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Pac-12 · 2026

Boise State Broncos

Head coach Spencer Danielson · Albertsons Stadium
5-12-0 in conference
TDC Rank
#36
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
+8.8
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
+6.5
27th in FBS
Defense
+2.3
54th in FBS
Schedule so far
-3.2
66th toughest
Projected
9.1-1.9
bowl-eligible >99%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

+8.8 now, +2.3 preseason · up 16 spots since preseason
0+5+10FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8#36

Final record odds

9.1-1.9 expected · most likely 9-2 (40%)
6-57-418%8-340%9-237%10-1

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Maddux Madsen
QB · SR · 67th in FBS
1296yds
13 TD · 0 INT
Rushing
Dylan Riley
RB · JR · 4th in FBS
835yds
127 car · 6 TD
Receiving
Rasean Jones
WR · FR · 105th in FBS
359yds
23 rec · 1 TD
Tackles
Boen Phelps
LB · JR · 304th in FBS
35tkl
3.5 TFL
Sacks
Max Stege
LB · SR · 149th in FBS
2.5sacks
0 hurries
Interceptions
Travis Anderson
DB · SO · 8th in FBS
3INT
1 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 5@10OregonL 27–34 ›+18.0—CBS
2Sep 12vs60MemphisW 38–20 ›+17.1—USA Net
3Sep 19vsSouth Dakota FCSW 38–24 ›+1.0—CBSSN
4Sep 26@81Western MichiganW 32–7 ›+24.9—ESPN2
5Oct 3vs94Utah StateCONFW 37–18 ›+7.9—CBSSN
6Oct 10@77Fresno StateCONFW 38–31 ›+8.0—CW
7—Bye
8Oct 24@95Washington StateCONFBoise State −12.3 · o/u 53.3—79%USA Net
9Oct 31vs61Texas StateCONFBoise State −10.0 · o/u 68.5—75%CW
10Nov 7@116Colorado StateCONFBoise State −18.7 · o/u 70.3—89%USA Net
11Nov 14vs57Oregon StateCONFBoise State −9.1 · o/u 61.4—73%USA Net
12Nov 21vs98San Diego StateCONFBoise State −21.4 · o/u 56.9—92%USA Net

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.32611th+0.07058th
Success rate48.9%21st37.3%31st
Explosiveness1.24171st1.639138th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate48.7%23rd37.5%31st
Rushing success rate50.2%18th34.7%18th
Passing success rate46.4%35th39.5%55th
Explosive run rate14.1%70th14.5%93rd
Explosive pass rate10.4%69th14.0%133rd
Line yards / carry3.5415th2.6621st
Opportunity rate46.1%6th33.9%35th
Stuff rate11.2%7th27.4%4th
Sack rate3.0%23rd7.6%22nd
3rd-down conversion49.4%22nd27.6%2nd
Red-zone TD rate63.6%64th50.0%34th
Havoc rate8.1%2nd16.8%20th
Box score · season totals
Points / game35.037th22.359th
Yards / game450.525th368.286th
Yards / play6.2937th6.52132nd
Pass yards / game216.084th261.3126th
Yards / pass att.7.8056th8.66133rd
Completion %66.3%44th58.6%38th
Rush yards / game234.59th106.828th
Yards / carry5.4018th4.4597th
3rd-down conv. %50.6%16th27.4%6th
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)0.5010th1.0086th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)0.8310th2.3343rd
Penalty yards / game52.847th50.893rd

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
7.4
115th of 138
YAC per catch
5.4
75th of 138
Deep shots (20+)
9%
134th of 138
Shotgun
56%
137th of 138
No-huddle
3%
137th of 138
QB pressured
12%
76th of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
14%
62nd of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
7.2
4th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws163 throws charted

66% comp7.4 avg. depth5.4 YAC/catch9% 20+ air yds13–0 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 5 throws (3%), 4 caught (80%), 35 yds, 7.0 per throw580% · 35yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 13 throws (8%), 10 caught (77%), 48 yds, 3.7 per throw1377% · 48yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 15 throws (9%), 11 caught (73%), 124 yds, 8.3 per throw1573% · 124yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw20% · 0yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (4%), 4 caught (67%), 84 yds, 14.0 per throw667% · 84yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw20% · 0yLeft, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw30% · 0yMiddle, Behind air yards: 3 throws (2%), 3 caught (100%), 16 yds, 5.3 per throw3100% · 16yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 6 throws (4%), 4 caught (67%), 64 yds, 10.7 per throw667% · 64yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 11 throws (7%), 9 caught (82%), 69 yds, 6.3 per throw1182% · 69yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 3 caught (60%), 49 yds, 9.8 per throw560% · 49yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 5 caught (71%), 106 yds, 15.1 per throw771% · 106yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 31 yds, 15.5 per throw250% · 31yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 1 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yRight, Behind air yards: 12 throws (7%), 9 caught (75%), 68 yds, 5.7 per throw1275% · 68yRight, 0–4 air yards: 34 throws (21%), 20 caught (59%), 125 yds, 3.7 per throw3459% · 125yRight, 5–9 air yards: 15 throws (9%), 9 caught (60%), 70 yds, 4.7 per throw1560% · 70yRight, 10–14 air yards: 10 throws (6%), 8 caught (80%), 134 yds, 13.4 per throw1080% · 134yRight, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 3 caught (60%), 70 yds, 14.0 per throw560% · 70yRight, 20–29 air yards: 6 throws (4%), 4 caught (67%), 149 yds, 24.8 per throw667% · 149yRight, 30+ air yards: none
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on171 throws charted

59% comp10.4 avg. depth7.2 YAC/catch19% 20+ air yds12–5 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 8 throws (5%), 8 caught (100%), 80 yds, 10.0 per throw8100% · 80yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 17 throws (10%), 16 caught (94%), 193 yds, 11.4 per throw1794% · 193yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 8 throws (5%), 7 caught (88%), 51 yds, 6.4 per throw888% · 51yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 2 caught (29%), 26 yds, 3.7 per throw729% · 26yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 3 caught (60%), 63 yds, 12.6 per throw560% · 63yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 1 caught (25%), 31 yds, 7.8 per throw425% · 31yLeft, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (3%), 2 caught (40%), 78 yds, 15.6 per throw540% · 78yMiddle, Behind air yards: noneMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 2 caught (100%), 28 yds, 14.0 per throw2100% · 28yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 6 throws (4%), 2 caught (33%), 12 yds, 2.0 per throw633% · 12yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 3 caught (43%), 38 yds, 5.4 per throw743% · 38yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (4%), 2 caught (33%), 62 yds, 10.3 per throw633% · 62yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 62 yds, 31.0 per throw250% · 62yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 1 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yRight, Behind air yards: 22 throws (13%), 18 caught (82%), 127 yds, 5.8 per throw2282% · 127yRight, 0–4 air yards: 20 throws (12%), 14 caught (70%), 74 yds, 3.7 per throw2070% · 74yRight, 5–9 air yards: 19 throws (11%), 9 caught (47%), 97 yds, 5.1 per throw1947% · 97yRight, 10–14 air yards: 9 throws (5%), 3 caught (33%), 40 yds, 4.4 per throw933% · 40yRight, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 3 caught (43%), 48 yds, 6.9 per throw743% · 48yRight, 20–29 air yards: 9 throws (5%), 1 caught (11%), 22 yds, 2.4 per throw911% · 22yRight, 30+ air yards: 7 throws (4%), 5 caught (71%), 263 yds, 37.6 per throw771% · 263y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction243 carries

Left
16%
9.7 YPC · 70% succ.
Middle
67%
5.2 YPC · 47% succ.
Right
16%
4.3 YPC · 48% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced127 carries

Left
18%
8.2 YPC · 43% succ.
Middle
57%
3.9 YPC · 33% succ.
Right
25%
5.1 YPC · 47% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Spencer Danielson

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
4Maddux MadsenQBSR5' 10"207Lehi, UT
10Cash HerreraQBFR6' 2"202La Jolla, CA
14Max CutforthQBJR6' 2"208Nampa, ID
16Jackson TaylorQBFR6' 1"196Thousand Oaks, CA
0Dylan RileyRBJR5' 10"192Moreno Valley, CA
15Zeke MartinezRBFR6' 0"215Meridian, ID
22Juelz GoffRBSO5' 9"195York, PA
23Keilan ChaviesRBFR5' 9"183Hutto, TX
26Sire GainesRBSO6' 0"217Perris, CA
27Harry Stewart IIIRBSO5' 10"220Frisco, TX
30Mariyon SloanRBFR5' 10"190Shafter, CA
3Cam BatesWRJR5' 10"180Mansfield, TX
13Darren MorrisWRSR6' 1"183Baton Rouge, LA
17AJ JonesWRFR6' 1"180Murrieta, CA
19Rasean JonesWRFR6' 2"199Baker City, OR
24AJ MaesWRJR6' 3"197Palos Verdes, CA
25Quinton BrownWRSO5' 8"165Argyle, TX
29Lincoln DunnWRFR5' 11"175Melissa, TX
34Jeremyah LaneWRJR5' 6"140Louisville, GA
80Romeo CarterWRFR6' 3"190San Diego, CA
81Kamryn JonesWRFR6' 2"210Moreno Valley, CA
82Ben FordWRSR5' 10"187Eagle, ID
84Gavin PackerWRFR5' 10"180Vancouver, WA
85Terrious FavorsWRFR5' 9"163Atlanta, GA
89AJ LoganWRFR5' 9"190Spring Valley, CA
Carson MonaganWRFR5' 10"183San Marcos, CA
45Troy GrizzleTESO6' 3"246Meridian, ID
46Carter KuchenbuchTEFR6' 5"238Okanogan, WA
47Kaden AndersonTESO6' 3"232Chandler, AZ
48Ryan BrekkeTEFR6' 2"216Meridian, ID
49Beckham HoflandTEFR6' 3"230Los Alamitos, CA
87Keawe BrowneTEFR6' 5"222Corona, CA
52Stewart TaufaOLFR6' 1"302St. George, UT
55Sua FaleagafuaOLFR6' 5"259Spring Valley, CA
59Jameson PerryOLFR6' 5"290Meridian, ID
62Roger CarreonOLSR6' 5"310Jal, NM
63Connor LagrowOLFR6' 6"293Tualatin, OR
64Carson RasmussenOLJR6' 5"300Meridian, ID
65Hakeim SmallsOLFR6' 3"286Everett, WA
67Jason SteeleOLJR6' 4"313Temecula, CA
69Zander EstyOLJR6' 4"300Auburn, CA
70Kyle CoxOLJR6' 6"300Eatonville, WA
71Ashton KershnerOLJR6' 4"327Martin, TN
72Daniil StarykhOLFR6' 3"296Berlin, Germany
73Parker PerkinsOLSO6' 2"300Middleton, ID
74Alma TaleniOLSO6' 7"297Coomera, Australia
75Daylon MetoyerOLSR6' 4"321Hesperia, CA
76Greg BienvenueOLSO6' 4"303Mesa, AZ
77Kole CroninOLFR6' 5"263Reno, NV
78Tyler EthridgeOLSR6' 3"308Midlothian, TX
54Adonte MedleyDLSO6' 1"300Palmdale, CA
56Rowan RuppDLFR6' 0"252Meridian, ID
58Deuce AlailefaleulaDLFR6' 0"303Anchorage, AK
90Andrew Rheubottom Jr.DLSR6' 0"277Baltimore, MD
92David LatuDLSR6' 4"325Rose Park, UT
93Ryder SwansonDLFR6' 3"290Oregon City, OR
94Paz St. JohnDLFR6' 2"268Peoria, AZ
96Lopez SanusiDLSO6' 3"307Dublin, Ireland
97Mikaio EdwardDLJR6' 1"285Kent, WA
98Bethel ImasuenDLFR6' 4"290Reading, England
99Michael MadrieDLJR6' 4"290Argyle, TX
1Boen PhelpsLBJR6' 1"215Spokane, WA
13Sterling Lane IILBSR6' 3"238St. Louis, MO
17Logan BrantleyLBJR6' 0"229Denver, CO
18Sam BrooksLBSR6' 1"200Duval County, FL
30Adam AustonLBFR6' 1"228Lawton, OK
41Rocky DunnLBFR6' 1"218Melissa, TX
42Zyhaire LewisLBJR6' 0"215Fontana, CA
43Jake RippLBSR6' 3"240Los Gatos, CA
44Syncere Brackett-LambeyLBSO6' 2"233Compton, CA
45Markell BowensLBFR6' 5"240Pocatello, ID
51Roman CaywoodLBSO6' 3"240Draper, UT
53Ty TannerLBSO6' 1"225Meridian, ID
57Gustaf Henriks RasLBFR6' 4"228Stockholm, Sweden
91Bol BolLBSO6' 4"240Brooks, Canada
95Max StegeLBSR6' 4"269Cologne, Germany
4Travis AndersonDBSO5' 11"190Mission Viejo, CA
7Jaden MickeyDBSR6' 0"182Eastvale, CA
8Sherrod SmithDBJR6' 1"185East Palo Alto, CA
9Derek Ganter Jr.DBJR6' 0"212Pasadena, CA
10Madden SoliaiDBFR5' 9"179Laie, HI
14Demetrius Freeney Jr.DBSR6' 0"187San Leandro, CA
16Franklyn Johnson Jr.DBJR5' 10"172Little Elm, TX
20Kyle HallDBJR6' 2"205Sacramento, CA
23Davin HillDBFR5' 10"179Arlington, TX
24Tahj CrutchfieldDBFR5' 11"180Eastvale, CA
28Cam JamersonDBFR6' 0"188Pearland, TX
29Arthur de BoachieDBSO6' 0"192Amsterdam, Netherlands
31Cole MillerDBJR6' 0"186Boise, ID
32Taebron Bennie-PowellDBSO6' 1"177Cincinnati, OH
33Josiah AlanisDBFR6' 1"186Vancouver, WA
34Dom CalhounDBFR5' 11"185Pittsburg, CA
36Jacob Arbuckle IIDBFR5' 10"165Hemet, CA
39Timothy MitchellDBSO5' 10"182Portland, OR
35Colton BoomerPKSR5' 10"175Lake Mary, FL
48Canaan MoorePKFR5' 11"170Vancouver, WA
37Oscar DoylePSR6' 3"214Brisbane, Australia
38Bradan ScottPFR6' 3"185Solana Beach, CA
60Tyler HimebauchLSFR6' 2"205Monument, CO
61Caden KellowLSSR5' 11"223Brentwood, TN

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2024 (+9.4, #17) · worst: 2025 (+3.7, #46)
0+5+10FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#46
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far5-12-0#36+8.8+6.5+2.3
20259-56-2#46+3.7+2.3+1.4
202412-27-0#17+9.4+7.0+2.3
20238-66-2#38+4.3+3.4+1.0
202210-48-0#39+4.2+1.1+3.1
20217-55-3#14+8.7+2.5+6.2
20205-25-0#24+6.5+5.5+1.0
201912-28-0#28+7.7+3.8+3.9
201810-37-1#23+8.8+5.4+3.4
201711-37-1#24+7.8+5.2+2.7
201610-36-2#29+6.6+2.2+4.5
20159-45-3#26+8.3+4.5+3.8
201412-27-1#25+8.9+9.2-0.3

Boise State's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Oct 21, 10:45 AM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →