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SEC · 2026

Ole Miss Rebels

Head coach Pete Golding · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
5-13-1 in conference
TDC Rank
#11
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
+20.5
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
+12.9
5th in FBS
Defense
+7.6
23rd in FBS
Schedule so far
+7.8
5th toughest
Projected
9.1-2.9
bowl-eligible >99%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

+20.5 now, +20.1 preseason · down 2 spots since preseason
0+10+20FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8#11

Final record odds

9.1-2.9 expected · most likely 9-3 (36%)
6-66%7-522%8-436%9-328%10-28%11-1

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Trinidad Chambliss
QB · SR · 23rd in FBS
1676yds
14 TD · 4 INT
Rushing
Kewan Lacy
RB · JR · 117th in FBS
352yds
62 car · 5 TD
Receiving
Deuce Alexander
WR · JR · 26th in FBS
523yds
35 rec · 5 TD
Tackles
Luke Ferrelli
LB · SO · 217th in FBS
39tkl
2.5 TFL
Sacks
Blake Purchase
DE · JR · 70th in FBS
3.5sacks
2 hurries
Interceptions
Nick Cull
S · SR · 28th in FBS
2INT
1 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 6vs18LouisvilleNEUTRALW 41–38 ›+18.4—ABC
2Sep 12vs135CharlotteW 41–9 ›-0.8—ESPN2
3Sep 19vs6LSUCONFW 32–24 ›+27.3—ABC
4Sep 26@17FloridaCONFL 28–52 ›-4.6—ABC
5—Bye
6Oct 10@59VanderbiltCONFW 52–17 ›+34.6—ESPN
7Oct 17vs21MissouriCONFW 31–3 ›+35.2—SEC Network
8Oct 24@9TexasCONFTexas −4.8 · o/u 54.1—37%ABC
9Oct 31vs19AuburnCONFOle Miss −9.4 · o/u 58.1—73%SEC Network
10Nov 7vs5GeorgiaCONFOle Miss −0.3 · o/u 61.9—51%
11Nov 14@23OklahomaCONFOle Miss −3.4 · o/u 51.6—59%
12Nov 21vsWofford FCSOle Miss −47.9 · o/u 55.2—>99%SECN+
13Nov 27vs44Mississippi StateCONFOle Miss −17.4 · o/u 65.3—88%ABC

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.31316th+0.169109th
Success rate51.1%8th44.2%104th
Explosiveness1.19893rd1.24170th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate51.7%7th43.8%99th
Rushing success rate53.1%5th44.1%87th
Passing success rate50.7%17th43.5%100th
Explosive run rate16.3%39th11.3%45th
Explosive pass rate9.1%92nd12.4%120th
Line yards / carry3.609th3.0166th
Opportunity rate44.9%9th37.9%76th
Stuff rate13.6%31st23.2%15th
Sack rate1.5%6th5.0%82nd
3rd-down conversion50.0%19th45.2%117th
Red-zone TD rate81.0%5th42.1%15th
Havoc rate8.9%8th13.6%71st
Box score · season totals
Points / game37.519th23.872nd
Yards / game444.536th390.0108th
Yards / play6.4430th5.4482nd
Pass yards / game290.713th236.5104th
Yards / pass att.8.0047th7.5588th
Completion %66.7%41st61.7%74th
Rush yards / game153.872nd153.590th
Yards / carry4.9041st3.9967th
3rd-down conv. %47.2%28th44.0%118th
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)1.3380th1.1766th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)0.8310th1.8385th
Penalty yards / game63.895th65.733rd

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
9.1
48th of 138
YAC per catch
4.0
130th of 138
Deep shots (20+)
12%
105th of 138
Shotgun
98%
37th of 138
No-huddle
75%
50th of 138
QB pressured
12%
82nd of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
17%
32nd of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
5.4
60th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws208 throws charted

67% comp9.1 avg. depth4.0 YAC/catch12% 20+ air yds13–5 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 13 throws (6%), 11 caught (85%), 40 yds, 3.1 per throw1385% · 40yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 11 throws (5%), 8 caught (73%), 43 yds, 3.9 per throw1173% · 43yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 28 throws (13%), 21 caught (75%), 222 yds, 7.9 per throw2875% · 222yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 15 throws (7%), 10 caught (67%), 164 yds, 10.9 per throw1567% · 164yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 4 caught (80%), 73 yds, 14.6 per throw580% · 73yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw50% · 0yLeft, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw20% · 0yMiddle, Behind air yards: 3 throws (1%), 3 caught (100%), 6 yds, 2.0 per throw3100% · 6yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 2 caught (67%), 27 yds, 9.0 per throw367% · 27yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 11 throws (5%), 8 caught (73%), 84 yds, 7.6 per throw1173% · 84yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 16 throws (8%), 8 caught (50%), 128 yds, 8.0 per throw1650% · 128yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 12 throws (6%), 9 caught (75%), 183 yds, 15.3 per throw1275% · 183yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 3 caught (60%), 84 yds, 16.8 per throw560% · 84yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 1 throws (0%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yRight, Behind air yards: 14 throws (7%), 14 caught (100%), 36 yds, 2.6 per throw14100% · 36yRight, 0–4 air yards: 16 throws (8%), 11 caught (69%), 69 yds, 4.3 per throw1669% · 69yRight, 5–9 air yards: 23 throws (11%), 15 caught (65%), 138 yds, 6.0 per throw2365% · 138yRight, 10–14 air yards: 11 throws (5%), 7 caught (64%), 83 yds, 7.5 per throw1164% · 83yRight, 15–19 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 2 caught (67%), 37 yds, 12.3 per throw367% · 37yRight, 20–29 air yards: 9 throws (4%), 3 caught (33%), 76 yds, 8.4 per throw933% · 76yRight, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 2 caught (100%), 85 yds, 42.5 per throw2100% · 85y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on180 throws charted

62% comp8.9 avg. depth5.4 YAC/catch13% 20+ air yds6–5 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 17 throws (9%), 15 caught (88%), 56 yds, 3.3 per throw1788% · 56yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 18 throws (10%), 12 caught (67%), 115 yds, 6.4 per throw1867% · 115yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 19 throws (11%), 12 caught (63%), 140 yds, 7.4 per throw1963% · 140yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 13 throws (7%), 5 caught (38%), 69 yds, 5.3 per throw1338% · 69yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 1 caught (17%), 17 yds, 2.8 per throw617% · 17yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 3 throws (2%), 1 caught (33%), 27 yds, 9.0 per throw333% · 27yLeft, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (2%), 2 caught (67%), 72 yds, 24.0 per throw367% · 72yMiddle, Behind air yards: 2 throws (1%), 2 caught (100%), 1 yds, 0.5 per throw2100% · 1yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 4 caught (80%), 31 yds, 6.2 per throw580% · 31yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 12 throws (7%), 4 caught (33%), 34 yds, 2.8 per throw1233% · 34yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 12 throws (7%), 9 caught (75%), 183 yds, 15.3 per throw1275% · 183yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 2 caught (100%), 49 yds, 24.5 per throw2100% · 49yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: noneMiddle, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (3%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw50% · 0yRight, Behind air yards: 13 throws (7%), 12 caught (92%), 42 yds, 3.2 per throw1392% · 42yRight, 0–4 air yards: 12 throws (7%), 10 caught (83%), 72 yds, 6.0 per throw1283% · 72yRight, 5–9 air yards: 10 throws (6%), 9 caught (90%), 104 yds, 10.4 per throw1090% · 104yRight, 10–14 air yards: 9 throws (5%), 6 caught (67%), 98 yds, 10.9 per throw967% · 98yRight, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 2 caught (33%), 50 yds, 8.3 per throw633% · 50yRight, 20–29 air yards: 9 throws (5%), 3 caught (33%), 70 yds, 7.8 per throw933% · 70yRight, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 2 caught (50%), 72 yds, 18.0 per throw450% · 72y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction176 carries

Left
21%
6.1 YPC · 62% succ.
Middle
65%
5.3 YPC · 51% succ.
Right
14%
6.2 YPC · 46% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced215 carries

Left
25%
5.4 YPC · 50% succ.
Middle
53%
4.0 YPC · 39% succ.
Right
21%
5.7 YPC · 48% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Pete Golding

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
2Deuce KnightQBFR6' 5"225Lucedale, MS
6Trinidad ChamblissQBSR6' 0"205Grand Rapids, MI
8AJ MaddoxQBSO6' 1"195Hattiesburg, MS
13Jack PattersonQBSO6' 3"205Marion, AR
14Walker HowardQBSR6' 0"195Lafayette, LA
16George HamsleyQBSR6' 5"235Memphis, TN
5Kewan LacyRBJR5' 11"205Dallas, TX
25Makhi FrazierRBJR5' 10"225McKinney, TX
26JT LindseyRBFR5' 11"190Alexandria, LA
28Joshua DyeRBJR5' 10"200Gilbert, AZ
33Shekai Mills-KnightRBFR6' 2"220Montreal, Canada
36Ja'Michael JonesRBFR5' 10"200Montgomery, AL
0Johntay Cook IIWRSR5' 11"190Desoto, TX
1Deuce AlexanderWRJR6' 0"180Douglasville, GA
3Caleb CunninghamWRFR6' 1"210Weir, MS
7Traylon RayWRJR6' 2"195Tallahassee, FL
11Horatio FieldsWRSR6' 2"210Douglasville, GA
12Izaiah HartrupWRSR5' 11"180O' Fallon, MO
15Darrell Gill Jr.WRSR6' 1"185Atascocita, TX
22Cameron MillerWRSO5' 10"180Camden, NJ
27Kervin Johnson Jr.WRFR6' 3"210Tioga, LA
29William JonesWRFR5' 11"195Collierville, TN
47Anthony AguirreWRSR6' 4"215Spokane, WA
81Samari ReedWRFR6' 2"200Margate, FL
83Levi BlountWRFR6' 0"190Oxford, MS
84Dillon AlfredWRFR5' 11"175Gautier, MS
88Jase MathewsWRFR6' 2"190Leakesville, MS
89Dylan DavisWRJR6' 1"200Frisco, TX
4Caleb OdomTEJR6' 5"240Carrollton, GA
9Luke HaszTESR6' 2"240Bixby, OK
42Jack HarperTESO6' 4"245Oxford, MS
80Hayden BradleyTEFR6' 4"245Buford, GA
86Brady PrieskornTESO6' 5"245Lake Orion, MI
50Troy EverettOLSR6' 3"315Roanoke, VA
52Cooper JohnsonOLSO6' 6"330Lincoln, NE
53Trey NightingaleOLSO6' 0"265Wyckoff, NJ
55Terez DavisOLSO6' 4"300Hyattsville, MD
57Carius CurneOLSO6' 5"330Hughes, AR
61Tommy Kinsler IVOLJR6' 6"350Ocala, FL
65Connor HowesOLSO6' 6"315Saint Cloud, FL
67Kane MankinsOLFR6' 5"295Attleboro, MA
69Joe KouryOLSO5' 10"280Madison, MS
70Jalan ChapmanOLFR6' 3"315New Orleans, LA
71Emanuel FaulknerOLFR6' 6"305New Albany, MS
75Patrick KutasOLSR6' 6"315Memphis, TN
76John Wayne OliverOLSO6' 5"310Nashville, TN
3Blake PurchaseDEJR6' 3"250Green Valley Ranch, CO
5Kam FranklinDEJR6' 5"295Lake Cormorant, MS
15Landon BarnesDEFR6' 3"250Baton Rouge, LA
17Jonathan MaldonadoDESR6' 6"250Monrovia, CA
45Talib GrahamDEFR6' 1"250Daphne, AL
54Tre EllisDEFR6' 1"260Gallman, MS
55Cam ClarkDESO6' 2"255Medina, TN
99Carmelow ReedDEFR6' 6"275Chicago, IL
9Jehiem OatisDTSR6' 5"340Columbia, MS
52Will EcholesDTJR6' 3"315Houston, MS
88Michai BoireauDTJR6' 5"355Atlanta, GA
90Jayden CurtisDTFR6' 3"275Perkinston, MS
91Jamarion OwensDTFR6' 1"295Raleigh, MS
95Andrew MaddoxDTFR6' 3"285Hattiesburg, MS
96Jamarious BrownDTJR6' 2"315Moss Point, MS
97Kamron BeaversDTSO6' 3"300Bay Springs, MS
4Suntarine PerkinsLBSR6' 2"220Raleigh, MS
12Luke FerrelliLBSO6' 3"230San Diego, CA
22Raymond CollinsLBSR6' 2"235Gulfport, MS
23Jarcoby HopsonLBFR6' 2"250Tunica, MS
26Ant Davis Jr.LBFR6' 1"220Decatur, GA
30JaMichael GarrettLBFR6' 2"200Baton Rouge, LA
44Tony MitchellLBSR6' 1"240Alabaster, AL
49Tah'j ButlerLBJR6' 1"235New Orleans, LA
53Ford BeekerLBFR5' 11"205Tuscaloosa, AL
56Hayden ParkerLBFR5' 11"215Collierville, TN
0Jalyn CrawfordCBJR6' 0"180Atlanta, GA
2Jaylon BraxtonCBJR6' 0"190Frisco, TX
8Antonio KiteCBSR6' 0"190Anniston, AL
13Cedrick BeaversCBSR5' 11"185Taylorsville, MS
16Dorian BarneyCBFR6' 0"185Carrollton, GA
21Tavoy FeaginCBSO6' 0"170Tampa, FL
25Maison DunnCBFR6' 2"185Tupelo, MS
27Pat BroomfieldCBSO6' 1"165Clarksdale, MS
28Dante CoreCBFR5' 11"170Fort Walton Beach, FL
32Victor Lincoln Jr.CBFR5' 11"170Lancaster, TX
34Iverson McCoyCBFR5' 11"185Tupelo, MS
41John Ross AshleyCBJR5' 11"180Vestavia Hills, AL
6Joenel AgueroSSR5' 11"200Lynn, MA
7Sharif DensonSSR5' 11"195Jacksonville, FL
14Edwin JosephSJR6' 0"195Tamarac, FL
19MJ PrestonSFR6' 0"180Petersburg, VA
24Andy JaffeSJR6' 1"195Tampa, FL
29Nick CullSSR5' 11"180Donalsonville, GA
31Ladarian ClardySSO5' 11"190Pensacola, FL
39Gerald Lacy Jr.SJR6' 0"185Lancaster, TX
46Nascar McCoySFR6' 1"200Atlanta, GA
17Lucas CarneiroPKSR5' 11"195Cornelius, NC
41Peter McStravickPKSO6' 2"185Dundalk, Ireland
46Jackson MoorePKSR5' 11"170Waxhaw, NC
33Oscar BirdPSO6' 4"220Sydney, Australia
50Caleb BlankenshipLSSO6' 2"240Ashdown, AR
83Sean JudgeLSSO6' 4"235Attleboro, MA
93Richie BruderLSFR6' 1"225Malvern, PA

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2024 (+16.0, #5) · worst: 2018 (-0.1, #69)
0+5+10+15FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#9
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far5-13-1#11+20.5+12.9+7.6
202513-27-1#9+13.7+9.4+4.2
202410-35-3#5+16.0+6.3+9.7
202311-26-2#15+10.8+6.9+3.9
20228-54-4#27+6.2+5.4+0.8
202110-36-2#24+7.5+6.6+1.0
20205-54-5#46+2.7+9.7-7.1
20194-82-6#53+1.1+0.5+0.6
20185-71-7#69-0.1+5.3-5.4
20176-63-5#62+0.4+5.9-5.5
20165-72-6#50+3.4+6.8-3.4
201510-36-2#6+13.8+7.7+6.1
20149-45-3#8+13.7+0.8+12.9

Ole Miss's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Oct 21, 10:45 AM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →