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Pac-12 · 2026

Texas State Bobcats

Head coach GJ Kinne · UFCU Stadium
3-31-1 in conference
TDC Rank
#61
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
+2.6
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
+6.7
24th in FBS
Defense
-4.1
98th in FBS
Schedule so far
-4.7
74th toughest
Projected
6.0-5.0
bowl-eligible 71%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

+2.6 now, -1.8 preseason · up 11 spots since preseason
-50+5FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8#61

Final record odds

6.0-5.0 expected · most likely 6-5 (40%)
3-86%4-723%5-640%6-525%7-45%8-3

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Brad Jackson
QB · SO · 46th in FBS
1439yds
14 TD · 5 INT
Rushing
Torrance Burgess Jr.
RB · SR · 2nd in FBS
838yds
108 car · 5 TD
Receiving
Chris Dawn Jr.
WR · SR · 113th in FBS
348yds
29 rec · 4 TD
Tackles
Jayden Bradley
DB · FR · 136th in FBS
44tkl
1.5 TFL
Sacks
Tymere Jackson
DL · SR · 149th in FBS
2.5sacks
1 hurries
Interceptions
Trez Moore
DB · SR · 109th in FBS
1INT
6 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 5@9TexasL 7–59 ›-8.5—ESPN
2Sep 12vs75UTSAL 26–31 ›-10.3—CW
3Sep 19vs53North TexasW 49–35 ›+14.6—USA Net
4Sep 26vsIncarnate Word FCSW 63–10 ›+12.9—USA Net
5Oct 3@98San Diego StateCONFL 29–31 ›-7.0—CW
6—Bye
7Oct 15vs116Colorado StateCONFW 66–27 ›+11.7—CBSSN
8Oct 24vs94Utah StateCONFTexas State −13.7 · o/u 56.9—82%CBSSN
9Oct 31@36Boise StateCONFBoise State −10.0 · o/u 68.5—25%CW
10Nov 7@57Oregon StateCONFOregon State −4.7 · o/u 67.9—38%CW
11Nov 14vs77Fresno StateCONFTexas State −9.1 · o/u 61.9—73%CW
12Nov 21vs95Washington StateCONFTexas State −13.7 · o/u 59.8—82%USA Net

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.3387th+0.170110th
Success rate52.0%5th44.9%115th
Explosiveness1.33926th1.27991st
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate52.3%5th45.1%111th
Rushing success rate50.4%16th40.4%53rd
Passing success rate54.9%6th48.1%127th
Explosive run rate17.0%28th12.8%63rd
Explosive pass rate14.7%20th10.4%80th
Line yards / carry3.5513th2.7531st
Opportunity rate40.6%58th40.4%104th
Stuff rate11.6%9th26.2%9th
Sack rate2.0%10th1.9%134th
3rd-down conversion60.6%2nd40.3%81st
Red-zone TD rate69.2%38th69.6%113th
Havoc rate8.8%6th13.4%75th
Box score · season totals
Points / game40.09th32.2122nd
Yards / game562.31st424.3126th
Yards / play7.139th5.6799th
Pass yards / game258.839th297.3137th
Yards / pass att.9.3013th7.1473rd
Completion %68.3%20th66.8%123rd
Rush yards / game303.53rd127.051st
Yards / carry6.103rd3.9565th
3rd-down conv. %54.8%5th38.9%86th
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)1.67113th0.83116th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)1.1732nd1.00130th
Penalty yards / game53.754th74.513th

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
9.0
49th of 138
YAC per catch
6.7
18th of 138
Deep shots (20+)
14%
74th of 138
Shotgun
98%
34th of 138
No-huddle
96%
7th of 138
QB pressured
7%
132nd of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
5%
137th of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
5.3
63rd of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws158 throws charted

68% comp9.0 avg. depth6.7 YAC/catch14% 20+ air yds15–4 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 11 throws (7%), 9 caught (82%), 37 yds, 3.4 per throw1182% · 37yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 15 throws (9%), 11 caught (73%), 76 yds, 5.1 per throw1573% · 76yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 14 throws (9%), 13 caught (93%), 134 yds, 9.6 per throw1493% · 134yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 6 caught (86%), 77 yds, 11.0 per throw786% · 77yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 3 throws (2%), 1 caught (33%), 24 yds, 8.0 per throw333% · 24yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw20% · 0yLeft, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (3%), 3 caught (75%), 149 yds, 37.3 per throw475% · 149yMiddle, Behind air yards: 1 throws (1%), 1 caught (100%), 6 yds, 6.0 per throw1100% · 6yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 8 throws (5%), 4 caught (50%), 34 yds, 4.3 per throw850% · 34yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 1 caught (20%), 22 yds, 4.4 per throw520% · 22yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 5 caught (71%), 79 yds, 11.3 per throw771% · 79yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 4 throws (3%), 4 caught (100%), 120 yds, 30.0 per throw4100% · 120yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 29 yds, 14.5 per throw250% · 29yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (3%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw40% · 0yRight, Behind air yards: 13 throws (8%), 12 caught (92%), 100 yds, 7.7 per throw1392% · 100yRight, 0–4 air yards: 21 throws (13%), 18 caught (86%), 196 yds, 9.3 per throw2186% · 196yRight, 5–9 air yards: 11 throws (7%), 7 caught (64%), 58 yds, 5.3 per throw1164% · 58yRight, 10–14 air yards: 8 throws (5%), 4 caught (50%), 120 yds, 15.0 per throw850% · 120yRight, 15–19 air yards: 8 throws (5%), 6 caught (75%), 109 yds, 13.6 per throw875% · 109yRight, 20–29 air yards: 6 throws (4%), 4 caught (67%), 94 yds, 15.7 per throw667% · 94yRight, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (3%), 1 caught (25%), 39 yds, 9.8 per throw425% · 39y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on240 throws charted

67% comp7.9 avg. depth5.3 YAC/catch12% 20+ air yds12–4 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 25 throws (10%), 22 caught (88%), 169 yds, 6.8 per throw2588% · 169yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 18 throws (8%), 14 caught (78%), 155 yds, 8.6 per throw1878% · 155yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 29 throws (12%), 22 caught (76%), 216 yds, 7.4 per throw2976% · 216yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 16 throws (7%), 11 caught (69%), 157 yds, 9.8 per throw1669% · 157yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 1 caught (33%), 17 yds, 5.7 per throw333% · 17yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 6 caught (67%), 170 yds, 18.9 per throw967% · 170yLeft, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (2%), 1 caught (20%), 45 yds, 9.0 per throw520% · 45yMiddle, Behind air yards: noneMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 2 caught (33%), 7 yds, 1.2 per throw633% · 7yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 18 throws (8%), 13 caught (72%), 127 yds, 7.1 per throw1872% · 127yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 4 caught (50%), 103 yds, 12.9 per throw850% · 103yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 4 caught (50%), 67 yds, 8.4 per throw850% · 67yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 20 yds, 10.0 per throw250% · 20yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 6 throws (3%), 1 caught (17%), 57 yds, 9.5 per throw617% · 57yRight, Behind air yards: 26 throws (11%), 23 caught (88%), 55 yds, 2.1 per throw2688% · 55yRight, 0–4 air yards: 23 throws (10%), 18 caught (78%), 98 yds, 4.3 per throw2378% · 98yRight, 5–9 air yards: 18 throws (8%), 12 caught (67%), 105 yds, 5.8 per throw1867% · 105yRight, 10–14 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 1 caught (17%), 16 yds, 2.7 per throw617% · 16yRight, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 1 caught (17%), 18 yds, 3.0 per throw617% · 18yRight, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 2 caught (40%), 50 yds, 10.0 per throw540% · 50yRight, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (1%), 3 caught (100%), 121 yds, 40.3 per throw3100% · 121y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction278 carries

Left
12%
6.9 YPC · 56% succ.
Middle
73%
6.7 YPC · 42% succ.
Right
15%
6.0 YPC · 51% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced180 carries

Left
17%
4.1 YPC · 50% succ.
Middle
61%
4.2 YPC · 44% succ.
Right
23%
4.2 YPC · 49% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach GJ Kinne

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
8Brad JacksonQBSO6' 0"197San Antonio, TX
10Shaker ReisigQBFR6' 0"194Tulsa, OK
15Stone WalkerQBJR6' 3"195Houston, TX
17Gavin ParkhurstQBFR6' 3"207Fort Worth, TX
0Taji AtkinsRBSO5' 8"181Houston, TX
4Torrance Burgess Jr.RBSR5' 8"176Pearland, TX
5Jaylen JenkinsRBSR5' 8"173Dallas, TX
6Davian JacksonRBFR6' 1"196New Iberia, LA
21Cole PryorRBFR5' 9"178San Antonio, TX
24Juntavious HarrisRBFR5' 8"175Euless, TX
1Chris Dawn Jr.WRSR5' 9"175Dallas, TX
2Kylen EvansWRSO6' 2"200McKinney, TX
3Zechariah SampleWRSO5' 10"175Pickens, MS
11Beau SparksWRSR5' 11"181El Paso, TX
12La'Keyleon GravesWRFR6' 2"201Kilgore, TX
13Tucker CusanoWRFR6' 2"205Dallas, TX
14Jordan MartinWRSO6' 1"192Dallas, TX
20Dameon CroweWRFR5' 6"160Richardson, TX
25Skylar LewisWRFR6' 2"189Sulphur Springs, TX
81Blake MclaneWRFR6' 3"208McKinney, TX
83Jonah JonesWRFR6' 1"189Denton, TX
9Arvis Battle Jr.TEFR6' 4"246Red Oak, TX
16Blake SmithTESR6' 4"250Southlake, TX
18Ty StameyTEJR6' 7"250Spring, TX
84Cole SnodgrassTESO6' 5"230Conroe, TX
85Russell CrawfordTEFR6' 5"225Marshall, TX
88Jake SimpsonTEJR6' 5"246Azle, TX
50Jaylen EarlyOLSR6' 4"315Duncanville, TX
52Mikel UdengwuOLJR6' 3"5Norwalk, CA
53Cameron SchultzOLJR6' 4"291Foley, AL
54Tyler NorrisOLSO6' 4"315Dallas, TX
55Etueni RopatiOLJR6' 5"321Orange County, TX
58Aidin RhodesOLJR6' 3"281Sugar Land, TX
60Terrance Brown Jr.OLFR6' 5"361Killeen, TX
62Teagan LindseyOLFR6' 4"290Callisburg, TX
65Eric PerkinsOLFR6' 6"374Marshall, TX
66Justin DeLeonOLJR6' 3"319Kingsville, TX
68Sully BurnsOLSR6' 7"327Plano, TX
70Ameer RossOLFR6' 5"373Duncanville, TX
71William BooneOLSR6' 6"351Conyers, GA
72Kirk GildonOLFR6' 6"291Temple, TX
74Jayden LuckettOLJR6' 6"306San Diego, CA
75Rasheed JacksonOLJR6' 7"339Columbus, OH
77Bamidele BadusiOLJR6' 6"328Grand Prairie, TX
78Amari SmithOLJR6' 6"332Brookhaven, MS
79Alan GrimmeOLJR6' 5"319Vancleave, MS
5DonTerry RussellDLSR6' 5"228Jackson, MS
6Jo'Laison LandryDLJR6' 3"260Lafayette, LA
13Ta'Derius CollinsDLJR6' 4"233Shreveport, LA
14D'Ante KeysDLFR6' 3"257Bellville, TX
18Josiah GrahamDLSR6' 5"250Newport News, VA
30Jason PattersonDLSR6' 4"229Philadelphia, PA
31Cullen ThompsonDLFR6' 3"220Spring, TX
32Javarius BellDLFR6' 1"306Brownsboro, TX
33Blake IsbellDLFR6' 3"254Dallas, TX
34Jonathan DavisDLJR6' 5"320Oma, MS
35Emmanuel PeterDLSO6' 4"270Las Vegas, NV
38Mekhi BuchananDLJR6' 5"247Acworth, GA
40Simeon GarnerDLFR6' 3"288Tyler, TX
42Colt SparksDLFR6' 3"236Gladewater, TX
44Phillip BradfordDLJR6' 6"308Monroe, LA
56Tymere JacksonDLSR6' 5"245Woodbury, NJ
88Jussiah AliDLJR6' 1"305San Antonio, TX
90Chancellor OwensDLJR6' 3"296Haslet, TX
91J.P. DeeterDLJR6' 3"294Topeka, KS
93Cam ChristianDLFR6' 0"302Kilgore, TX
95Jaylen HarrisDLSR6' 2"325Chicago, IL
96Bryce CarterDLSR6' 3"309Colonial Heights, VA
99Kaleb JamesDLJR6' 4"286Mansfield, TX
10Cole NillesLBJR6' 4"238Philadelphia, PA
11TJ BurkhalterLBFR6' 2"230Houston, TX
12Javante MackeyLBJR6' 2"251Chicago, IL
15Ayden JonesLBJR6' 2"224Houston, TX
16Terrence Cooks IILBSR6' 2"231Pearland, TX
21Jordan SampleLBJR6' 2"233Missouri City, TX
23Darius DavisLBFR6' 2"216San Marcos, TX
29Treylin PayneLBSR6' 0"215San Antonio, TX
49Blaine CarverLBFR5' 10"203Victoria, TX
0Jayden LawtonDBSR6' 3"193Dallas, TX
1Amarion AtwoodDBJR6' 1"182Dallas, TX
2Trez MooreDBSR6' 1"186St. Louis, MO
3Craig Royal Jr.DBSR6' 2"185Houston, TX
7Ryan NolanDBSR5' 10"187Gainesville, FL
8Cordarian PowellDBFR6' 1"180Royse City, TX
9Jayden BradleyDBFR6' 1"209Prosper, TX
17Christopher JonesDBSO6' 2"189Houston, TX
19Michael Patterson IIIDBJR5' 10"169Houston, TX
22Will Mitchell IIDBSO5' 10"181Houston, TX
24Dexter Ricks Jr.DBSR5' 11"178Milledgeville, GA
26Chase DavisDBJR6' 3"197Little Elm, TX
27John SmithDBFR6' 3"202Baytown, TX
36Greg Gipson Jr.DBFR6' 1"180Dallas, TX
37Jayden FlournoyDBFR6' 0"180Burleson, TX
38Jacob BonillaPKSO5' 10"167Ontario, CA
41Dylan CunananPKJR5' 9"183Phoenix, AZ
43Michael JamesPKSR6' 4"204Rockwall, TX
92Tom FlintoffPFR6' 3"212Melbourne, Australia
94Joshua SelmesPSO6' 1"181Central Coast, Australia
51Darian SnellLSSO6' 3"218Houston, TX
57Lincoln PetitjeanLSFR6' 0"225Canaan, CT

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2024 (+2.9, #51) · worst: 2016 (-19.2, #128)
-20-100FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#62
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far3-31-1#61+2.6+6.7-4.1
20257-63-5#62+1.4+6.2-4.8
20248-55-3#51+2.9+4.3-1.5
20238-54-4#72-1.4+5.3-6.8
20224-82-6#114-9.0-6.9-2.1
20214-83-5#116-11.2-4.5-6.7
20202-102-6#107-7.9-0.7-7.3
20193-92-6#120-12.7-9.6-3.1
20183-91-7#121-13.2-9.7-3.5
20172-101-7#126-17.1-10.7-6.4
20162-100-8#128-19.2-9.2-10.0
20153-92-6#113-12.4-4.1-8.3
20147-55-3#82-4.7-1.6-3.1

Texas State's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Oct 21, 10:45 AM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →