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Mountain West · 2026

UNLV Rebels

Head coach Dan Mullen · Allegiant Stadium
4-32-1 in conference
TDC Rank
#84
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
-4.4
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
-3.4
91st in FBS
Defense
-1.1
76th in FBS
Schedule so far
-5.2
78th toughest
Projected
7.4-4.6
bowl-eligible 98%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

-4.4 now, -3.6 preseason · down 7 spots since preseason
-50FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8#84

Final record odds

7.4-4.6 expected · most likely 8-4 (41%)
5-713%6-637%7-541%8-47%9-3

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Jackson Arnold
QB · SR · 55th in FBS
1391yds
10 TD · 2 INT
Rushing
Jai'Den Thomas
RB · SR · 32nd in FBS
543yds
112 car · 3 TD
Receiving
Kayden McGee
WR · SO · 137th in FBS
330yds
16 rec · 4 TD
Tackles
Jake Pope
S · SR · 13th in FBS
63tkl
1.5 TFL
Sacks
Tre Fulton
DB · SO · 70th in FBS
3.5sacks
0 hurries
Interceptions
Mumu Bin-Wahad
DB · SR · 8th in FBS
3INT
4 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Aug 29vs60MemphisL 21–27 ›-6.9—FOX
1Sep 5@118Hawai'iCONFW 21–6 ›+4.3—CW
2Sep 12@53North TexasL 6–44 ›-20.7—ESPNU
3—Bye
4Sep 26@131AkronW 38–10 ›+9.3—ESPN+
5Oct 3vs86CaliforniaW 39–31 ›-0.7—CBSSN
6Oct 10vs69North Dakota StateCONFW 13–7 ›+2.5—CW
7Oct 17@83Air ForceCONFL 31–41 ›-10.6—CBSSN
8—Bye
9Oct 31vs132Northern IllinoisCONFUNLV −19.4 · o/u 50.2—90%CBSSN
10Nov 7vs123WyomingCONFUNLV −15.6 · o/u 44.8—85%CBSSN
11Nov 14@43New MexicoCONFNew Mexico −15.1 · o/u 50.3—16%CW
12Nov 21@122San José StateCONFUNLV −7.8 · o/u 47.1—70%CBSSN
13Nov 28vs106NevadaCONFUNLV −10.1 · o/u 47.4—75%CBSSN

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.08994th+0.07263rd
Success rate38.3%123rd40.5%58th
Explosiveness1.24765th1.23969th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate38.5%122nd40.4%56th
Rushing success rate37.2%126th47.4%122nd
Passing success rate40.0%92nd32.7%7th
Explosive run rate14.2%66th18.1%131st
Explosive pass rate8.8%98th10.7%87th
Line yards / carry3.0884th3.59135th
Opportunity rate36.4%105th43.5%125th
Stuff rate16.3%64th13.8%121st
Sack rate7.2%103rd7.1%29th
3rd-down conversion42.3%62nd39.1%67th
Red-zone TD rate52.6%103rd55.0%52nd
Havoc rate13.6%81st13.5%72nd
Box score · season totals
Points / game24.196th23.771st
Yards / game370.686th381.3100th
Yards / play5.3896th5.4987th
Pass yards / game199.3101st198.754th
Yards / pass att.7.3078th6.6952nd
Completion %57.4%118th55.3%16th
Rush yards / game171.352nd182.6112th
Yards / carry4.4071st4.88115th
3rd-down conv. %41.4%65th38.5%84th
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)1.2975th1.2957th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)2.43105th2.2951st
Penalty yards / game65.6104th70.419th

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
10.5
20th of 138
YAC per catch
3.3
137th of 138
Deep shots (20+)
14%
65th of 138
Shotgun
95%
75th of 138
No-huddle
24%
108th of 138
QB pressured
15%
43rd of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
12%
96th of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
5.2
69th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws178 throws charted

57% comp10.5 avg. depth3.3 YAC/catch14% 20+ air yds9–4 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 7 throws (4%), 7 caught (100%), 47 yds, 6.7 per throw7100% · 47yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 10 throws (6%), 5 caught (50%), 31 yds, 3.1 per throw1050% · 31yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 19 throws (11%), 10 caught (53%), 101 yds, 5.3 per throw1953% · 101yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 2 caught (40%), 24 yds, 4.8 per throw540% · 24yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 3 throws (2%), 1 caught (33%), 19 yds, 6.3 per throw333% · 19yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 3 caught (60%), 101 yds, 20.2 per throw560% · 101yLeft, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 44 yds, 22.0 per throw250% · 44yMiddle, Behind air yards: 2 throws (1%), 2 caught (100%), 8 yds, 4.0 per throw2100% · 8yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 9 throws (5%), 7 caught (78%), 36 yds, 4.0 per throw978% · 36yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 13 throws (7%), 5 caught (38%), 41 yds, 3.2 per throw1338% · 41yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 15 throws (8%), 11 caught (73%), 132 yds, 8.8 per throw1573% · 132yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 10 throws (6%), 5 caught (50%), 96 yds, 9.6 per throw1050% · 96yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 3 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw30% · 0yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 3 caught (75%), 140 yds, 35.0 per throw475% · 140yRight, Behind air yards: 12 throws (7%), 7 caught (58%), 4 yds, 0.3 per throw1258% · 4yRight, 0–4 air yards: 11 throws (6%), 9 caught (82%), 37 yds, 3.4 per throw1182% · 37yRight, 5–9 air yards: 20 throws (11%), 11 caught (55%), 88 yds, 4.4 per throw2055% · 88yRight, 10–14 air yards: 12 throws (7%), 6 caught (50%), 89 yds, 7.4 per throw1250% · 89yRight, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 3 caught (43%), 49 yds, 7.0 per throw743% · 49yRight, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 28 yds, 14.0 per throw250% · 28yRight, 30+ air yards: 7 throws (4%), 4 caught (57%), 176 yds, 25.1 per throw757% · 176y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on195 throws charted

54% comp9.4 avg. depth5.2 YAC/catch13% 20+ air yds9–8 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 15 throws (8%), 12 caught (80%), 46 yds, 3.1 per throw1580% · 46yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 17 throws (9%), 11 caught (65%), 55 yds, 3.2 per throw1765% · 55yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 18 throws (9%), 11 caught (61%), 86 yds, 4.8 per throw1861% · 86yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 12 throws (6%), 6 caught (50%), 116 yds, 9.7 per throw1250% · 116yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 11 throws (6%), 3 caught (27%), 63 yds, 5.7 per throw1127% · 63yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 2 caught (40%), 41 yds, 8.2 per throw540% · 41yLeft, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw40% · 0yMiddle, Behind air yards: 3 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw30% · 0yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 8 throws (4%), 5 caught (63%), 26 yds, 3.3 per throw863% · 26yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 3 caught (60%), 58 yds, 11.6 per throw560% · 58yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 4 caught (67%), 67 yds, 11.2 per throw667% · 67yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 12 throws (6%), 6 caught (50%), 124 yds, 10.3 per throw1250% · 124yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 3 throws (2%), 1 caught (33%), 26 yds, 8.7 per throw333% · 26yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 46 yds, 23.0 per throw250% · 46yRight, Behind air yards: 12 throws (6%), 12 caught (100%), 63 yds, 5.3 per throw12100% · 63yRight, 0–4 air yards: 21 throws (11%), 13 caught (62%), 79 yds, 3.8 per throw2162% · 79yRight, 5–9 air yards: 12 throws (6%), 6 caught (50%), 51 yds, 4.3 per throw1250% · 51yRight, 10–14 air yards: 13 throws (7%), 2 caught (15%), 25 yds, 1.9 per throw1315% · 25yRight, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 6 caught (100%), 193 yds, 32.2 per throw6100% · 193yRight, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 4 caught (80%), 104 yds, 20.8 per throw580% · 104yRight, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (3%), 1 caught (20%), 48 yds, 9.6 per throw520% · 48y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction246 carries

Left
18%
4.7 YPC · 41% succ.
Middle
59%
5.2 YPC · 40% succ.
Right
24%
6.5 YPC · 43% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced243 carries

Left
16%
6.9 YPC · 54% succ.
Middle
58%
4.5 YPC · 40% succ.
Right
26%
7.6 YPC · 58% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Dan Mullen

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
1Alex OrjiQBSR6' 3"240Sachse, TX
11Jackson ArnoldQBSR6' 1"220Denton, TX
13Sebastian CircoQBFR6' 2"195Fort Lauderdale, FL
14Derek GarciaQBFR6' 4"205Ventura, CA
0Jaylon GloverRBSR5' 9"210Lakeland, FL
9Jai'Den ThomasRBSR5' 9"195Atlanta, GA
24Darrien JonesRBJR6' 0"215Kansas City, MO
29Mohammad MaaliRBSR5' 11"210Las Vegas, NV
2Taz ReddicksWRJR5' 11"195Fort Lauderdale, FL
4DeAngelo Irvin Jr.WRSR5' 8"170Midwest City, OK
5Tavian McNairWRFR6' 2"185North Las Vegas, NV
6Kayden McGeeWRSO6' 0"170Muskogee, OK
8Taeshaun LyonsWRJR6' 1"190Hayward, CA
10Troy StellatoWRSR6' 1"195Fort Lauderdale, FL
15Tatum Bell Jr.WRFR6' 0"205Frisco, TX
19Danny BodenWRFR6' 0"180Dunwoody, GA
80Jesse HardenWRFR6' 3"185Tampa, FL
81Vincent CarnerWRFR6' 4"205Newbury Park, CA
83Cassidee MilesWRFR6' 5"190Fort Worth, TX
86David Titone-PerezWRSO6' 0"170Hacienda Heights, CA
87Demari NunleyWRFR6' 3"195Los Angeles, CA
43Jae Beasley IITEJR6' 3"250Henderson, NV
84Keyan BurnettTESR6' 6"250Ladera Ranch, CA
85Matt ByrnesTESR6' 6"250Chicago, IL
88Velltray JeffersonTESR6' 5"260Fresno, CA
89Andreas Diaz-NicolaidisTEFR6' 3"250Portland, OR
50Tevita TausingaOLFR6' 5"350Sacramento, CA
55Griffin ScroggsOLSR6' 3"330Grayson, GA
57Zach ScottOLFR6' 5"325Henderson, NV
60Josh HaneyOLFR6' 4"280San Juan Capistrano, CA
61Fuad MaaliOLFR6' 6"285Orlando, FL
62Eli SanchezOLFR6' 3"300Sandusky, OH
64Joe MetzgerOLSR6' 5"310Franklinville, NJ
65Ace RobinsonOLFR6' 4"285Oakland, CA
66BJ ToloOLJR6' 1"320Santa Ana, CA
68Ivan PenaOLFR6' 6"345Las Vegas, NV
70Alekai AfoaOLJR6' 4"295San Ramon, CA
71Ed HaynesOLSO6' 4"310Henderson, NV
72Will ThomasOLSR6' 7"305Tulsa, OK
73Jesus Garcia IIOLFR6' 5"290San Diego, CA
74Amare TaaseOLSO6' 4"330Scottsdale, AZ
75Mateo BilaverOLFR6' 6"315North Hollywood, CA
76Chrysanthos FetokakisOLFR6' 5"335Houston, TX
77Colton ThomassonOLJR6' 8"325Spring Branch, TX
78Jackson BrownOLJR6' 6"310Danville, CA
79Austin BoydOLSR6' 4"305Lehi, UT
0Cohen FullerDLSR6' 3"300Inglewood, CA
9Landen ThomasDLJR6' 3"255Zachary, LA
16Mohamed AltayebDLSR6' 4"290Castle Rock, CO
40Armand AusbonDLJR6' 3"250Houston, TX
44Kal-El TogafauDLFR6' 3"270Rancho Cucamonga, CA
48CJ BesserDLFR6' 3"245Las Vegas, NV
54Poe PurcellDLFR6' 3"320Las Vegas, NV
88Mo AbbasherDLJR6' 3"305Coppell, TX
90Eliah LogoDLFR6' 2"310Henderson, NV
92Herb GrayDLSO6' 3"275Upper Marlboro, MD
94Lucas ContiDLJR6' 5"295Corona, CA
96Prin FoxDLFR6' 2"280Cashmere, WA
97Bryce RobinsonDLFR6' 3"280Marietta, GA
99Jordan CovingtonDLFR6' 4"290McKinney, TX
32Kenji ScanlanDESO6' 2"245Tacoma, WA
42Andre PorterDESO6' 2"245Las Vegas, NV
3Dee CraytonLBSR6' 2"230Alpharetta, GA
8Kamuela Ka'aihueLBSR6' 2"240Papakolea, HI
11Mark IheanachorLBFR6' 2"220Los Angeles, CA
15Blesyng Alualu-TuiolemotuLBJR6' 1"220Kalihi, HI
23Cam SanteeLBSR6' 3"235Avon, OH
30Jordan NjokuLBFR6' 3"235Los Angeles, CA
31Ronnell Hewitt Jr.LBFR6' 1"225Los Angeles, CA
33Tate MatthewsLBFR6' 2"215Denver, CO
36Justin FloweLBSR6' 2"230Chino, CA
45Cole AlbrechtLBFR6' 4"245Sandy, UT
51Alexander GreenLBFR6' 2"235Las Vegas, NV
52Jacob BezaLBSO6' 0"235Henderson, NV
91Elias RudolphLBSO6' 5"205Deerfield Beach, FL
1Mumu Bin-WahadDBSR5' 11"190Atlanta, GA
2Denver HarrisDBSR6' 0"190Houston, TX
4Tony-Louis NkubaDBSO6' 1"195Lewisville, TX
5Quandarius KeyesDBSR6' 1"185Laurel, MS
10Tre FultonDBSO6' 3"190Bakersfield, CA
13Jaylen AllenDBSO6' 0"185Las Vegas, NV
19Tylen MathewsDBFR6' 0"185Lake Cormorant, MS
21Joshua TuchekDBFR6' 1"175Long Beach, CA
22Darien LewisDBFR6' 0"205Amarillo, TX
24Avery HelmDBSR6' 1"185Missouri City, TX
27Cameron ParodiDBFR6' 2"200Milton, GA
28Vern BlairDBFR6' 0"170Amarillo, TX
29AJ MortonDBFR6' 0"190Seattle, WA
37Triston ThomasDBFR5' 9"180Los Angeles, CA
7Jake PopeSSR6' 1"200Buford, GA
14Logan ChristensenSSO6' 0"200Rancho Santa Margarita, CA
20Landyn ClevelandSJR6' 0"190Dallas, TX
25Brock DeFriesSFR5' 10"190Mission Viejo, CA
35Brayden BakerPKFR6' 0"170Scottsdale, AZ
49Noah RandazzoPKFR5' 11"185Las Vegas, NV
26Matt ChoulesPFR6' 3"225Canberra, Australia
39Ethan SchwartzPSO6' 5"205Mission Viejo, CA
46Mason SenzakiLSFR6' 1"205Las Vegas, NV
47Tyson JacobsonLSJR6' 0"215Camas, WA
56Andrew O'ReillyLSSO6' 4"210Las Vegas, NV

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2024 (+7.1, #29) · worst: 2014 (-14.6, #123)
-100+10FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#64
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far4-32-1#84-4.4-3.4-1.1
202510-46-2#64+0.8+5.3-4.6
202411-36-1#29+7.1+4.7+2.4
20239-56-2#61+0.2+4.6-4.4
20225-73-5#101-6.5-2.2-4.4
20212-102-6#111-9.4-4.8-4.6
20200-60-6#122-14.4-6.3-8.1
20194-82-6#118-11.1-3.7-7.4
20184-82-6#107-9.8-1.0-8.8
20175-74-4#101-6.9+0.2-7.1
20164-83-5#110-9.5-0.2-9.4
20153-92-6#102-9.3-2.4-6.9
20142-111-7#123-14.6-5.0-9.5

UNLV's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Oct 21, 10:45 AM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →