223-71-6#97-5.9-6.2+0.3
20216-64-4#66+0.4+3.7-3.3
20205-54-5#59+0.9+1.0-0.2
20199-56-2#37+4.5+4.0+0.5
20188-54-4#38+4.8-1.3+6.0
20176-73-5#86-3.5-3.0-0.6
20162-101-7#103-8.4-4.4-4.0
20154-83-5#80-2.3-1.0-1.3
20145-73-5#52+2.1-2.0+4.1

Virginia's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Oct 21, 10:45 AM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →