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Pac-12 · 2026

Fresno State Bulldogs

Head coach Matt Entz · Valley Children's Stadium
4-31-2 in conference
TDC Rank
#77
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
-2.7
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
-2.6
85th in FBS
Defense
-0.2
70th in FBS
Schedule so far
-7.7
95th toughest
Projected
7.0-5.0
bowl-eligible 95%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

-2.7 now, -5.2 preseason · up 7 spots since preseason
-10-50FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8#77

Final record odds

7.0-5.0 expected · most likely 7-5 (40%)
5-724%6-640%7-526%8-46%9-3

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Jayden Mandal
QB · JR · 54th in FBS
1393yds
8 TD · 1 INT
Rushing
Rayshon Luke
RB · SR · 133rd in FBS
333yds
52 car · 1 TD
Receiving
Josiah Freeman
WR · SR · 65th in FBS
424yds
31 rec · 2 TD
Tackles
K'Vion Thunderbird
LB · 16th in FBS
61tkl
4 TFL
Sacks
Dylan Hampsten
DL · JR · 200th in FBS
2sacks
2 hurries
Interceptions
Simeon Harris
DB · SR · 8th in FBS
3INT
2 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 4@24USCL 0–39 ›-12.4—FOX
2Sep 12vs138Sacramento StateW 49–3 ›-0.7—CBSSN
3Sep 19@122San José StateW 26–10 ›+3.7—FS1
4Sep 26vs119RiceW 38–24 ›-4.9—CW
5Oct 3@95Washington StateCONFW 26–6 ›+16.5—USA Net
6Oct 10vs36Boise StateCONFL 31–38 ›-2.0—CW
7Oct 17@98San Diego StateCONFL 23–26 ›-8.0—CBSSN
8—Bye
9Oct 31vs57Oregon StateCONFOregon State −2.4 · o/u 54.7—44%USA Net
10Nov 7@94Utah StateCONFFresno State −0.8 · o/u 43.8—52%USA Net
11Nov 14@61Texas StateCONFTexas State −9.1 · o/u 61.9—27%CW
12Nov 21vs116Colorado StateCONFFresno State −14.8 · o/u 63.7—84%CW
13Nov 28vsTBD FCSCONFFresno State −30.9 · o/u 51.7—96%

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.10488th+0.04447th
Success rate40.5%96th41.9%79th
Explosiveness1.26856th1.19249th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate41.8%86th42.2%81st
Rushing success rate39.1%112th44.5%94th
Passing success rate44.4%55th39.9%60th
Explosive run rate13.6%79th11.5%47th
Explosive pass rate10.3%71st9.4%59th
Line yards / carry2.73123rd3.1590th
Opportunity rate35.9%110th40.5%107th
Stuff rate23.9%133rd16.5%87th
Sack rate5.6%88th6.7%43rd
3rd-down conversion36.8%105th35.9%44th
Red-zone TD rate60.9%83rd41.7%11th
Havoc rate12.4%50th14.5%58th
Box score · season totals
Points / game27.680th20.943rd
Yards / game351.1103rd384.3105th
Yards / play5.5686th5.6094th
Pass yards / game212.190th213.674th
Yards / pass att.7.4075th7.2278th
Completion %63.2%75th63.3%97th
Rush yards / game139.097th170.7100th
Yards / carry4.3077th4.63101st
3rd-down conv. %35.7%105th35.6%53rd
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)0.5714th1.7122nd
Sacks / game (allowed · made)2.1489th2.1466th
Penalty yards / game31.04th48.1107th

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
8.1
97th of 138
YAC per catch
5.5
67th of 138
Deep shots (20+)
13%
90th of 138
Shotgun
91%
102nd of 138
No-huddle
4%
133rd of 138
QB pressured
17%
23rd of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
12%
93rd of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
5.1
76th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws194 throws charted

63% comp8.1 avg. depth5.5 YAC/catch13% 20+ air yds9–1 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 16 throws (8%), 16 caught (100%), 109 yds, 6.8 per throw16100% · 109yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 15 throws (8%), 11 caught (73%), 135 yds, 9.0 per throw1573% · 135yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 15 throws (8%), 11 caught (73%), 94 yds, 6.3 per throw1573% · 94yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 13 throws (7%), 6 caught (46%), 97 yds, 7.5 per throw1346% · 97yLeft, 15–19 air yards: noneLeft, 20–29 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 3 caught (50%), 85 yds, 14.2 per throw650% · 85yLeft, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw20% · 0yMiddle, Behind air yards: 2 throws (1%), 2 caught (100%), 6 yds, 3.0 per throw2100% · 6yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 3 throws (2%), 2 caught (67%), 17 yds, 5.7 per throw367% · 17yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 13 throws (7%), 10 caught (77%), 82 yds, 6.3 per throw1377% · 82yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 4 caught (80%), 56 yds, 11.2 per throw580% · 56yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 3 throws (2%), 1 caught (33%), 27 yds, 9.0 per throw333% · 27yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 1 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw20% · 0yRight, Behind air yards: 15 throws (8%), 12 caught (80%), 101 yds, 6.7 per throw1580% · 101yRight, 0–4 air yards: 26 throws (13%), 17 caught (65%), 95 yds, 3.7 per throw2665% · 95yRight, 5–9 air yards: 28 throws (14%), 17 caught (61%), 209 yds, 7.5 per throw2861% · 209yRight, 10–14 air yards: 9 throws (5%), 1 caught (11%), 11 yds, 1.2 per throw911% · 11yRight, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 5 caught (71%), 93 yds, 13.3 per throw771% · 93yRight, 20–29 air yards: 9 throws (5%), 2 caught (22%), 61 yds, 6.8 per throw922% · 61yRight, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 2 caught (50%), 68 yds, 17.0 per throw450% · 68y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on197 throws charted

63% comp8.7 avg. depth5.1 YAC/catch12% 20+ air yds9–7 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 14 throws (7%), 13 caught (93%), 115 yds, 8.2 per throw1493% · 115yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 9 throws (5%), 8 caught (89%), 41 yds, 4.6 per throw989% · 41yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 18 throws (9%), 10 caught (56%), 79 yds, 4.4 per throw1856% · 79yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 10 throws (5%), 5 caught (50%), 92 yds, 9.2 per throw1050% · 92yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 1 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 1 caught (25%), 28 yds, 7.0 per throw425% · 28yLeft, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 2 caught (50%), 82 yds, 20.5 per throw450% · 82yMiddle, Behind air yards: 1 throws (1%), 1 caught (100%), 9 yds, 9.0 per throw1100% · 9yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 16 throws (8%), 10 caught (63%), 90 yds, 5.6 per throw1663% · 90yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 17 throws (9%), 14 caught (82%), 125 yds, 7.4 per throw1782% · 125yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 4 caught (57%), 53 yds, 7.6 per throw757% · 53yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 13 throws (7%), 8 caught (62%), 147 yds, 11.3 per throw1362% · 147yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 3 throws (2%), 1 caught (33%), 68 yds, 22.7 per throw333% · 68yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 1 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yRight, Behind air yards: 14 throws (7%), 11 caught (79%), 79 yds, 5.6 per throw1479% · 79yRight, 0–4 air yards: 21 throws (11%), 13 caught (62%), 70 yds, 3.3 per throw2162% · 70yRight, 5–9 air yards: 20 throws (10%), 16 caught (80%), 159 yds, 8.0 per throw2080% · 159yRight, 10–14 air yards: 9 throws (5%), 6 caught (67%), 81 yds, 9.0 per throw967% · 81yRight, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 3 caught (50%), 60 yds, 10.0 per throw650% · 60yRight, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw50% · 0yRight, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 2 caught (50%), 83 yds, 20.8 per throw450% · 83y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction200 carries

Left
17%
8.9 YPC · 52% succ.
Middle
64%
3.4 YPC · 34% succ.
Right
20%
8.5 YPC · 56% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced235 carries

Left
21%
5.2 YPC · 43% succ.
Middle
59%
5.2 YPC · 47% succ.
Right
20%
6.7 YPC · 38% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Matt Entz

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
3Khristian MartinQBSO6' 4"230Highland Springs, VA
7Jayden MandalQBJR6' 0"205Clovis, CA
13Jacob ChambersQBFR6' 1"185Fontana, CA
16Jonathan CraftQBFR6' 1"175Union City, CA
17Deagan RoseQBFR6' 2"220Clovis, CA
2Rayshon LukeRBSR5' 10"180South Central, CA
6Bryson DonelsonRBJR5' 11"205Visalia, CA
20Orlando GuevaraRBJR5' 8"165Denver, CO
24Julius GillickRBFR5' 11"215Seattle, WA
28Jhadis LuckeyRBFR5' 8"190Hayward, CA
31Brandon RamirezRBJR6' 0"235Hanford, CA
33Maddox MerrillRBFR5' 7"190Clovis, CA
34Jalen HarrisRBFR6' 0"180Berkeley, CA
41Andrew ChavezRBJR6' 0"195Fresno, CA
0Ezekiel AvitWRJR6' 2"200Potomac, MD
1Jahlil McClainWRJR5' 11"185Bellflower, CA
5Josiah FreemanWRSR6' 4"200Soledad, CA
10Jordan Malau'uluWRSO5' 10"180Long Beach, CA
11Jayon FarrarWRSR5' 11"185Long Branch, NJ
18Isaiah DillonWRFR5' 10"185Oxnard, CA
19Harold DuvallWRSO6' 1"195Fresno, CA
25Keynan CottonWRFR5' 9"195La Vista, NE
39Tyler BeckerWRJR6' 0"185San Diego, CA
80Jaylen GarrisonWRSR5' 10"190Henderson, NV
81Xavier OwensWRFR6' 2"170Los Angeles, CA
82Darrian AndersonWRSR5' 9"190Waipio Gentry, HI
30Jace NixonTESO6' 5"245Bakersfield, CA
32Ryan LewisTEFR6' 4"255Escalon, CA
35Sebastien BoydellTEFR6' 5"225Newport Beach, CA
36Zane GerboTEFR6' 4"235Modesto, CA
37Sylas AustinTEFR6' 3"230Atwater, CA
42Brayden FordTEFR6' 4"235Rancho Murieta, CA
44Robert LuceroTEFR6' 3"180West Covina, CA
85Bryce McdanielTEFR6' 3"215Hughson, CA
86Gavin CorreiaTESO6' 5"235Rocklin, CA
87Jake ApplegetTESR6' 4"245Lincoln, NE
88Dallas Gaius-AnyaegbuTEFR6' 5"235Omaha, NE
89Brock LiumTEJR6' 5"245Highland, CA
50Pat BarnettOLSR6' 6"315Key West, FL
51Braylan HendersonOLSR6' 3"290Tulare, CA
56Ben BakerOLSO6' 1"280San Clemente, CA
58Efren SiuloaOLFR6' 0"335Laie, HI
59Alex RiveraOLFR6' 3"295Lovington, NM
63Malcolm Polu Jr.OLFR6' 3"325Fagatogo, American Samoa
65Jonah LeaupepeteleOLFR6' 3"325Apple Valley, CA
66Gino QuinonesOLSR6' 3"295Ewa Beach, HI
68Ekene EbizieOLFR6' 7"285Murrieta, CA
71Rolan FullwoodOLSR6' 6"320Long Beach, CA
72Edward FonuaOLSR6' 3"315Orange, CA
73Marsel AkinsOLSO6' 3"285Tulare, CA
79Ethan DasmannOLSO6' 5"290El Dorado Hills, CA
0Deijon LaffitteDLJR6' 3"305Inglewood, CA
6Jahzon JacksDLSR6' 4"260East Palo Alto, CA
8Martin OwusuDLJR6' 3"310Prior Lake, MN
11Dylan HampstenDLJR6' 4"250Santa Clarita, CA
54Sione NoaDLSR6' 3"241Sacramento, CA
55Brendan HuddlestonDLFR6' 2"245St. Louis, MO
56Jairus SateleDLSR6' 0"295Carson, CA
85Solomon BakerDLFR6' 3"285Omaha, NE
89Mordecai HinesDLJR6' 4"290Palmdale, CA
91Auckland AsiataDLJR6' 3"285Yuba City, CA
92Luke AverellDLSO6' 4"260Ladera Ranch, CA
93Bryson HarringtonDLSO6' 1"280Clovis, CA
94Micah MosleyDLSO6' 4"230San Jose, CA
95Maverick NoonanDLJR6' 4"250Omaha, NE
97Jake Plummer-FirstDLFR6' 6"220Florissant, MO
98Steven Scott IIIDLSO6' 5"285Milwaukee, WI
99Logan GoodspeedDLSO6' 3"290Bakersfield, CA
25Justin JohnsonLBJR6' 1"225Los Angeles, CA
35Tytus KhajaviLBSO6' 1"240Fresno, CA
36Tommy NixLBSO6' 1"220Hanford, CA
42Lucas BlumlingLBFR6' 1"225Scottsdale, AZ
43Niko BaumgartnerLBFR6' 2"200Concord, CA
44Bo AusmusLBFR6' 0"207Redondo Beach, CA
45Zephaniah SesayLBFR6' 0"230Hanford, CA
2Andre CobbDBSR6' 1"185Naperville, IL
3Jaden CarrilloDBJR6' 0"185Clovis, CA
5Simeon HarrisDBSR6' 0"190Vallejo, CA
7Loyall MouzonDBSO5' 11"182Rochester, NY
13Cam ColeDBSO5' 11"180Arlington, TX
17Jonavon DarringtonDBFR5' 10"165Visalia, CA
19Preston OkaforDBSO6' 2"185Omaha, NE
20RJ ReganDBSR6' 0"195Lakewood, CA
23Sammie HunterDBSO5' 10"185Rock Hill, SC
24Croix StewartDBSR6' 3"208Vallejo, CA
26Truly Bell IIIDBFR6' 1"188Antioch, CA
27Gerayas GrimesDBSO5' 11"190Queen Creek, AZ
28Jomarion BriggsDBSR6' 1"175Stockton, CA
29Franklin LockardDBFR6' 2"165Tulare, CA
30Luke SanchezDBFR6' 0"190Visalia, CA
31Kiontre HarrisDBSO5' 11"165Lemoore, CA
32Tyger CanalesDBFR6' 0"190Long Beach, CA
33Taylor PowellDBSO6' 4"205Belleville, IL
34DaJhon HallDBFR5' 11"170Hesperia, CA
38Isaiah LuceroDBFR6' 0"185West Covina, CA
39Chase PerinoDBFR6' 1"180Modesto, CA
40Ryan KobzeffPKFR5' 10"175Fresno, CA
49Clay LawrencePJR6' 3"180Perth, Australia
52Ethan RossettiLSJR6' 1"205Clovis, CA
53Jack BaldiLSFR5' 11"220Foothill Ranch, CA

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2018 (+11.7, #11) · worst: 2016 (-13.1, #123)
-100+10FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#73
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far4-31-2#77-2.7-2.6-0.2
20259-45-3#73-0.8-3.3+2.5
20246-74-3#85-3.0-2.5-0.5
20239-44-4#65-0.4-0.1-0.3
202210-47-1#34+5.0+1.5+3.6
202110-36-2#43+4.8+2.2+2.5
20203-33-3#89-3.2+0.8-4.1
20194-82-6#79-2.2+0.2-2.4
201812-27-1#11+11.7+1.0+10.8
201710-47-1#46+3.7-2.6+6.3
20161-110-8#123-13.1-10.9-2.2
20153-92-6#111-11.8-4.9-6.8
20146-85-3#85-5.0-1.6-3.5

Fresno State's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Oct 21, 10:45 AM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →