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ACC · 2026

NC State Wolfpack

Head coach Dave Doeren · Carter-Finley Stadium
3-31-2 in conference
TDC Rank
#64
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
+2.2
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
+4.1
43rd in FBS
Defense
-1.9
84th in FBS
Schedule so far
+0.1
42nd toughest
Projected
6.2-5.8
bowl-eligible 73%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

+2.2 now, +1.9 preseason · down 10 spots since preseason
0+5+10FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8#64

Final record odds

6.2-5.8 expected · most likely 6-6 (32%)
3-96%4-820%5-732%6-628%7-512%8-49-3

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
CJ Bailey
QB · JR · 42nd in FBS
1507yds
9 TD · 4 INT
Rushing
Jayden Scott
RB · JR · 111th in FBS
358yds
62 car · 4 TD
Receiving
Keenan Jackson
WR · JR · 82nd in FBS
400yds
27 rec · 5 TD
Tackles
Popo Aguirre
LB · SR · 32nd in FBS
55tkl
2 TFL
Sacks
Elijah Satchell
LB · FR · 95th in FBS
3sacks
1 hurries
Interceptions
Jaren Sensabaugh
CB · JR · 109th in FBS
1INT
2 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Aug 29@34VirginiaCONFL 8–34 ›-11.7—ESPN
2Sep 11vsRichmond FCSW 73–0 ›+7.0—ESPNU
3Sep 19@59VanderbiltL 31–35 ›+2.8—SEC Network
4Sep 26vs105App StateW 41–31 ›-4.5—ESPNU
5Oct 3vs18LouisvilleCONFW 31–28 ›+14.6—ACC Network
6Oct 10vs22Wake ForestCONFL 14–38 ›-14.3—CW
7—Bye
8Oct 23@104StanfordCONFNC State −9.0 · o/u 58.0—73%ESPN
9Oct 31vs86CaliforniaCONFNC State −10.9 · o/u 62.3—77%ACC Network
10Nov 7vs50DukeCONFNC State −0.5 · o/u 58.4—51%
11Nov 14vs68SyracuseCONFNC State −4.9 · o/u 60.6—63%
12Nov 21@35Florida StateCONFFlorida State −10.7 · o/u 62.6—24%
13Nov 28@54North CarolinaCONFNorth Carolina −5.7 · o/u 56.0—35%

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.19547th+0.207115th
Success rate44.1%58th44.4%106th
Explosiveness1.27948th1.322108th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate44.4%56th46.0%119th
Rushing success rate38.0%118th49.0%125th
Passing success rate50.6%18th43.6%102nd
Explosive run rate8.8%127th16.8%127th
Explosive pass rate11.2%56th12.0%110th
Line yards / carry2.78119th3.23104th
Opportunity rate31.6%133rd38.5%86th
Stuff rate19.3%98th18.2%63rd
Sack rate4.0%42nd2.9%123rd
3rd-down conversion52.9%15th39.7%74th
Red-zone TD rate63.6%64th81.2%132nd
Havoc rate14.7%103rd12.1%108th
Box score · season totals
Points / game33.044th27.7104th
Yards / game426.342nd363.878th
Yards / play5.8558th5.93113th
Pass yards / game257.840th230.399th
Yards / pass att.7.6065th7.94119th
Completion %67.5%30th63.2%94th
Rush yards / game168.554th133.556th
Yards / carry4.5063rd4.3189th
3rd-down conv. %51.1%14th34.7%48th
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)1.5097th1.3344th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)1.8365th1.33112th
Penalty yards / game47.532nd53.874th

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
8.7
67th of 138
YAC per catch
4.8
111th of 138
Deep shots (20+)
13%
88th of 138
Shotgun
98%
25th of 138
No-huddle
54%
80th of 138
QB pressured
11%
97th of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
17%
27th of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
4.4
121st of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws196 throws charted

67% comp8.7 avg. depth4.8 YAC/catch13% 20+ air yds11–4 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 4 throws (2%), 4 caught (100%), 7 yds, 1.8 per throw4100% · 7yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 12 throws (6%), 10 caught (83%), 52 yds, 4.3 per throw1283% · 52yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 16 throws (8%), 12 caught (75%), 110 yds, 6.9 per throw1675% · 110yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 3 throws (2%), 2 caught (67%), 27 yds, 9.0 per throw367% · 27yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 5 caught (71%), 98 yds, 14.0 per throw771% · 98yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 3 caught (60%), 77 yds, 15.4 per throw560% · 77yLeft, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw30% · 0yMiddle, Behind air yards: 6 throws (3%), 6 caught (100%), 26 yds, 4.3 per throw6100% · 26yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 10 throws (5%), 8 caught (80%), 88 yds, 8.8 per throw1080% · 88yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 16 throws (8%), 10 caught (63%), 74 yds, 4.6 per throw1663% · 74yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 2 caught (40%), 30 yds, 6.0 per throw540% · 30yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 1 caught (25%), 19 yds, 4.8 per throw425% · 19yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 3 caught (60%), 101 yds, 20.2 per throw560% · 101yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 1 throws (1%), 1 caught (100%), 34 yds, 34.0 per throw1100% · 34yRight, Behind air yards: 17 throws (9%), 15 caught (88%), 117 yds, 6.9 per throw1788% · 117yRight, 0–4 air yards: 19 throws (10%), 15 caught (79%), 100 yds, 5.3 per throw1979% · 100yRight, 5–9 air yards: 27 throws (14%), 21 caught (78%), 205 yds, 7.6 per throw2778% · 205yRight, 10–14 air yards: 14 throws (7%), 6 caught (43%), 86 yds, 6.1 per throw1443% · 86yRight, 15–19 air yards: 11 throws (6%), 7 caught (64%), 164 yds, 14.9 per throw1164% · 164yRight, 20–29 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 2 caught (33%), 47 yds, 7.8 per throw633% · 47yRight, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (3%), 1 caught (20%), 46 yds, 9.2 per throw520% · 46y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on169 throws charted

63% comp9.2 avg. depth4.4 YAC/catch15% 20+ air yds13–3 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 5 throws (3%), 4 caught (80%), 24 yds, 4.8 per throw580% · 24yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 19 throws (11%), 12 caught (63%), 95 yds, 5.0 per throw1963% · 95yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 21 throws (12%), 14 caught (67%), 127 yds, 6.0 per throw2167% · 127yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 6 throws (4%), 4 caught (67%), 53 yds, 8.8 per throw667% · 53yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 1 caught (25%), 16 yds, 4.0 per throw425% · 16yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 6 throws (4%), 1 caught (17%), 20 yds, 3.3 per throw617% · 20yLeft, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (2%), 2 caught (67%), 70 yds, 23.3 per throw367% · 70yMiddle, Behind air yards: 4 throws (2%), 2 caught (50%), 22 yds, 5.5 per throw450% · 22yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 11 throws (7%), 7 caught (64%), 35 yds, 3.2 per throw1164% · 35yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 12 throws (7%), 7 caught (58%), 79 yds, 6.6 per throw1258% · 79yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 8 throws (5%), 1 caught (13%), 10 yds, 1.3 per throw813% · 10yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 3 throws (2%), 2 caught (67%), 50 yds, 16.7 per throw367% · 50yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: noneMiddle, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 2 caught (50%), 106 yds, 26.5 per throw450% · 106yRight, Behind air yards: 8 throws (5%), 8 caught (100%), 50 yds, 6.3 per throw8100% · 50yRight, 0–4 air yards: 21 throws (12%), 17 caught (81%), 111 yds, 5.3 per throw2181% · 111yRight, 5–9 air yards: 14 throws (8%), 9 caught (64%), 72 yds, 5.1 per throw1464% · 72yRight, 10–14 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 4 caught (100%), 53 yds, 13.3 per throw4100% · 53yRight, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 3 caught (60%), 49 yds, 9.8 per throw560% · 49yRight, 20–29 air yards: 9 throws (5%), 6 caught (67%), 167 yds, 18.6 per throw967% · 167yRight, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 2 caught (100%), 85 yds, 42.5 per throw2100% · 85y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction201 carries

Left
12%
7.0 YPC · 71% succ.
Middle
73%
4.9 YPC · 39% succ.
Right
15%
6.2 YPC · 45% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced166 carries

Left
17%
5.8 YPC · 48% succ.
Middle
69%
4.7 YPC · 46% succ.
Right
14%
5.9 YPC · 48% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Dave Doeren

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
11CJ BaileyQBJR6' 6"218Miami, FL
12Tad HudsonQBSR6' 3"227Huntersville, NC
1Jayden ScottRBJR5' 10"220Stockbridge, GA
7Davion GauseRBJR5' 11"217Opa Locka, FL
14Jonathan PaylorRBJR5' 9"187Burlington, NC
20Deandre DesinorRBSO5' 10"186Delray Beach, FL
24Dylan McCoyRBFR5' 8"210Grayson, GA
25Darius JohnsonRBSR5' 10"211Hendersonville, TN
26Isiah JonesRBJR5' 8"195Rolesville, NC
29RJ BoydRBFR5' 10"217Waycross, GA
34Noah MossRBFR6' 0"205Daphne, AL
5Davion DozierWRSR6' 3"203Moody, AL
6Ashton LocklearWRSR6' 1"185Apex, NC
8Keenan JacksonWRJR6' 3"194Waxhaw, NC
12Teddy HoffmannWRSO6' 1"174Delray Beach, FL
21Je'rel BolderWRSO6' 0"208Wingate, NC
28Sam DoddWRSO6' 2"197Raleigh, NC
35Jason SchuttWRJR5' 7"162Mooresville, NC
36Cameron CornthwaiteWRJR5' 9"180Apex, NC
37Addison CarlsonWRJR5' 11"190Holly Springs, NC
80Ethan DowdyWRSR6' 2"192Powhatan, VA
82Chance RobinsonWRJR6' 2"209Fort Lauderdale, FL
83Amiri AckerWRFR6' 2"204Iva, SC
85Tyreek CopperWRFR6' 1"197Kinston, NC
89Jai RichburgWRFR6' 2"207Winston-Salem, NC
4Vander PloogTESO6' 6"253Fullerton, CA
19Preston DouglasTESO6' 3"237Jupiter, FL
44Gus RitcheyTESO6' 2"238Pittsboro, NC
84Stephen BrownTEFR6' 6"203Chicago, IL
86Hunter ProvienceTESR6' 5"261San Diego, CA
87Ian FlyntTEJR6' 4"276Katy, TX
50Daniel CruzOLJR6' 2"317North Richland Hills, TX
52Kage PayneOLSO6' 2"295Cincinnati, OH
53Matthew ClayOLFR6' 3"300Raleigh, NC
53Keoni RileyOLFR6' 3"285Jacksonville, NC
54Teague AndersenOLSR6' 5"322Lehi, UT
56Omarian AbrahamOLSO6' 1"300Fort Lauderdale, FL
60Joseph CastanedaOLJR6' 2"316Raeford, NC
62Jimarion McCrimonOLSR6' 5"314Kissimmee, FL
64Rico JacksonOLSR6' 6"316Fort Lauderdale, FL
67Henri ParisOLSR6' 3"310Kinston, NC
71Yousef MugharbilOLSR6' 5"327Murphy, NC
75Tre AikenOLFR6' 3"321Clinton, SC
76Michael GibbsOLSO6' 4"310Wilmington, NC
78Trent MitchellOLJR6' 5"316Gastonia, NC
93Carmelo McKenzieOLFR6' 1"322York, PA
73Brady SakowitzOTFR6' 6"316Richmond, VA
47Adrian FarrowDLSO6' 3"276Miami, FL
55Katron EvansDLSR6' 3"335Norfolk, VA
99AJ PrimDLSR6' 2"300Foley, AL
13Joseph AdedireDESR6' 3"254Arlington, TX
92Chase BondDEJR6' 4"252Massillon, OH
95JJ Ferguson Jr.DEFR6' 3"260St. Petersburg, FL
34Colby CronkDTSO6' 3"287Palm Coast, FL
80Damaad LewisDTFR6' 3"267Charlotte, NC
88Isaiah ShirleyDTSR6' 3"294Boone, NC
98Fabian KimbroughDTSR6' 3"290Stephens City, VA
0Popo AguirreLBSR6' 1"235Fayetteville, GA
5Harvey Dyson IIILBSR6' 2"257Cedar Hill, TX
8Da'Kaari NelsonLBSR6' 3"241Livingston, AL
15AJ RichardsonLBSR6' 1"235Kings Mountain, NC
25Sterling DixonLBJR6' 2"231Spanish Fort, AL
31Bailey BensonLBSO6' 0"214Covington, GA
32Caleb GordonLBFR5' 11"226Gastonia, NC
33Nathan HuffmanLBSO5' 11"184Apex, NC
33Ziggy MooreLBFR6' 2"232Pittsburgh, PA
35LaCorian HodgeLBSO6' 2"216Arlington, TX
37Lawrence Brown Jr.LBFR6' 3"224Grayson, GA
38Logan FoustLBJR6' 0"202Graham, NC
42Ke'Von CarterLBSO6' 3"245San Antonio, TX
43Koby SarkodieLBFR6' 3"220Baltimore, MD
44Jordan MoretaLBFR6' 1"230Union City, NJ
45Isaac PetersLBSR6' 1"247Lake Mary, FL
46Ryan KlimpLBSR6' 0"215Clayton, NC
47Jackson MastorLBJR6' 0"214Mooresville, NC
48Hunter JacksonLBSO6' 1"226Raleigh, NC
52David CollinsLBSR6' 2"233Wilmington, NC
58Elijah SatchellLBFR6' 3"242Camden, NJ
20Ondre EvansDBJR6' 0"201Franklin, TN
6Asaad Brown Jr.CBJR6' 0"200Chesapeake, VA
7Brian Nelson IICBSR6' 0"200Pearland, TX
8Isaiah CrowellCBSR5' 11"185Kernersville, NC
12Caden GordonCBSO6' 1"192Lake Worth, FL
14Jaren SensabaughCBJR6' 1"193Nashville, TN
26Jordyn BestCBFR5' 10"183Hopkins, SC
28Dy'Lan JohnsonCBSO6' 4"190Baldwyn, MS
30Jordan JacksonCBFR5' 11"182Winter Park, FL
38DJ DillardCBJR5' 8"175Collinsville, VA
Jamel JohnsonCBSR5' 11"191Covington, GA
2Ronnie Royal IIISJR5' 9"188Gulf Shores, AL
4King MackSSR5' 10"195Miami, FL
21Chino AguirreSFR6' 0"208Locust Grove, GA
29Brody BarnhardtSJR6' 0"190Cornelius, NC
36Tristen HillSFR5' 10"193Lawrenceville, GA
39Tristan ClappSSO5' 11"170Concord, NC
49Hampton RoderickSSO5' 10"179Wilmington, NC
91Nick KonieczynskiPKJR5' 11"221Matthews, NC
98Drew LovelacePKSR6' 2"175
97Cristian HarthanPSO6' 5"190Waxhaw, NC
92Aiden AriasLSSR6' 0"203Fort Lauderdale, FL

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2017 (+8.3, #23) · worst: 2019 (-6.9, #106)
-50+5+10FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#42
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far3-31-2#64+2.2+4.1-1.9
20258-54-4#42+4.4+4.4-0.1
20246-73-5#78-1.7+1.5-3.1
20239-46-2#32+5.1+0.1+5.0
20228-54-4#41+4.1-2.7+6.7
20219-36-2#18+8.1+2.7+5.4
20208-47-3#72-0.7+0.4-1.1
20194-81-7#106-6.9-6.2-0.7
20189-45-3#34+5.5+2.5+3.0
20179-46-2#23+8.3+5.3+2.9
20167-63-5#39+5.2+0.1+5.1
20157-63-5#46+4.3+3.7+0.6
20148-53-5#56+1.3+0.6+0.7

NC State's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Oct 21, 10:45 AM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →