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ACC · 2026

Louisville Cardinals

Head coach Jeff Brohm · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
4-33-2 in conference
TDC Rank
#18
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
+15.4
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
+11.6
9th in FBS
Defense
+3.8
41st in FBS
Schedule so far
+4.0
16th toughest
Projected
7.7-4.3
bowl-eligible 99%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

+15.4 now, +12.6 preseason · up 4 spots since preseason
0+5+10+15FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8#18

Final record odds

7.7-4.3 expected · most likely 8-4 (40%)
5-79%6-628%7-540%8-422%9-3

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Lincoln Kienholz
QB · JR · 11th in FBS
1844yds
10 TD · 3 INT
Rushing
Isaac Brown
RB · JR · 27th in FBS
568yds
83 car · 4 TD
Receiving
Lawayne McCoy
WR · JR · 28th in FBS
513yds
25 rec · 4 TD
Tackles
T.J. Capers
LB · SR · 42nd in FBS
53tkl
1.5 TFL
Sacks
Tyler Thompson
DL · SR · 31st in FBS
4.5sacks
1 hurries
Interceptions
Kaleb Beasley
DB · JR · 1st in FBS
5INT
3 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 6vs11Ole MissNEUTRALL 38–41 ›+17.5—ABC
2Sep 11vsVillanova FCSW 59–13 ›+2.8—ACC Network
3Sep 19vs31SMUCONFW 41–31 ›+17.5—ESPN2
4Sep 26vs22Wake ForestCONFL 27–30 ›+6.7—ESPN
5Oct 3@64NC StateCONFL 28–31 ›+3.0—ACC Network
6Oct 9vs35Florida StateCONFW 44–20 ›+29.4—ESPN
7Oct 17@68SyracuseCONFW 34–26 ›+12.9—ACC Network
8—Bye
9Oct 31vs104StanfordCONFLouisville −29.8 · o/u 59.9—98%ACC Network
10Nov 7@67Georgia TechCONFLouisville −9.8 · o/u 63.6—74%
11Nov 14@54North CarolinaCONFLouisville −7.6 · o/u 58.0—69%
12Nov 21vs42PittsburghCONFLouisville −12.0 · o/u 60.1—79%
13Nov 28@32KentuckyLouisville −0.6 · o/u 61.5—52%

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.31915th+0.10379th
Success rate48.3%25th41.9%79th
Explosiveness1.4463rd1.21962nd
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate49.0%22nd42.0%78th
Rushing success rate48.8%28th44.0%86th
Passing success rate49.2%24th40.2%64th
Explosive run rate19.8%4th9.1%18th
Explosive pass rate17.8%2nd10.3%74th
Line yards / carry3.0191st3.2197th
Opportunity rate41.5%44th37.4%67th
Stuff rate22.1%126th11.9%133rd
Sack rate6.7%100th6.2%49th
3rd-down conversion44.2%45th34.4%30th
Red-zone TD rate76.2%13th46.2%21st
Havoc rate16.3%123rd13.5%72nd
Box score · season totals
Points / game38.715th27.4102nd
Yards / game484.611th419.9125th
Yards / play7.443rd5.4281st
Pass yards / game269.629th268.9129th
Yards / pass att.10.104th7.5993rd
Completion %67.4%31st61.3%65th
Rush yards / game215.019th151.086th
Yards / carry5.908th3.8255th
3rd-down conv. %45.0%35th35.0%49th
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)0.8634th1.7122nd
Sacks / game (allowed · made)2.0079th2.4338th
Penalty yards / game76.7127th66.728th

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
9.1
46th of 138
YAC per catch
7.7
3rd of 138
Deep shots (20+)
16%
37th of 138
Shotgun
85%
123rd of 138
No-huddle
35%
94th of 138
QB pressured
15%
45th of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
14%
72nd of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
5.4
52nd of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws180 throws charted

67% comp9.1 avg. depth7.7 YAC/catch16% 20+ air yds11–3 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 14 throws (8%), 13 caught (93%), 90 yds, 6.4 per throw1493% · 90yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 16 throws (9%), 11 caught (69%), 92 yds, 5.8 per throw1669% · 92yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 16 throws (9%), 11 caught (69%), 122 yds, 7.6 per throw1669% · 122yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 3 caught (43%), 38 yds, 5.4 per throw743% · 38yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 1 caught (20%), 19 yds, 3.8 per throw520% · 19yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 2 caught (40%), 88 yds, 17.6 per throw540% · 88yLeft, 30+ air yards: noneMiddle, Behind air yards: 1 throws (1%), 1 caught (100%), 13 yds, 13.0 per throw1100% · 13yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 11 throws (6%), 7 caught (64%), 67 yds, 6.1 per throw1164% · 67yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 8 throws (4%), 7 caught (88%), 61 yds, 7.6 per throw888% · 61yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 10 throws (6%), 5 caught (50%), 92 yds, 9.2 per throw1050% · 92yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 5 caught (71%), 109 yds, 15.6 per throw771% · 109yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 3 throws (2%), 1 caught (33%), 21 yds, 7.0 per throw333% · 21yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 1 caught (25%), 35 yds, 8.8 per throw425% · 35yRight, Behind air yards: 14 throws (8%), 14 caught (100%), 125 yds, 8.9 per throw14100% · 125yRight, 0–4 air yards: 18 throws (10%), 12 caught (67%), 157 yds, 8.7 per throw1867% · 157yRight, 5–9 air yards: 16 throws (9%), 13 caught (81%), 145 yds, 9.1 per throw1681% · 145yRight, 10–14 air yards: 8 throws (4%), 6 caught (75%), 114 yds, 14.3 per throw875% · 114yRight, 15–19 air yards: 1 throws (1%), 1 caught (100%), 32 yds, 32.0 per throw1100% · 32yRight, 20–29 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 4 caught (57%), 128 yds, 18.3 per throw757% · 128yRight, 30+ air yards: 9 throws (5%), 5 caught (56%), 225 yds, 25.0 per throw956% · 225y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on234 throws charted

61% comp8.3 avg. depth5.4 YAC/catch14% 20+ air yds12–7 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 21 throws (9%), 20 caught (95%), 140 yds, 6.7 per throw2195% · 140yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 14 throws (6%), 7 caught (50%), 38 yds, 2.7 per throw1450% · 38yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 18 throws (8%), 13 caught (72%), 119 yds, 6.6 per throw1872% · 119yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 2 caught (40%), 23 yds, 4.6 per throw540% · 23yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 4 caught (80%), 69 yds, 13.8 per throw580% · 69yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 2 caught (29%), 89 yds, 12.7 per throw729% · 89yLeft, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 1 caught (25%), 48 yds, 12.0 per throw425% · 48yMiddle, Behind air yards: 4 throws (2%), 4 caught (100%), 19 yds, 4.8 per throw4100% · 19yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 13 throws (6%), 8 caught (62%), 32 yds, 2.5 per throw1362% · 32yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 18 throws (8%), 11 caught (61%), 105 yds, 5.8 per throw1861% · 105yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 5 caught (71%), 58 yds, 8.3 per throw771% · 58yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 5 caught (71%), 103 yds, 14.7 per throw771% · 103yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 2 caught (40%), 55 yds, 11.0 per throw540% · 55yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 34 yds, 17.0 per throw250% · 34yRight, Behind air yards: 24 throws (10%), 20 caught (83%), 131 yds, 5.5 per throw2483% · 131yRight, 0–4 air yards: 26 throws (11%), 14 caught (54%), 89 yds, 3.4 per throw2654% · 89yRight, 5–9 air yards: 25 throws (11%), 12 caught (48%), 109 yds, 4.4 per throw2548% · 109yRight, 10–14 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 6 caught (67%), 77 yds, 8.6 per throw967% · 77yRight, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 1 caught (17%), 35 yds, 5.8 per throw617% · 35yRight, 20–29 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 4 caught (44%), 106 yds, 11.8 per throw944% · 106yRight, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (2%), 3 caught (60%), 152 yds, 30.4 per throw560% · 152y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction222 carries

Left
27%
7.5 YPC · 50% succ.
Middle
53%
6.7 YPC · 45% succ.
Right
20%
7.4 YPC · 58% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced248 carries

Left
12%
4.8 YPC · 43% succ.
Middle
77%
4.6 YPC · 40% succ.
Right
10%
4.6 YPC · 50% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Jeff Brohm

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
3Lincoln KienholzQBJR6' 2"215Pierre, SD
10Briggs CherryQBFR6' 4"215Cookeville, TN
19Mason FieldsQBFR6' 4"215Villa Hills, KY
1Isaac BrownRBJR5' 9"190Miami, FL
5Keyjuan BrownRBSR5' 10"215Anniston, AL
22Lekhy ThompkinsRBFR6' 2"235Alamo, TN
24Marquise DavisRBSO6' 0"215Cleveland, OH
32Braxton JenningsRBSO5' 11"195Ashland, KY
0Tre RichardsonWRSR5' 10"175Topeka, KS
2TreyShun HurryWRSR6' 2"200Palmdale, CA
7Lawayne McCoyWRJR6' 1"180Miami Gardens, FL
14Kris HughesWRSR5' 11"200Morganfield, KY
14Jackson VothWRJR5' 11"190Cheney, KS
18Terrence McWilliams Jr.WRSR6' 0"190Indianapolis, IN
42Rhys DorseyWRFR5' 11"195Madison, AL
45Marlon HarbinWRFRLouisville, KY
49DeVuan JonesWRSO5' 8"175Indianapolis, IN
81Jakob DixonWRSR6' 4"215Louisville, KY
82Montavin QuisenberryWRSO5' 10"180Danville, KY
84Payton CookWRFR6' 1"190Akron, OH
86Elizjah LewisWRSR6' 2"195Smyrna, DE
89Gavin WaddellWRFR6' 0"180Raleigh, NC
Marlon HarbinWRFRLouisville
15Julius MilesTEFR6' 6"220Freeport, FL
44Travis EganTESR6' 2"220Mount Washington, KY
80Brody FoleyTESR6' 6"260Cincinnati, OH
85Justyn ReidTESR6' 5"260Newnan, GA
87Dylan MesmanTEJR6' 5"240Saline, MI
88Jaleel SkinnerTESR6' 5"230Greer, SC
90Hamilton AtkinsTEJR6' 4"250Louisville, KY
52Max MerzOLFR6' 4"310Fort Thomas, KY
53Lance RobinsonOLSR6' 4"295Camilla, GA
56Eryx DaughertyOLSR6' 4"310Troy, MI
57Naeer JacksonOLSR6' 6"310Philadelphia, PA
61Gradey AnthonyOLSO6' 5"295Goshen, KY
65Ellis McAdooOLJR6' 6"295Elmhurst, IL
66Johnnie Brown IIIOLSR6' 3"310Atlanta, GA
67James Glover-TysonOLSR6' 6"325Louisville, KY
70Anwar O'NealOLSR6' 5"310Philadelphia, PA
71Cason HenryOLSR6' 6"300Atlanta, GA
72Sam SecrestOLSR6' 5"300Greenwood, IN
73Ben CorheiOLFR6' 5"300Naples, FL
74Jarvis StricklandOLFR6' 6"295Chattanooga, TN
75Cameron GorinOLSO6' 5"295Fishers, IN
76Tyler FolmarOLFR6' 6"315Cantonment, FL
78Charlie EdgeworthOLFR6' 7"320Chattanooga, TN
63Bryten CloseOTFR6' 6"300Campbellsville, KY
2Demeco KennedyDLJR6' 3"305Lexington, KY
3Tyler ThompsonDLSR6' 5"245Cary, NC
17AJ GreenDLSR6' 6"250Atlanta, GA
19Micah CarterDLSR6' 6"265Louisville, KY
40Eric HazzardDLSO6' 3"255Nolensville, TN
50Clev LubinDLSR6' 3"260Suffern, NY
59Reece SellersDLFR6' 1"215Cheval, FL
62Chris Jones Jr.DLSO6' 1"305Louisville, KY
90Daylen RussellDLJR6' 3"300Miami, FL
91Keon WebbDLJR6' 5"300Tampa, FL
93Bailey AbercrombieDLSO6' 3"285Birmingham, AL
94Dillon SmithDLSO6' 4"285Union, KY
95Joshua DonaldDLJR6' 2"310Durham, NC
97Maurice DavisDLSO6' 4"250Albany, GA
98Sam DawsonDLFR6' 3"300Crestwood, KY
99Jerod Smith IIDLJR6' 4"270Corbin, KY
6Stanquan ClarkLBSR6' 3"240Miami, FL
11T.J. CapersLBSR6' 2"225Miami, FL
23Benjamin PerryLBSR6' 3"215Chicago, IL
30Taj PowellLBFR6' 2"235Springfield, OH
34Brady BallartLBFR6' 2"225Aurora, IN
36Jacob SmithLBJR6' 4"235Corbin, KY
38Cam WhiteLBSO6' 1"235Tampa, FL
41Caleb MatelauLBSO6' 1"225Palmetto, FL
43Trent CarterLBJR6' 3"225Jacksonville, FL
52Kalib PerryLBSR6' 3"230Georgetown, KY
1Jabari MackDBSR6' 1"185Jacksonville, FL
4TJ BanksDBJR6' 2"205Tuscaloosa, AL
5Koen EntringerDBSR6' 2"215Ypsilanti, MI
9Antonio WattsDBSR6' 2"225Columbus, GA
10Kaleb BeasleyDBJR6' 1"200Nashville, TN
13Tayon HollowayDBSR6' 1"190Virginia Beach, VA
20Antonio HarrisDBSO6' 0"180Louisville, KY
21Jaydin BroadnaxDBFR6' 3"190Boca Raton, FL
25Brycen ScottDBJR5' 11"195Florence, SC
27Myles NorwoodDBSR6' 2"190St. Louis, MO
29Blake RuffinDBSR6' 3"205Louisville, KY
31Micah RiceDBSO6' 2"200Los Angeles, CA
33Kris BrunsonDBFR6' 2"190Snellville, GA
37Anderson MitchellDBJR6' 2"190Lexington, KY
39Jordan GervaisDBFR5' 10"175San Antonio, TX
47Garion McPhersonDBFR5' 10"180Danville, KY
12DJ Waller Jr.CBSR6' 3"210Youngstown, OH
26Jordan VannSFR6' 1"200Middletown, OH
35Carson HilbertPKSO6' 3"215Louisville, KY
92Garth WhitePKSR6' 3"206Westlake Village, CA
95Bode ShoapsPKFR5' 10"160Granville, OH
98Nick KellerPKSR6' 1"200Hebron, KY
48Jacob BakerPJR6' 2"215Corbin, KY
91Niall HayesPFR6' 1"200Melbourne, Australia
51Hayden TravelsteadLSJR6' 0"210Acworth, GA
54Drew KegebeinLSFR5' 11"210Elburn, IL
77Ryan ManisLSJR6' 1"225Wilmington, NC

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2016 (+11.8, #12) · worst: 2018 (-11.4, #115)
-100+10FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#24
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far4-33-2#18+15.4+11.6+3.8
20259-44-4#24+8.0+4.2+3.7
20249-45-3#14+10.7+7.2+3.5
202310-47-1#23+7.7+2.4+5.3
20228-54-4#20+8.1+1.7+6.4
20216-74-4#54+2.8+3.0-0.2
20204-73-7#57+1.0+1.4-0.4
20198-55-3#61-0.5+5.2-5.7
20182-100-8#115-11.4-3.5-7.9
20178-54-4#22+8.4+8.9-0.5
20169-47-1#12+11.8+8.8+2.9
20158-55-3#45+4.9+2.2+2.7
20149-45-3#26+8.8+3.8+5.1

Louisville's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Oct 22, 3:47 AM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →