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SEC · 2026

Kentucky Wildcats

Head coach Will Stein · Kroger Field
6-14-1 in conference
TDC Rank
#32
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
+11.1
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
+5.6
36th in FBS
Defense
+5.5
30th in FBS
Schedule so far
+5.9
9th toughest
Projected
8.3-3.7
bowl-eligible >99%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

+11.1 now, +0.7 preseason · up 26 spots since preseason
0+5+10FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8#32

Final record odds

8.3-3.7 expected · most likely 8-4 (35%)
6-619%7-535%8-429%9-312%10-211-1

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Kenny Minchey
QB · SR · 38th in FBS
1552yds
13 TD · 1 INT
Rushing
CJ Baxter
RB · SR · 48th in FBS
484yds
87 car · 8 TD
Receiving
Kenny Darby
WR · FR · 59th in FBS
436yds
34 rec · 3 TD
Tackles
Grant Godfrey
LB · SR · 6th in FBS
67tkl
3 TFL
Sacks
Mi'Quise Humphrey-Grace
DL · SR · 41st in FBS
4sacks
9 hurries
Interceptions
Jordan Castell
DB · SR · 3rd in FBS
4INT
3 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 5vsYoungstown State FCSW 45–13 ›+17.3—SECN+
2Sep 12vs7AlabamaCONFL 17–45 ›-6.3—ABC
3Sep 19@29Texas A&MCONFW 31–21 ›+25.7—ESPN
4Sep 26vs102South AlabamaW 45–21 ›+9.9—SEC Network
5Oct 3@33South CarolinaCONFW 35–34 ›+14.6—SEC Network
6Oct 10vs6LSUCONFW 35–34 ›+20.3—ESPN
7Oct 17@23OklahomaCONFW 21–13 ›+25.1—SEC Network
8Oct 24vs59VanderbiltCONFKentucky −11.9 · o/u 52.1—79%SEC Network
9—Bye
10Nov 7@13TennesseeCONFTennessee −10.6 · o/u 52.9—24%
11Nov 14vs17FloridaCONFFlorida −0.7 · o/u 60.7—48%
12Nov 21@21MissouriCONFMissouri −6.3 · o/u 49.1—34%
13Nov 28vs18LouisvilleLouisville −0.6 · o/u 61.5—49%

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.19250th+0.05252nd
Success rate47.9%29th44.6%111th
Explosiveness1.152113th1.17036th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate48.2%30th45.1%111th
Rushing success rate51.7%8th45.8%110th
Passing success rate44.9%51st44.6%109th
Explosive run rate15.1%53rd10.9%40th
Explosive pass rate10.6%64th8.6%44th
Line yards / carry3.3532nd3.1183rd
Opportunity rate44.9%9th38.3%81st
Stuff rate16.1%63rd16.4%88th
Sack rate7.0%101st5.0%82nd
3rd-down conversion31.1%132nd50.5%134th
Red-zone TD rate70.0%33rd69.2%110th
Havoc rate11.5%36th15.3%38th
Box score · season totals
Points / game32.746th25.992nd
Yards / game387.971st377.096th
Yards / play5.8856th5.0657th
Pass yards / game221.780th249.7117th
Yards / pass att.7.5070th6.5745th
Completion %67.8%25th59.8%52nd
Rush yards / game166.156th127.352nd
Yards / carry4.9041st3.7450th
3rd-down conv. %29.1%135th47.1%130th
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)0.7126th2.293rd
Sacks / game (allowed · made)2.1489th2.5725th
Penalty yards / game44.422nd39.1124th

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
6.6
136th of 138
YAC per catch
7.0
8th of 138
Deep shots (20+)
10%
127th of 138
Shotgun
91%
105th of 138
No-huddle
17%
116th of 138
QB pressured
15%
42nd of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
15%
56th of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
4.4
117th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws202 throws charted

67% comp6.6 avg. depth7.0 YAC/catch10% 20+ air yds13–1 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 26 throws (13%), 26 caught (100%), 212 yds, 8.2 per throw26100% · 212yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 20 throws (10%), 15 caught (75%), 144 yds, 7.2 per throw2075% · 144yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 10 throws (5%), 7 caught (70%), 73 yds, 7.3 per throw1070% · 73yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 1 caught (33%), 14 yds, 4.7 per throw333% · 14yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 2 caught (50%), 33 yds, 8.3 per throw450% · 33yLeft, 20–29 air yards: noneLeft, 30+ air yards: 1 throws (0%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yMiddle, Behind air yards: 2 throws (1%), 2 caught (100%), 13 yds, 6.5 per throw2100% · 13yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 10 throws (5%), 6 caught (60%), 48 yds, 4.8 per throw1060% · 48yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 16 throws (8%), 11 caught (69%), 109 yds, 6.8 per throw1669% · 109yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 3 caught (75%), 39 yds, 9.8 per throw475% · 39yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 5 caught (56%), 95 yds, 10.6 per throw956% · 95yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 3 caught (60%), 105 yds, 21.0 per throw560% · 105yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 53 yds, 26.5 per throw250% · 53yRight, Behind air yards: 25 throws (12%), 21 caught (84%), 119 yds, 4.8 per throw2584% · 119yRight, 0–4 air yards: 24 throws (12%), 17 caught (71%), 161 yds, 6.7 per throw2471% · 161yRight, 5–9 air yards: 15 throws (7%), 7 caught (47%), 68 yds, 4.5 per throw1547% · 68yRight, 10–14 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 2 caught (33%), 26 yds, 4.3 per throw633% · 26yRight, 15–19 air yards: 8 throws (4%), 5 caught (63%), 116 yds, 14.5 per throw863% · 116yRight, 20–29 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 2 caught (29%), 69 yds, 9.9 per throw729% · 69yRight, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (2%), 1 caught (20%), 32 yds, 6.4 per throw520% · 32y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on251 throws charted

60% comp8.6 avg. depth4.4 YAC/catch13% 20+ air yds11–10 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 19 throws (8%), 13 caught (68%), 95 yds, 5.0 per throw1968% · 95yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 17 throws (7%), 10 caught (59%), 62 yds, 3.6 per throw1759% · 62yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 21 throws (8%), 10 caught (48%), 82 yds, 3.9 per throw2148% · 82yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 5 caught (63%), 67 yds, 8.4 per throw863% · 67yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (2%), 2 caught (33%), 37 yds, 6.2 per throw633% · 37yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 1 caught (13%), 25 yds, 3.1 per throw813% · 25yLeft, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 41 yds, 20.5 per throw250% · 41yMiddle, Behind air yards: 4 throws (2%), 4 caught (100%), 26 yds, 6.5 per throw4100% · 26yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 6 caught (67%), 41 yds, 4.6 per throw967% · 41yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 24 throws (10%), 17 caught (71%), 157 yds, 6.5 per throw2471% · 157yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 14 throws (6%), 4 caught (29%), 96 yds, 6.9 per throw1429% · 96yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 12 throws (5%), 8 caught (67%), 169 yds, 14.1 per throw1267% · 169yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 6 throws (2%), 4 caught (67%), 99 yds, 16.5 per throw667% · 99yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw50% · 0yRight, Behind air yards: 18 throws (7%), 18 caught (100%), 72 yds, 4.0 per throw18100% · 72yRight, 0–4 air yards: 22 throws (9%), 18 caught (82%), 105 yds, 4.8 per throw2282% · 105yRight, 5–9 air yards: 25 throws (10%), 16 caught (64%), 154 yds, 6.2 per throw2564% · 154yRight, 10–14 air yards: 16 throws (6%), 11 caught (69%), 149 yds, 9.3 per throw1669% · 149yRight, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 4 caught (57%), 81 yds, 11.6 per throw757% · 81yRight, 20–29 air yards: 6 throws (2%), 4 caught (67%), 103 yds, 17.2 per throw667% · 103yRight, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 32 yds, 16.0 per throw250% · 32y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction213 carries

Left
23%
5.9 YPC · 54% succ.
Middle
56%
5.7 YPC · 53% succ.
Right
21%
6.4 YPC · 51% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced211 carries

Left
19%
4.9 YPC · 59% succ.
Middle
56%
4.1 YPC · 41% succ.
Right
25%
5.9 YPC · 44% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Will Stein

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
3Kenny MincheyQBSR6' 2"211Hendersonville, TN
9Matt PonatoskiQBFR6' 1"205Cincinnati, OH
14Brennen WardQBSO6' 4"227Gahanna, OH
15Carson CruverQBSR6' 3"203Austin, TX
16JacQai LongQBJR6' 2"203Hurricane, WV
17William Drakeford Jr.QBFR6' 2"195Gaithersburg, MD
82Kendall TamblingQBFR6' 5"240Gainesville, FL
1CJ BaxterRBSR6' 1"230Boynton Beach, FL
2Jovantae BarnesRBSR6' 0"211Las Vegas, NV
21Tovani MizellRBJR6' 0"213Fort Lauderdale, FL
22Delvecchio Alston IIRBFR6' 0"210Trussville, AL
26Jason PattersonRBJR5' 10"204Sneads, FL
28Ahmir SmithRBJR5' 10"200Santee, SC
29Jordan ColbertRBJR6' 2"215Merced, CA
34Isaiah JacksonRBFR5' 10"185Richmond, KY
4Nic AndersonWRSR6' 4"208Katy, TX
5Ja'Kayden FergusonWRSO6' 2"184Houston, TX
6Shane CarrWRSR6' 2"185Bakersfield, CA
7DJ MillerWRSO6' 3"208St. Louis, MO
12Brock CoffmanWRSO6' 0"181Lexington, KY
13Denairius GrayWRFR6' 2"181Boynton Beach, FL
18Xavier DaisyWRJR6' 3"212Norcross, GA
19Kenny DarbyWRFR6' 1"180Bossier City, LA
33Rico CrowderWRJR6' 4"201Glasgow, KY
37Spencer LeadbetterWRSR6' 3"198Glenview, IL
39Saxton HowardWRSO6' 0"177Lexington, KY
80Ashton CozartWRSR6' 3"202Flower Mound, TX
83Prince JeanWRFR6' 1"187Valdosta, GA
84Davis McCrayWRFR6' 2"196San Antonio, TX
89Cash HarneyWRFR5' 9"177Covington, KY
8Mikkel SkinnerTESO6' 4"234Greer, SC
44Justin KattusTEJR6' 1"216Cincinnati, OH
81Willie RodriguezTEJR6' 4"249Taylor Mill, KY
85Elijah BrownTESR6' 6"263Dayton, OH
87Henry BoyerTESR6' 6"270Chicago, IL
50Max AndersonOLJR6' 5"311Frisco, TX
52Cameron Miller Jr.OLFR6' 5"341Hammond, IN
53Lance HeardOLSR6' 6"325Bonita, LA
55Aba SelmOLJR6' 4"327Independence, KY
57Jordan KnoxOLSR6' 2"329Rock Hill, SC
60Mason HowardOLFR6' 4"321Fort Thomas, KY
61Jason EkperuohOLSO6' 6"354Montreal, Canada
62Ben MyersOLFR6' 4"286Paducah, KY
63Kyle MixonOLJR6' 5"321Warner Robins, GA
64Ryan MeekerOLFR6' 1"311Wheelersburg, OH
66Tino MerloOLSR6' 2"278Youngstown, OH
67Mark RobinsonOLJR6' 5"328Altamonte Springs, FL
68Alexander DiMartinoOLSO6' 4"306Fort Lauderdale, FL
69Hank TimonOLFR6' 6"318Guilford, IN
70Rob FoglerOLSR6' 7"325Cincinnati, OH
72Coleton PriceOLSR6' 3"308Bowie, TX
73Olaus AlinenOLSR6' 6"329Pori, Finland
74Jermiel Atkins Jr.OLFR6' 8"326Dayton, OH
75Hayes JohnsonOLJR6' 4"310Campbellsville, KY
77Tegra TshabolaOLSR6' 3"329West Chester, OH
78Cameron JonesOLSR6' 6"335Weirton, WV
79Jay ClarkOLSO6' 4"318Cleveland, OH
7Jamarrion HarklessDLSR6' 3"346Lexington, KY
23Brian RobinsonDLJR6' 5"257Youngstown, OH
90Mi'Quise Humphrey-GraceDLSR6' 4"271Cincinnati, OH
93Kalen EdwardsDLSO6' 4"335Dyersburg, TN
94Tavion GadsonDLSR6' 5"303Savannah, GA
92Ben DuncumDEFR6' 5"224Austin, TX
97Tyler ThomasDESR6' 5"260Mobile, AL
6Ahmad BreauxDTJR6' 3"278Ruston, LA
0Elijah BarnesLBSO6' 1"242Dallas, TX
2Sam GreeneLBSR6' 2"251Washington, DC
3Alex Afari Jr.LBSR6' 2"227Cincinnati, OH
4Antwan SmithLBJR6' 3"226Atlanta, GA
8Lorenzo CowanLBJR6' 3"250Savannah, GA
17Justyn HartleyLBFR6' 1"192Hoover, AL
22Grant GodfreyLBSR6' 3"240Suwanee, GA
25Tavion WallaceLBSO6' 1"241Jesup, GA
31Quintavion NormanLBJR6' 3"223Covington, GA
32Devin SmithLBJR6' 0"231Brunswick, GA
0Martels Carter Jr.DBSO6' 0"205Chattanooga, TN
1Andre Clarke Jr.DBFR6' 1"176Richmond, VA
3Aaron GatesDBSR6' 0"199Newnan, GA
5Jordan CastellDBSR6' 2"211Orlando, FL
11Braxton UrquhartDBSR6' 3"200Birmingham, AL
12Hasaan SykesDBJR6' 0"192Tucker, GA
13Cyrus ReyesDBJR6' 1"192Katy, TX
14Ty BryantDBSR6' 0"196Lexington, KY
16Jesse Anderson IIIDBSR6' 0"185Fort Lauderdale, FL
18Mark Manfred IIIDBSO6' 2"171Marietta, GA
19Kevis ThomasDBSR6' 0"181Perry, FL
20Terhyon NicholsDBJR5' 11"194Cincinnati, OH
21Nasir AddisonDBSR6' 0"204Irvington, NJ
24Jaden SmithDBSO6' 3"205Charlotte, NC
26Andrew PurcellDBSO5' 10"201Enterprise, AL
27Isaiah McMillianDBFR6' 1"176Katy, TX
28Demarcus GardnerDBSO6' 0"177Cedartown, GA
30Grant GraytonDBSO6' 3"194Laurel, MD
33Sam Brown IIISFR5' 11"172San Clemente, CA
35Matthew ObermeierPKFR5' 11"160Carmel, IN
91Jacob KauwePKJR6' 1"216Billings, MT
48Thomas O'HaraPSR6' 1"201Melbourne, Australia
93Wilson BerryPSR6' 4"206Maribyrnong, Australia
40Cole MarszalekLSSR5' 11"197Goodyear, AZ
97Spencer RadnotiLSJR6' 3"237Canton, GA

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2018 (+7.9, #26) · worst: 2015 (-4.0, #86)
-50+5+10FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#66
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far6-14-1#32+11.1+5.6+5.5
20255-72-6#66+0.5-1.5+2.0
20244-81-7#60+1.1-2.9+4.0
20237-63-5#41+4.0+2.8+1.1
20227-63-5#51+3.3-3.8+7.1
202110-35-3#35+5.6+2.0+3.5
20205-64-6#58+1.0-4.3+5.3
20198-53-5#36+4.9-1.1+5.9
201810-35-3#26+7.9-0.9+8.8
20177-64-4#71-0.7-0.4-0.3
20167-64-4#67-0.7+1.8-2.5
20155-72-6#86-4.0-1.8-2.3
20145-72-6#67-0.6+1.8-2.4

Kentucky's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Oct 21, 10:45 AM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →