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Mountain West · 2026

Air Force Falcons

Head coach Troy Calhoun · Falcon Stadium
5-13-1 in conference
TDC Rank
#83
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
-4.4
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
-2.6
85th in FBS
Defense
-1.8
82nd in FBS
Schedule so far
-11.8
121st toughest
Projected
8.5-3.5
bowl-eligible >99%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

-4.4 now, -9.1 preseason · up 13 spots since preseason
-10-50FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8#83

Final record odds

8.5-3.5 expected · most likely 9-3 (35%)
6-613%7-533%8-435%9-314%10-211-1

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Liam Szarka
QB · 172nd in FBS
296yds
1 TD · 4 INT
Rushing
Liam Szarka
QB · 93rd in FBS
391yds
92 car · 7 TD
Receiving
Simon Kibbee
TE · SR · 565th in FBS
121yds
7 rec · 0 TD
Tackles
Blake Fletcher
LB · SR · 11th in FBS
64tkl
2.5 TFL
Sacks
Max Mustell
DB · SO · 200th in FBS
2sacks
1 hurries
Interceptions
Blake Fletcher
LB · SR · 28th in FBS
2INT
1 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 5vsDuquesne FCSW 34–0 ›-8.5—MW+
2Sep 12vs69North Dakota StateCONFL 32–38 ›-9.5—FS1
3—Bye
4Sep 26@106NevadaCONFW 36–33 ›-4.0—FS1
5Oct 3vs90NavyW 14–9 ›-4.6—CBS
6Oct 10@132Northern IllinoisCONFW 28–7 ›+4.7—CBSSN
7Oct 17vs84UNLVCONFW 41–31 ›+1.8—CBSSN
8Oct 23@123WyomingCONFAir Force −8.1 · o/u 46.4—71%CW
9Oct 31vs78UConnAir Force −2.2 · o/u 56.7—56%MW+
10Nov 7@72ArmyArmy −7.9 · o/u 55.2—30%CBS
11Nov 14vs122San José StateCONFAir Force −15.4 · o/u 48.7—85%CBSSN
12Nov 20vs137UTEPCONFAir Force −25.4 · o/u 53.3—96%CW
13Nov 28@43New MexicoCONFNew Mexico −15.1 · o/u 51.9—16%CW

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.23433rd+0.03644th
Success rate48.7%23rd38.0%41st
Explosiveness1.065135th1.26582nd
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate49.1%21st38.7%42nd
Rushing success rate51.0%13th39.2%43rd
Passing success rate37.0%119th38.1%45th
Explosive run rate13.5%81st13.3%71st
Explosive pass rate17.6%3rd9.4%59th
Line yards / carry3.675th3.1082nd
Opportunity rate42.5%35th37.3%64th
Stuff rate9.0%2nd16.9%79th
Sack rate5.6%88th5.4%69th
3rd-down conversion53.6%12th41.2%92nd
Red-zone TD rate68.0%47th57.1%62nd
Havoc rate6.4%1st14.4%59th
Box score · season totals
Points / game30.862nd19.738th
Yards / game408.057th295.723rd
Yards / play5.6478th5.3376th
Pass yards / game65.0138th172.324th
Yards / pass att.7.6065th7.0368th
Completion %49.0%136th57.1%32nd
Rush yards / game343.02nd123.343rd
Yards / carry5.4018th4.1679th
3rd-down conv. %52.9%9th35.2%51st
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)0.6722nd1.1766th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)0.505th1.33112th
Penalty yards / game44.823rd36.0132nd

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
13.8
2nd of 138
YAC per catch
3.7
134th of 138
Deep shots (20+)
26%
4th of 138
Shotgun
38%
138th of 138
No-huddle
5%
132nd of 138
QB pressured
16%
26th of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
14%
85th of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
5.7
37th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws46 throws charted

48% comp13.8 avg. depth3.7 YAC/catch26% 20+ air yds3–4 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 3 throws (7%), 2 caught (67%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw367% · 0yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 1 throws (2%), 1 caught (100%), 11 yds, 11.0 per throw1100% · 11yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 2 throws (4%), 2 caught (100%), 26 yds, 13.0 per throw2100% · 26yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 4 throws (9%), 3 caught (75%), 40 yds, 10.0 per throw475% · 40yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 1 throws (2%), 1 caught (100%), 17 yds, 17.0 per throw1100% · 17yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 1 throws (2%), 1 caught (100%), 35 yds, 35.0 per throw1100% · 35yLeft, 30+ air yards: noneMiddle, Behind air yards: noneMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 2 throws (4%), 1 caught (50%), 8 yds, 4.0 per throw250% · 8yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 1 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 2 throws (4%), 2 caught (100%), 37 yds, 18.5 per throw2100% · 37yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (13%), 3 caught (50%), 59 yds, 9.8 per throw650% · 59yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (11%), 3 caught (60%), 80 yds, 16.0 per throw560% · 80yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (7%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw30% · 0yRight, Behind air yards: noneRight, 0–4 air yards: 6 throws (13%), 3 caught (50%), 9 yds, 1.5 per throw650% · 9yRight, 5–9 air yards: 3 throws (7%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw30% · 0yRight, 10–14 air yards: 1 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yRight, 15–19 air yards: 2 throws (4%), 1 caught (50%), 18 yds, 9.0 per throw250% · 18yRight, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (4%), 2 caught (100%), 50 yds, 25.0 per throw2100% · 50yRight, 30+ air yards: 1 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on138 throws charted

57% comp10.5 avg. depth5.7 YAC/catch18% 20+ air yds4–5 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 7 throws (5%), 6 caught (86%), 32 yds, 4.6 per throw786% · 32yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 11 throws (8%), 10 caught (91%), 46 yds, 4.2 per throw1191% · 46yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 8 throws (6%), 6 caught (75%), 46 yds, 5.8 per throw875% · 46yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 8 throws (6%), 2 caught (25%), 29 yds, 3.6 per throw825% · 29yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 28 yds, 14.0 per throw250% · 28yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (4%), 1 caught (20%), 25 yds, 5.0 per throw520% · 25yLeft, 30+ air yards: 8 throws (6%), 3 caught (38%), 142 yds, 17.8 per throw838% · 142yMiddle, Behind air yards: 1 throws (1%), 1 caught (100%), 10 yds, 10.0 per throw1100% · 10yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 8 throws (6%), 4 caught (50%), 67 yds, 8.4 per throw850% · 67yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 7 throws (5%), 3 caught (43%), 23 yds, 3.3 per throw743% · 23yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 6 throws (4%), 5 caught (83%), 58 yds, 9.7 per throw683% · 58yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw20% · 0yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: noneMiddle, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (2%), 1 caught (33%), 68 yds, 22.7 per throw333% · 68yRight, Behind air yards: 11 throws (8%), 10 caught (91%), 72 yds, 6.5 per throw1191% · 72yRight, 0–4 air yards: 13 throws (9%), 11 caught (85%), 107 yds, 8.2 per throw1385% · 107yRight, 5–9 air yards: 19 throws (14%), 10 caught (53%), 90 yds, 4.7 per throw1953% · 90yRight, 10–14 air yards: 8 throws (6%), 5 caught (63%), 82 yds, 10.3 per throw863% · 82yRight, 15–19 air yards: 4 throws (3%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw40% · 0yRight, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 22 yds, 11.0 per throw250% · 22yRight, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (4%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw50% · 0y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction372 carries

Left
23%
5.6 YPC · 56% succ.
Middle
47%
5.3 YPC · 44% succ.
Right
30%
6.0 YPC · 60% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced166 carries

Left
24%
4.6 YPC · 35% succ.
Middle
54%
5.4 YPC · 48% succ.
Right
22%
3.5 YPC · 28% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Troy Calhoun

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
4Howard Fisher IVQB5' 11"170Wylie, TX
4Kemper HodgesQBSR6' 0"245Santa Rosa Beach, FL
5Evan MeddersQBSO5' 10"210Waxhaw, NC
11Josh JohnsonQBSR6' 2"190New Orleans, LA
13Maguire MartinQBSR6' 1"190Argyle, TX
14Cam ReddickQBFR6' 0"215Dyer, IN
2Owen AllenRBSR5' 11"215Southlake, TX
21Chase FerrellRBSO5' 6"170Houston, TX
32Grady KinseyRBFRGnadenhutten, OH
34Oswaldo MoralesRBSO5' 9"210Tomball, TX
44Rocco ContiRBSR5' 8"190Olmsted Falls, OH
24Luke RauhFBJR6' 0"210Enid, OK
27Price DavisFBSO6' 0"195Maryville, TN
28Gage LaDueFBJR5' 10"215Maryville, TN
45Omari EliasFBJR5' 9"205Wichita, KS
0Owen ChambersWRSR5' 10"195Dana Point, CA
3Matt LongWRJR5' 10"205Folsom, CA
8Jonah DawsonWRJR5' 9"170Rancho Cucamonga, CA
10Adam HrynciwWRSR6' 3"180Fremont, OH
18Mason HayesWRJR5' 11"210Normandy Park, WA
20Keegan SackWRSO5' 10"210Hurricane, WV
29Sylas Maiava-AlaimaloWRSO5' 9"195Oahu, HI
30Major QuinWRSO5' 10"185Jackson, MS
33Mason LoweWRJR5' 10"185Littleton, CO
36Astin HangeWRJR5' 10"175Kapolei, HI
89Noah McNairWRSO6' 0"205Sunnyside, WA
Calix LempWRFR6' 0"185Wadsworth, OH
80Simon KibbeeTESR6' 6"250Aurora, CO
81Dominic HenningTESO6' 3"245Aurora, CO
82Henry BarbischTESO6' 5"250Pittsburgh, PA
85Mitchell BlakesleeTESR6' 4"260The Woodlands, TX
87Harry CaskeyTEJR6' 2"240Ogallala, NE
52Nathan ElwoodOLSR6' 3"290Marysville, WA
53Michael RayOLSO6' 4"300Memphis, TN
54Justus PeralesOLJR6' 2"280Garland, TX
56Ian FisherOLSR6' 3"285Peachtree City, GA
57Brody SmithOLJR6' 3"290Jefferson City, MO
62Jonny BrambilaOLJR6' 3"300Murray, UT
63Eli CampbellOLSO6' 2"310Princeton, WV
64Caden RomoOLJR6' 3"245Wimberley, TX
67Cole AndersonOLSO6' 3"315Jacksonville, FL
71Marcus RoserOLJR6' 2"280Ashburn, VA
72Jon AshfordOLJR6' 2"320Edmond, OK
73Brandon NazworthOLJR6' 3"290Folsom, CA
75Alec FalkOLSR6' 5"315Monument, CO
76Alex BoydOLSO6' 4"280Maryville, TN
77Peyton KnoebelOLJR6' 4"300Arvada, CO
78Gary LassleyOLSO6' 4"300Frisco, TX
55Cullen DevineDLSO6' 3"225Austin, TX
59Chaz BarnettDLJR6' 5"260Highlands Ranch, CO
90Muhammad AlcineDLSO6' 2"255Lawrenceville, GA
95Noah DanielsDLSO6' 3"260Winter Park, FL
96Charlie GleasonDLSR6' 4"235Stillwater, MN
98Christian KrietzerDLSO6' 2"240Macon, GA
99Jayden OquendoDLSR6' 2"285Olathe, KS
18DeSean DavisDEJR6' 3"225Prosper, TX
34Jalen DavisDEJR6' 3"220Prosper, TX
48Antonio MenardDEJR6' 1"230Lakeville, MN
50Grady ForsytheDEJR6' 4"235Conifer, CO
53Ryan LippeDESO6' 4"250Hartville, OH
84Samuel Rhoades VDEJR6' 3"240Tulsa, OK
0Luke FisherLBSR6' 0"225Columbus, MS
6Blake FletcherLBSR6' 1"230Racine, WI
8Dallas DaleyLBSR6' 1"215Renton, WA
30Isaac HubertLBSR6' 1"225Canton, GA
32Andrew JurasekLBSO5' 11"235Westlake, TX
33Brody BujnochLBSR6' 1"235Hutto, TX
35Bryce BradenLBSO6' 2"225Stratford, TX
39Brodie MitchellLBJR6' 1"205Portland, TX
41Sam OaklandLBSO6' 2"225San Antonio, TX
43Seth McFarlandLBSO6' 0"235Longview, TX
44Jonah BowmanLBJR6' 0"235Prosper, TX
45Jaylin ReeseLBJR5' 11"235Woodbury, MN
47Jake KeplerLBJR6' 2"230Springfield, IL
51Vinnie CanosaLBJR6' 1"230Acworth, GA
2Korey JohnsonDBJR6' 0"195Glendale, AZ
3Kyle ChenDBJR6' 0"200Vancouver, WA
4Mikhail SeikenDBJR5' 11"190Takoma Park, MD
5Roger Jones Jr.DBJR5' 10"184Huntington, MD
7Nick BeckwithDBJR6' 0"205Lafayette, LA
10Jerome DrainDBSO6' 3"190Fulshear, TX
12Jax GatesDBSO5' 11"190Lincoln, NE
13Joseph KramlichDBSO5' 10"175Kulm, ND
14Tyshan MitchellDBSO5' 10"170Montgomery, NY
15Mikey InwehDBFR6' 4"205San Antonio, TX
19Houston HendrixDBSR6' 1"205Boerne, TX
21Clayton HartDBSO6' 1"195Henderson, TX
22Ehimen OyamendanDBSO5' 10"190La Crescenta, CA
23Cade PatersonDBSO5' 11"195Eastvale, CA
24Jordan Elie-StuartDBSO5' 11"170Tomball, TX
26Alexander PerezDBSO5' 10"200Henderson, NV
31Jayden MalbrancheDBSO5' 11"180Fort Myers, FL
36Max MustellDBSO5' 10"175Miami, FL
40Jaxon PaulsrudDBFR6' 0"190Cherokee, IA
39Jacob MedinaPKJR5' 10"170Chandler, AZ
90Carter CremascoliPKSO5' 11"210Mount Prospect, IL
91Rip PerezPSR6' 2"200Atlanta, GA
94Will DuncanPJR6' 0"220Katy, TX
98Rocco D'AngeloPJR5' 11"180Naples, FL
46Jake HelmsLSJR6' 0"210Austin, TX

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2019 (+8.4, #25) · worst: 2024 (-7.0, #106)
-10-50+5+10FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#95
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far5-13-1#83-4.4-2.6-1.8
20254-83-5#95-5.2+0.2-5.4
20245-73-4#106-7.0-8.0+1.0
20239-45-3#48+3.2-1.3+4.5
202210-35-3#36+4.8-1.6+6.4
202110-36-2#27+7.0+2.6+4.4
20203-32-2#33+5.3-2.7+8.0
201911-27-1#25+8.4+3.1+5.3
20185-73-5#73-0.4+0.6-1.1
20175-74-4#82-2.9+2.3-5.2
201610-35-3#52+2.7+3.4-0.7
20158-66-2#60+2.1+2.0+0.2
201410-35-3#64-0.10.0-0.1

Air Force's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Oct 21, 10:45 AM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →