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ACC · 2026

California Golden Bears

Head coach Tosh Lupoi · California Memorial Stadium
3-42-2 in conference
TDC Rank
#86
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
-4.9
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
-1.0
75th in FBS
Defense
-3.9
96th in FBS
Schedule so far
+0.8
37th toughest
Projected
4.5-7.5
bowl-eligible 12%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

-4.9 now, +0.8 preseason · down 29 spots since preseason
-50FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8#86

Final record odds

4.5-7.5 expected · most likely 4-8 (42%)
12%3-942%4-833%5-711%6-67-5

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele
QB · SO · 70th in FBS
1290yds
9 TD · 5 INT
Rushing
Adam Mohammed
RB · JR · 129th in FBS
336yds
73 car · 3 TD
Receiving
Chase Hendricks
WR · SR · 71st in FBS
415yds
47 rec · 2 TD
Tackles
Isaiah Crosby
DB · JR · 232nd in FBS
38tkl
2 TFL
Sacks
AJ Tuitele
LB · FR · 95th in FBS
3sacks
5 hurries
Interceptions
Kingston Lopa
DB · SO · 1st in FBS
5INT
1 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 5vs16UCLAL 24–45 ›-9.1—ESPN
2Sep 12@68SyracuseCONFW 21–18 ›+7.9—ACC Network
3Sep 19vsWagner FCSW 49–7 ›-17.7—ACC Network
4Sep 25vs58ClemsonCONFL 10–24 ›-14.5—ESPN
5Oct 3@84UNLVL 31–39 ›-8.6—CBSSN
6Oct 10vs48Virginia TechCONFW 25–20 ›+7.3—ACC Network
7Oct 17vs22Wake ForestCONFL 7–41 ›-17.8—ESPN2
8Oct 24@31SMUCONFSMU −19.9 · o/u 57.0—9%CW
9Oct 31@64NC StateCONFNC State −10.9 · o/u 62.3—23%ACC Network
10—Bye
11Nov 14@34VirginiaCONFVirginia −17.9 · o/u 51.4—12%
12Nov 21vs104StanfordCONFCalifornia −9.5 · o/u 54.9—74%
13Nov 28vs42PittsburghCONFPittsburgh −8.3 · o/u 55.1—29%

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play-0.034128th+0.14899th
Success rate37.5%127th39.1%48th
Explosiveness1.27549th1.455135th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate37.7%127th39.4%49th
Rushing success rate37.8%120th42.8%72nd
Passing success rate37.6%113th36.3%27th
Explosive run rate9.8%122nd16.6%125th
Explosive pass rate8.3%106th14.7%135th
Line yards / carry2.42136th3.24107th
Opportunity rate37.2%95th35.8%52nd
Stuff rate23.8%132nd13.4%127th
Sack rate3.3%33rd6.4%45th
3rd-down conversion37.6%99th42.4%102nd
Red-zone TD rate66.7%48th61.1%77th
Havoc rate16.4%124th12.8%93rd
Box score · season totals
Points / game23.998th27.7105th
Yards / game378.479th386.1106th
Yards / play5.22108th5.75104th
Pass yards / game288.115th206.365th
Yards / pass att.6.70110th7.0167th
Completion %65.3%50th57.8%33rd
Rush yards / game90.3137th179.9110th
Yards / carry3.30128th5.04120th
3rd-down conv. %37.1%88th42.0%106th
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)1.1454th1.4337th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)1.7160th2.0073rd
Penalty yards / game82.1132nd84.02nd

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
6.7
135th of 138
YAC per catch
5.0
96th of 138
Deep shots (20+)
10%
130th of 138
Shotgun
96%
67th of 138
No-huddle
27%
104th of 138
QB pressured
7%
128th of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
17%
29th of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
4.7
101st of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws289 throws charted

65% comp6.7 avg. depth5.0 YAC/catch10% 20+ air yds13–5 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 21 throws (7%), 20 caught (95%), 149 yds, 7.1 per throw2195% · 149yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 42 throws (15%), 33 caught (79%), 177 yds, 4.2 per throw4279% · 177yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 25 throws (9%), 17 caught (68%), 145 yds, 5.8 per throw2568% · 145yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 22 throws (8%), 13 caught (59%), 215 yds, 9.8 per throw2259% · 215yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (2%), 2 caught (33%), 52 yds, 8.7 per throw633% · 52yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 4 caught (50%), 100 yds, 12.5 per throw850% · 100yLeft, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (1%), 1 caught (33%), 49 yds, 16.3 per throw333% · 49yMiddle, Behind air yards: 4 throws (1%), 3 caught (75%), 7 yds, 1.8 per throw475% · 7yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 23 throws (8%), 13 caught (57%), 97 yds, 4.2 per throw2357% · 97yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 14 throws (5%), 9 caught (64%), 85 yds, 6.1 per throw1464% · 85yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 4 throws (1%), 1 caught (25%), 42 yds, 10.5 per throw425% · 42yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (2%), 2 caught (29%), 45 yds, 6.4 per throw729% · 45yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 38 yds, 19.0 per throw250% · 38yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 43 yds, 21.5 per throw250% · 43yRight, Behind air yards: 21 throws (7%), 20 caught (95%), 92 yds, 4.4 per throw2195% · 92yRight, 0–4 air yards: 43 throws (15%), 28 caught (65%), 137 yds, 3.2 per throw4365% · 137yRight, 5–9 air yards: 18 throws (6%), 12 caught (67%), 86 yds, 4.8 per throw1867% · 86yRight, 10–14 air yards: 6 throws (2%), 1 caught (17%), 13 yds, 2.2 per throw617% · 13yRight, 15–19 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 6 caught (75%), 191 yds, 23.9 per throw875% · 191yRight, 20–29 air yards: 9 throws (3%), 3 caught (33%), 79 yds, 8.8 per throw933% · 79yRight, 30+ air yards: 1 throws (0%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on191 throws charted

58% comp8.7 avg. depth4.7 YAC/catch16% 20+ air yds10–7 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 9 throws (5%), 8 caught (89%), 22 yds, 2.4 per throw989% · 22yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 26 throws (14%), 20 caught (77%), 101 yds, 3.9 per throw2677% · 101yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 3 caught (60%), 22 yds, 4.4 per throw560% · 22yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 10 throws (5%), 3 caught (30%), 46 yds, 4.6 per throw1030% · 46yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 2 caught (100%), 40 yds, 20.0 per throw2100% · 40yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 9 throws (5%), 2 caught (22%), 63 yds, 7.0 per throw922% · 63yLeft, 30+ air yards: 1 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yMiddle, Behind air yards: 4 throws (2%), 2 caught (50%), 6 yds, 1.5 per throw450% · 6yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 16 throws (8%), 9 caught (56%), 54 yds, 3.4 per throw1656% · 54yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 20 throws (10%), 12 caught (60%), 134 yds, 6.7 per throw2060% · 134yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 6 caught (86%), 118 yds, 16.9 per throw786% · 118yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 4 caught (67%), 80 yds, 13.3 per throw667% · 80yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 3 throws (2%), 2 caught (67%), 60 yds, 20.0 per throw367% · 60yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (3%), 2 caught (40%), 79 yds, 15.8 per throw540% · 79yRight, Behind air yards: 11 throws (6%), 9 caught (82%), 14 yds, 1.3 per throw1182% · 14yRight, 0–4 air yards: 18 throws (9%), 8 caught (44%), 92 yds, 5.1 per throw1844% · 92yRight, 5–9 air yards: 15 throws (8%), 9 caught (60%), 82 yds, 5.5 per throw1560% · 82yRight, 10–14 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 2 caught (29%), 34 yds, 4.9 per throw729% · 34yRight, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 4 caught (67%), 75 yds, 12.5 per throw667% · 75yRight, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 3 caught (60%), 77 yds, 15.4 per throw560% · 77yRight, 30+ air yards: 6 throws (3%), 2 caught (33%), 103 yds, 17.2 per throw633% · 103y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction180 carries

Left
28%
2.9 YPC · 44% succ.
Middle
63%
3.9 YPC · 39% succ.
Right
9%
5.3 YPC · 44% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced223 carries

Left
18%
6.8 YPC · 40% succ.
Middle
68%
5.4 YPC · 38% succ.
Right
14%
5.2 YPC · 59% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Tosh Lupoi

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
2EJ CaminongQBSO6' 2"220Seattle, WA
3Jaron-Keawe SagapoluteleQBSO6' 3"225Ewa Beach, HI
11Jackson BrousseauQBJR6' 4"225Lehi, UT
14Dominic IngrassiaQBSO6' 4"215Novato, CA
17Alonzo EsparzaQBFR6' 0"190Los Alamitos, CA
18Nainoa LopesQBFR6' 3"185Honolulu, HI
1Carter VargasRBSO5' 11"205Santa Maria, CA
13Victor SantinoRBFR5' 11"200Los Angeles, CA
20Ashten EmoryRBSO5' 11"210Dallas, TX
21Carson Perry-SmithRBSO5' 11"195Granite Bay, CA
24Adam MohammedRBJR6' 0"220Glendale, AZ
25Anthony LeagueRBFR6' 0"215Long Beach, CA
33Dean-Taylor ChapmanRBJR5' 9"185San Leandro, CA
4Jordan KingWRSR6' 2"215Beaverton, OR
5QuaRon AdamsWRSR5' 7"165Phoenix, AZ
6Kyion GrayesWRJR6' 0"190Phoenix, AZ
7Chase HendricksWRSR6' 0"195St. Louis, MO
9Ian StrongWRSR6' 4"215Coram, NY
10Cooper PerryWRSO6' 1"200Scottsdale, AZ
15Mark HamperWRJR6' 2"205West Linn, OR
16Kai MezaWRFR6' 1"190Herriman, UT
19Trevor RogersWRSO6' 3"195Lafayette, CA
80EJ MorganWRFR6' 0"160Fresno, CA
81Tyree SamsWRFR5' 8"180Fresno, CA
82Cole BosciaWRSR6' 3"215Danville, CA
87Meyer SwinneyWRFR6' 3"205Edina, MN
0Dorian ThomasTEJR6' 4"255Kent, WA
22Taimane PurcellTEFR6' 4"245Aiea, HI
39Michael CooleyTEJR6' 7"230Piedmont, CA
44John Tofi Jr.TEFR6' 5"240San Francisco, CA
85Mason MiniTEJR6' 4"245Pacifica, CA
88Sosaia NoaTEFR6' 3"225Sacramento, CA
90Jack OlyphantTESO6' 4"240San Rafael, CA
51Kahlee TafaiOLJR6' 5"340Inglewood, CA
52Elisha FaamatuainuOLFR6' 4"335Murrieta, CA
55Daniel McMorrisOLFR6' 6"265Norman, OK
56Tyson RuffinsOLJR6' 2"310Carson, CA
58Ashton RiveraOLJR6' 2"315Cape Coral, FL
60Roger VanderhoefOLFR6' 7"385Sacramento, CA
65Justin HasenhuetlOLFR6' 5"290Cologne, Germany
66Sam BjerkeOLSO6' 5"310San Diego, CA
68Jojo GenovaOLFR6' 5"285Huntington Beach, CA
70Mykeal RabessOLJR6' 6"320Miami, FL
72Ben HowardOLFR6' 4"325Lehi, UT
73Kamo'I Huihui-WhiteOLFR6' 5"330Honolulu, HI
74Michael KlisiewiczOLFR6' 6"310Brentwood, CA
75Jacob AropOLSO6' 6"330Omaha, NE
76Bastian SwinneyOLSR6' 6"315Edina, MN
77Jimothy Lewis Jr.OLSO6' 6"315Ridgeland, MS
78Lamar RobinsonOLSR6' 3"290Alexandria, VA
43Lucky SchirmerDLFR6' 2"290Pomona, CA
44Jericho JohnsonDLSO6' 4"345Suisun City, CA
55BJ CanadyDLSO6' 5"280Topeka, KS
56Legend JourneyDLSO6' 2"275Arlington, TX
59Nemyah TelonaDLFR6' 1"310Antioch, CA
61Frank Fanua Jr.DLFR6' 3"220San Diego, CA
91Dabe NwudeDLFR6' 2"260Palos Verdes, CA
93R.J. StephensDLJR6' 1"285East Palo Alto, CA
94Stanley Saole-McKenzieDLSR6' 2"350Kahului, HI
97Michael-Anthony OkwuraDLSO6' 3"310Houston, TX
98Nate BurrellDLSR6' 2"285Los Angeles, CA
99Ashun ShepphardDLSR6' 3"290Brandon, MS
3Kamar MothudiLBSO6' 3"245Los Angeles, CA
4Justin BeadlesLBSR6' 5"275Atlanta, GA
6Emmanuel OkoyeLBSO6' 5"245Lagos, Nigeria
9AJ TuiteleLBFR6' 2"220North Las Vegas, NV
15Joshua PierceLBJR6' 4"265Detroit, MI
18Serigne TounkaraLBSO6' 3"245Houston, TX
19Odera OkakaLBSR6' 4"230Antioch, CA
21Aaron HamptonLBJR6' 1"235Anchorage, AK
32Tristan JerniganLBSO6' 0"230Tupelo, MS
33JD McKinleyLBFR6' 2"250Corona, CA
36Jude McLellanLBSO6' 3"240Carlsbad, CA
41Jaxon PyattLBFR6' 2"230Wheat Ridge, CO
45Beckham BarneyLBFR6' 1"225Mesa, AZ
57BJ JonesLBJR6' 2"230Oakland, CA
1Ricky FletcherDBSR6' 3"210Durant, MS
2Kingston LopaDBSO6' 5"210Sacramento, CA
5Marquis Groves-KillebrewDBSR6' 0"190Atlanta, GA
7Daniel HarrisDBSR6' 3"200Miami, FL
11Dayday AupiuDBSO6' 2"170Oxnard, CA
14Aiden ManutaiDBSO5' 11"205Waipahu, HI
16Michael Hurst Jr.DBSR6' 0"200Los Angeles, CA
17Jordan SanfordDBSR6' 0"195Arlington, TX
20Cam SidneyDBSR5' 11"185Riverside, CA
22Tristan DunnDBSR6' 5"210Sumner, WA
23Isaiah CrosbyDBJR5' 10"190Fort Worth, TX
24Quimari ShemwellDBJR5' 11"175Los Angeles, CA
25Khamani HudsonDBFR6' 0"185Houston, TX
26Niles DavisDBFR5' 11"190Los Angeles, CA
28Tre' HarrisonDBFR6' 0"190Artesia, CA
38Nate EscaladaDBJR6' 0"195Santa Clara, CA
33Towns McGoughPKSO6' 0"200Auburn, AL
37Erik PetersPKFR6' 1"195Houston, TX
91Chase MeyerPKSR5' 10"185Los Angeles, CA
27Jacob JohnsonPJR6' 4"250Livermore, CA
29Angus DaviesPSR6' 1"210Torquay, Australia
50David BirdLSSR6' 0"205Phoenix, AZ
53Jordan FrankeLSJR5' 10"205Verona, WI
59Ewan ArechaederraLSSO5' 11"210Danville, CA

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2015 (+6.6, #36) · worst: 2022 (-3.6, #84)
-50+5FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#82
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far3-42-2#86-4.9-1.0-3.9
20257-64-4#82-2.6-0.8-1.8
20246-72-6#67+0.5-2.1+2.7
20236-74-5#67-0.7+2.9-3.7
20224-82-7#84-3.6-3.8+0.2
20215-74-5#77-1.5-4.6+3.2
20201-31-3#87-2.8-6.5+3.7
20198-54-5#56+0.4-5.4+5.8
20187-64-5#78-0.8-6.2+5.4
20175-72-7#67-0.4+0.2-0.6
20165-73-6#62+0.1+9.3-9.2
20158-54-5#36+6.6+9.0-2.4
20145-73-6#69-0.9+8.5-9.4

California's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Oct 21, 10:45 AM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →