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ACC · 2026

Duke Blue Devils

Head coach Manny Diaz · Wallace Wade Stadium
4-21-2 in conference
TDC Rank
#50
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
+5.5
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
+2.2
55th in FBS
Defense
+3.3
45th in FBS
Schedule so far
-5.4
80th toughest
Projected
6.5-5.5
bowl-eligible 84%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

+5.5 now, +2.2 preseason · up 3 spots since preseason
0+5+10FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8#50

Final record odds

6.5-5.5 expected · most likely 7-5 (33%)
4-814%5-733%6-633%7-515%8-49-3

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Walker Eget
QB · SR · 79th in FBS
1229yds
8 TD · 2 INT
Rushing
Nate Sheppard
RB · SO · 6th in FBS
820yds
138 car · 8 TD
Receiving
Nate Sheppard
RB · SO · 232nd in FBS
259yds
28 rec · 4 TD
Tackles
Nick Morris Jr.
LB · SR · 346th in FBS
33tkl
2 TFL
Sacks
Kevin O'Connor
DE · JR · 95th in FBS
3sacks
1 hurries
Interceptions
Evan Smith
CB · SR · 109th in FBS
1INT
1 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 5vs82TulaneW 17–3 ›+6.5—ACC Network
2Sep 12@49IllinoisW 31–27 ›+13.6—FS1
3Sep 19vs104StanfordCONFW 35–7 ›+11.0—CW
4Sep 26vsWilliam & Mary FCSW 62–7 ›-3.3—ACCNX
5—Bye
6Oct 10@67Georgia TechCONFL 25–28 ›+2.6—ESPN2
7Oct 17vs54North CarolinaCONFL 20–24 ›-3.7—ESPN2
8Oct 23@34VirginiaCONFVirginia −7.5 · o/u 47.5—31%ESPN
9Oct 31vs85Boston CollegeCONFDuke −13.9 · o/u 46.5—82%CW
10Nov 7@64NC StateCONFNC State −0.5 · o/u 58.4—49%
11Nov 14@3MiamiCONFMiami −24.3 · o/u 60.3—5%
12Nov 20vs58ClemsonCONFDuke −6.0 · o/u 45.0—65%ESPN
13Nov 28@22Wake ForestCONFWake Forest −11.8 · o/u 51.4—22%

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.23530th+0.07161st
Success rate43.1%72nd40.7%62nd
Explosiveness1.30635th1.14529th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate42.4%81st41.2%64th
Rushing success rate41.8%95th37.7%37th
Passing success rate43.0%68th44.2%106th
Explosive run rate16.4%38th7.5%9th
Explosive pass rate12.9%35th7.0%17th
Line yards / carry3.2944th2.6419th
Opportunity rate40.3%66th34.9%45th
Stuff rate15.9%59th17.8%68th
Sack rate0.6%1st4.2%106th
3rd-down conversion46.1%31st33.3%17th
Red-zone TD rate56.0%94th69.2%110th
Havoc rate9.5%16th13.2%82nd
Box score · season totals
Points / game31.752nd16.018th
Yards / game442.737th292.721st
Yards / play6.2341st4.8033rd
Pass yards / game233.267th200.257th
Yards / pass att.7.3078th6.7556th
Completion %60.7%92nd62.4%84th
Rush yards / game209.522nd92.518th
Yards / carry5.4018th3.1722nd
3rd-down conv. %46.5%29th29.2%10th
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)0.5010th0.83116th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)0.332nd2.1757th
Penalty yards / game73.8123rd76.76th

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
7.8
107th of 138
YAC per catch
6.6
22nd of 138
Deep shots (20+)
15%
62nd of 138
Shotgun
97%
49th of 138
No-huddle
12%
125th of 138
QB pressured
8%
120th of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
12%
92nd of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
5.1
83rd of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws183 throws charted

60% comp7.8 avg. depth6.6 YAC/catch15% 20+ air yds11–2 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 14 throws (8%), 13 caught (93%), 89 yds, 6.4 per throw1493% · 89yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 16 throws (9%), 11 caught (69%), 88 yds, 5.5 per throw1669% · 88yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 13 throws (7%), 8 caught (62%), 85 yds, 6.5 per throw1362% · 85yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 4 caught (57%), 60 yds, 8.6 per throw757% · 60yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 9 throws (5%), 6 caught (67%), 127 yds, 14.1 per throw967% · 127yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 10 throws (5%), 7 caught (70%), 189 yds, 18.9 per throw1070% · 189yLeft, 30+ air yards: 6 throws (3%), 1 caught (17%), 32 yds, 5.3 per throw617% · 32yMiddle, Behind air yards: 3 throws (2%), 2 caught (67%), -1 yds, -0.3 per throw367% · -1yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 21 throws (11%), 16 caught (76%), 167 yds, 8.0 per throw2176% · 167yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 8 throws (4%), 6 caught (75%), 67 yds, 8.4 per throw875% · 67yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 8 throws (4%), 5 caught (63%), 91 yds, 11.4 per throw863% · 91yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw20% · 0yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 29 yds, 14.5 per throw250% · 29yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 1 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yRight, Behind air yards: 18 throws (10%), 14 caught (78%), 88 yds, 4.9 per throw1878% · 88yRight, 0–4 air yards: 14 throws (8%), 8 caught (57%), 60 yds, 4.3 per throw1457% · 60yRight, 5–9 air yards: 10 throws (5%), 4 caught (40%), 39 yds, 3.9 per throw1040% · 39yRight, 10–14 air yards: 10 throws (5%), 4 caught (40%), 75 yds, 7.5 per throw1040% · 75yRight, 15–19 air yards: 3 throws (2%), 1 caught (33%), 35 yds, 11.7 per throw333% · 35yRight, 20–29 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 2 caught (29%), 49 yds, 7.0 per throw729% · 49yRight, 30+ air yards: 1 throws (1%), 1 caught (100%), 36 yds, 36.0 per throw1100% · 36y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on173 throws charted

62% comp7.0 avg. depth5.1 YAC/catch7% 20+ air yds7–1 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 13 throws (8%), 9 caught (69%), 77 yds, 5.9 per throw1369% · 77yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 16 throws (9%), 10 caught (63%), 92 yds, 5.8 per throw1663% · 92yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 17 throws (10%), 10 caught (59%), 92 yds, 5.4 per throw1759% · 92yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 13 throws (8%), 6 caught (46%), 108 yds, 8.3 per throw1346% · 108yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 2 caught (40%), 31 yds, 6.2 per throw540% · 31yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 3 throws (2%), 2 caught (67%), 103 yds, 34.3 per throw367% · 103yLeft, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 30 yds, 15.0 per throw250% · 30yMiddle, Behind air yards: 2 throws (1%), 2 caught (100%), 10 yds, 5.0 per throw2100% · 10yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 13 throws (8%), 8 caught (62%), 60 yds, 4.6 per throw1362% · 60yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 6 caught (86%), 56 yds, 8.0 per throw786% · 56yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 11 throws (6%), 7 caught (64%), 113 yds, 10.3 per throw1164% · 113yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 3 caught (75%), 53 yds, 13.3 per throw475% · 53yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 3 throws (2%), 1 caught (33%), 28 yds, 9.3 per throw333% · 28yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 1 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yRight, Behind air yards: 13 throws (8%), 10 caught (77%), 25 yds, 1.9 per throw1377% · 25yRight, 0–4 air yards: 17 throws (10%), 10 caught (59%), 34 yds, 2.0 per throw1759% · 34yRight, 5–9 air yards: 19 throws (11%), 15 caught (79%), 155 yds, 8.2 per throw1979% · 155yRight, 10–14 air yards: 9 throws (5%), 5 caught (56%), 67 yds, 7.4 per throw956% · 67yRight, 15–19 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 15 yds, 7.5 per throw250% · 15yRight, 20–29 air yards: 1 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yRight, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw20% · 0y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction224 carries

Left
25%
8.3 YPC · 63% succ.
Middle
45%
4.2 YPC · 33% succ.
Right
30%
5.9 YPC · 49% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced158 carries

Left
20%
3.8 YPC · 39% succ.
Middle
53%
4.0 YPC · 37% succ.
Right
28%
4.2 YPC · 41% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Manny Diaz

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
2Walker EgetQBSR6' 3"235Santa Clarita, CA
10Dan MahanQBFR6' 2"200Burlington, NC
11Ari PatuQBSR6' 4"230Folsom, CA
12Blaine HipaQBSR6' 2"200Kailua, HI
13Terry Walker IIIQBFR6' 4"190Indianapolis, IN
16Lawrence GardnerQBFR6' 0"200Dallas, TX
0CJ Campbell Jr.RBSR5' 10"200Kaplan, LA
20Nate SheppardRBSO5' 10"205Mandeville, LA
22Jayvian TanelusRBFR5' 10"195Naples, FL
24Wilhelm Daal IIRBSR6' 1"215Amityville, NY
26CJ GiversRBFR5' 11"200Roswell, GA
28Cole DensonRBSO6' 0"200Rye, NY
83Paul Holyfield Jr.RBSR6' 0"200Los Angeles, CA
1Jamien LittleWRFR6' 2"185Hickory, NC
3Blake RohrerWRSR6' 3"215Woodbury, MN
4Jaivon SolomonWRFR6' 1"190Gray, GA
5Javen NicholasWRSR5' 9"190New Orleans, LA
6Jonah BurtonWRSR5' 11"210Simi Valley, CA
7Kavon SimmonsWRFR6' 1"190Wake Forest, NC
8Jayden MooreWRSO5' 8"190Sykesville, MD
9Kavon ConciauroWRFR6' 4"200Reidsville, GA
17Jared RichardsonWRSR6' 2"220Blakeslee, PA
18Brody KeefeWRFR6' 3"200Charlotte, NC
21Qeanu JohnsonWRFR5' 11"195Hamden, CT
88Paxon KetteringWRSO6' 4"200Bend, OR
89Jackson MaggioreWRFR6' 0"180San Diego, CA
15Jake TaylorTESR6' 5"240Apex, NC
44Nate KuriskyTESR6' 3"245Leesburg, VA
46Tony BoggsTEJR6' 4"295Wartrace, TN
80Benjamin MoseleyTEFR6' 4"200Centre, AL
81Brett ElliottTESO6' 3"240Holliston, MA
84Jack GaskinsTEFR6' 3"240Mclean, VA
85Jeremiah HasleyTESR6' 3"250Gibsonia, PA
54Daniel BoydOLFR6' 2"305Las Vegas, NV
55Ryan DalyOLSO6' 0"295Venice, FL
56Nick Del GrandeOLSR6' 4"300Lancaster, PA
60Sean StoverOLFR6' 4"305Prosper, TX
62Cole AllenOLFR6' 5"300Jackson, MS
63Bradley SmithOLSO6' 2"305Newnan, GA
64Jordan LarsenOLSR6' 3"310Harrisburg, SD
65Kai JacobowitzOLFR6' 7"315Carlsbad, CA
66Caleb DorrisOLJR6' 6"310White House, TN
71Jamin BrownOLFR6' 3"300Gadsden, AL
72Matt CraycraftOLSR6' 3"305Dallas, TX
74Reagan McCranieOLJR6' 2"315Rutherfordton, NC
75Micah SahakianOLSR6' 5"320Mount Prospect, IL
76Gemyel AllenOLSO6' 3"320Buford, GA
77Braden MillerOLSR6' 6"315Aurora, CO
78Nathan KutufarisOLFR6' 5"300Springfield, PA
79Roman FinaOLFR6' 4"295Tucson, AZ
10Tyshon ReedDEJR6' 3"250Moultrie, GA
12Bryce DavisDESO6' 3"265Greensboro, NC
13Obinna UmehDEFR6' 3"230Houston, TX
15Kevin O'ConnorDEJR6' 4"245Easton, MD
18Kobe SmithDESO6' 3"225Chattanooga, TN
43Semaj TurnerDESO6' 3"255Winston-Salem, NC
90Tommy RupleyDEFR6' 4"240Acton, MA
93Sampson OnuohaDEFR6' 3"240London, England
98Jaylen CarlDESO6' 4"250High Point, NC
44David AndersonDTJR6' 4"290Hampton, VA
50Chadwicke Cannon Jr.DTFR6' 1"280Port Orange, FL
55Julius ColumbusDTFR6' 1"285Gainesville, GA
88Bariate KaraDTFR6' 5"290Loganville, GA
91Owen WafleDTSO6' 2"285Middletown, NJ
95Preston WatsonDTJR6' 1"300Lake Mary, FL
97Ayden CainDTFR6' 1"280Gainesville, GA
99Dakota QuinonezDTSR6' 1"290Moore, SC
7Nick Morris Jr.LBSR6' 3"235Fairfield, CT
11Derrick Brown Jr.LBSO6' 2"225Waxhaw, NC
19Jon MorrisLBSO6' 2"215Fairfield, CT
24Bradley GompersLBSO6' 5"230Pittsburgh, PA
30Will Felder Jr.LBFR6' 0"195Willingboro, NJ
31Elliott SchaperLBSO6' 3"220Austin, TX
32Tony GrimmerLBFR5' 11"205Alpine, UT
33Colsen GattenLBFR6' 1"220Pittsburgh, PA
34Luke MergottLBJR6' 3"225Berlin, MD
40Asher WassermanLBFR6' 2"225Hamden, CT
42Kendall JohnsonLBJR6' 3"225Gaithersburg, MD
0Dylan FlowersCBSR5' 10"185Playa Del Rey, CA
1Kyon LoudCBSO6' 2"190Richmond, CA
3Landan CallahanCBSO5' 11"185Rural Hall, NC
4Evan SmithCBSR5' 10"185Birmingham, AL
5Kimari RobinsonCBJR5' 10"180Miramar, FL
9Che OjarikreCBSR6' 2"205Alpharetta, GA
23Kolbe HarmonCBFR5' 10"180Brentwood, TN
26Tyson SanfordCBFR5' 11"195Suwanee, GA
28Kaleb LanierCBFR6' 0"190Decatur, GA
2Patrick Smith-YoungSSR5' 9"184Sugar Land, TX
6Leon Griffin IIISJR5' 11"195Virginia Beach, VA
8DaShawn StoneSJR6' 3"195Asheville, NC
21KD CottonSFR5' 9"185Charlotte, NC
29Brady WinterSFR5' 11"200New York, NY
35Andrew PellicciottaSSO5' 11"200Malvern, PA
37Lyrik PettisSFR6' 0"195Shelby, NC
25Gavin StrangePKFR5' 11"175Southlake, TX
31Mika LevyPKFR6' 3"240Mclean, VA
39Cosme SalasPKSO5' 7"185Palmetto Bay, FL
41Kade ReynoldsonPJR6' 2"195Gold Coast, Australia
49Jack RoniloLSJR6' 1"215Birmingham, AL
52Jake FitzgeraldLSSR6' 0"205La Canada, CA

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2023 (+7.0, #26) · worst: 2021 (-13.6, #122)
-100+10FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#44
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far4-21-2#50+5.5+2.2+3.3
20259-56-2#44+4.3+7.5-3.2
20249-45-3#53+2.10.0+2.1
20238-54-4#26+7.0+1.7+5.3
20229-45-3#44+3.9+2.9+1.1
20213-90-8#122-13.6-6.0-7.6
20202-91-9#112-9.9-3.7-6.2
20195-73-5#63-0.6-1.4+0.8
20188-53-5#43+4.1+1.8+2.3
20177-63-5#37+4.5-0.7+5.1
20164-81-7#74-2.2-3.3+1.1
20158-54-4#61+1.9+1.6+0.3
20149-45-3#36+5.8+3.0+2.8

Duke's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Oct 21, 10:45 AM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →