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Big Ten · 2026

Michigan Wolverines

Head coach Kyle Whittingham · Michigan Stadium
4-21-2 in conference
TDC Rank
#40
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
+7.7
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
+0.1
70th in FBS
Defense
+7.6
23rd in FBS
Schedule so far
+2.1
25th toughest
Projected
6.2-5.8
bowl-eligible 77%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

+7.7 now, +9.7 preseason · down 8 spots since preseason
0+5+10FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8#39

Final record odds

6.2-5.8 expected · most likely 6-6 (39%)
4-819%5-739%6-629%7-58%8-49-3

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Bryce Underwood
QB · 112th in FBS
924yds
5 TD · 6 INT
Rushing
Jordan Marshall
RB · JR · 175th in FBS
293yds
69 car · 4 TD
Receiving
JJ Buchanan
WR · SO · 40th in FBS
482yds
27 rec · 4 TD
Tackles
Troy Bowles
LB · SR · 76th in FBS
50tkl
5 TFL
Sacks
John Henry Daley
DE · SR · 70th in FBS
3.5sacks
1 hurries
Interceptions
Jyaire Hill
CB · SR · 109th in FBS
1INT
0 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 5vs81Western MichiganW 13–12 ›-6.1—NBC
2Sep 12vs23OklahomaW 17–10 ›+16.6—FOX
3Sep 19vs137UTEPW 52–17 ›-2.0—BTN
4Sep 26vs20IowaCONFL 19–20 ›+10.0—CBS
5Oct 3@66MinnesotaCONFL 14–20 ›-0.3—Fox
6—Bye
7Oct 17vs28Penn StateCONFW 21–18 ›+11.1—CBS
8Oct 24vs4IndianaCONFIndiana −14.4 · o/u 42.3—17%Fox
9Oct 31@92RutgersCONFMichigan −10.5 · o/u 54.6—76%BTN
10Nov 7vs63Michigan StateCONFMichigan −9.1 · o/u 43.5—73%
11Nov 14@10OregonCONFOregon −17.3 · o/u 47.2—13%
12Nov 21vs16UCLACONFUCLA −4.2 · o/u 45.5—39%
13Nov 28@2Ohio StateCONFOhio State −23.9 · o/u 44.6—6%Fox

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.08994th-0.0956th
Success rate41.9%82nd34.7%14th
Explosiveness1.18796th1.11219th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate41.8%86th34.8%14th
Rushing success rate41.3%97th33.1%12th
Passing success rate42.6%70th36.5%30th
Explosive run rate9.0%125th6.3%3rd
Explosive pass rate9.8%79th7.9%32nd
Line yards / carry3.1376th2.6215th
Opportunity rate37.0%99th31.4%16th
Stuff rate14.3%35th20.0%41st
Sack rate5.7%91st7.3%27th
3rd-down conversion40.3%81st35.1%40th
Red-zone TD rate75.0%15th33.3%6th
Havoc rate14.5%99th15.0%44th
Box score · season totals
Points / game22.7106th16.220th
Yards / game313.3125th256.54th
Yards / play5.30103rd3.961st
Pass yards / game165.7125th166.813th
Yards / pass att.7.4075th5.7911th
Completion %58.5%109th62.4%85th
Rush yards / game147.784th89.713th
Yards / carry4.2086th2.687th
3rd-down conv. %40.9%71st32.5%28th
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)1.83124th1.3344th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)1.5049th2.5033rd
Penalty yards / game65.8105th38.8126th

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
12.3
6th of 138
YAC per catch
4.6
116th of 138
Deep shots (20+)
22%
6th of 138
Shotgun
96%
66th of 138
No-huddle
19%
111th of 138
QB pressured
8%
121st of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
16%
46th of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
4.3
124th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws102 throws charted

59% comp12.3 avg. depth4.6 YAC/catch22% 20+ air yds6–7 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 5 throws (5%), 5 caught (100%), 8 yds, 1.6 per throw5100% · 8yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 4 throws (4%), 4 caught (100%), 41 yds, 10.3 per throw4100% · 41yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 6 throws (6%), 5 caught (83%), 47 yds, 7.8 per throw683% · 47yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 7 throws (7%), 6 caught (86%), 106 yds, 15.1 per throw786% · 106yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 4 throws (4%), 1 caught (25%), 19 yds, 4.8 per throw425% · 19yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 4 throws (4%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw40% · 0yLeft, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (2%), 1 caught (50%), 32 yds, 16.0 per throw250% · 32yMiddle, Behind air yards: noneMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 3 throws (3%), 2 caught (67%), 21 yds, 7.0 per throw367% · 21yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 6 throws (6%), 4 caught (67%), 40 yds, 6.7 per throw667% · 40yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 3 throws (3%), 2 caught (67%), 30 yds, 10.0 per throw367% · 30yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: noneMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (2%), 1 caught (50%), 28 yds, 14.0 per throw250% · 28yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw20% · 0yRight, Behind air yards: 5 throws (5%), 5 caught (100%), 32 yds, 6.4 per throw5100% · 32yRight, 0–4 air yards: 10 throws (10%), 7 caught (70%), 84 yds, 8.4 per throw1070% · 84yRight, 5–9 air yards: 14 throws (14%), 8 caught (57%), 67 yds, 4.8 per throw1457% · 67yRight, 10–14 air yards: 7 throws (7%), 4 caught (57%), 47 yds, 6.7 per throw757% · 47yRight, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (6%), 4 caught (67%), 76 yds, 12.7 per throw667% · 76yRight, 20–29 air yards: 7 throws (7%), 1 caught (14%), 20 yds, 2.9 per throw714% · 20yRight, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (5%), 1 caught (20%), 49 yds, 9.8 per throw520% · 49y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on117 throws charted

62% comp5.7 avg. depth4.3 YAC/catch7% 20+ air yds7–6 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 12 throws (10%), 10 caught (83%), 51 yds, 4.3 per throw1283% · 51yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 14 throws (12%), 13 caught (93%), 52 yds, 3.7 per throw1493% · 52yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 8 throws (7%), 3 caught (38%), 24 yds, 3.0 per throw838% · 24yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 6 throws (5%), 4 caught (67%), 61 yds, 10.2 per throw667% · 61yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 4 throws (3%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw40% · 0yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw20% · 0yLeft, 30+ air yards: noneMiddle, Behind air yards: 2 throws (2%), 2 caught (100%), 5 yds, 2.5 per throw2100% · 5yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 7 throws (6%), 4 caught (57%), 19 yds, 2.7 per throw757% · 19yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 10 throws (9%), 8 caught (80%), 127 yds, 12.7 per throw1080% · 127yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 3 throws (3%), 2 caught (67%), 22 yds, 7.3 per throw367% · 22yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 1 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (2%), 1 caught (50%), 22 yds, 11.0 per throw250% · 22yMiddle, 30+ air yards: noneRight, Behind air yards: 9 throws (8%), 7 caught (78%), 19 yds, 2.1 per throw978% · 19yRight, 0–4 air yards: 16 throws (14%), 13 caught (81%), 72 yds, 4.5 per throw1681% · 72yRight, 5–9 air yards: 11 throws (9%), 7 caught (64%), 63 yds, 5.7 per throw1164% · 63yRight, 10–14 air yards: 5 throws (4%), 4 caught (80%), 46 yds, 9.2 per throw580% · 46yRight, 15–19 air yards: 2 throws (2%), 1 caught (50%), 33 yds, 16.5 per throw250% · 33yRight, 20–29 air yards: 3 throws (3%), 1 caught (33%), 22 yds, 7.3 per throw333% · 22yRight, 30+ air yards: none
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction196 carries

Left
27%
4.5 YPC · 42% succ.
Middle
54%
4.8 YPC · 45% succ.
Right
20%
4.2 YPC · 44% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced180 carries

Left
21%
4.1 YPC · 42% succ.
Middle
57%
3.1 YPC · 36% succ.
Right
22%
4.0 YPC · 33% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Kyle Whittingham

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
14Tommy CarrQBFR6' 4"195Saline, MI
15Chase HerbstreitQBSO6' 1"210Cincinnati, OH
16Brayden Fowler-NicolosiQBSR6' 3"212Aledo, TX
17Brady SmigielQBFR6' 4"217Thousand Oaks, CA
5Savion HiterRBFR5' 11"212Louisa, VA
23Jordan MarshallRBJR5' 10"220Cincinnati, OH
24Bryson KuzdzalRBSR5' 11"205Grand Rapids, MI
25Micah Ka'apanaRBJR5' 10"192Waianae, HI
26Donovan JohnsonRBSO6' 0"220Savannah, GA
29Jonathan BrownRBFR6' 0"196Westerville, OH
36Tomas O'MearaRBJR5' 10"197Ann Arbor, MI
0Kendrick BellWRSR6' 2"202Kansas City, MO
3Andrew MarshWRSO6' 1"192Katy, TX
6JJ BuchananWRSO6' 4"218Henderson, NV
9Channing GoodwinWRJR6' 1"192Charlotte, NC
10Jaime Ffrench Jr.WRSO6' 2"185Jacksonville, FL
12Salesi MoaWRFR6' 2"186Ogden, UT
13Travis JohnsonWRFR6' 3"185Chesapeake, VA
20Jaylen PileWRFR6' 0"196Grapevine, TX
22Braydon AlfordWRJR5' 8"180Dublin, OH
81Jamar BrowderWRSO6' 4"215Jacksonville, FL
85Logan ForbesWRSR6' 1"195Clarkston, MI
89Kaleb SchlechtWRSR6' 4"213Ann Arbor, MI
18Mason BonnerTEFR6' 7"229Lakewood, CO
40Jimmy PisaniTESR6' 4"236Clarendon Hills, IL
42Jalen HoffmanTESR6' 3"247Burke, VA
44Eli OwensTESO6' 1"247Alcoa, TN
46Crandall QuinnTESR6' 2"242Grand Rapids, MI
80Hogan HansenTEJR6' 6"240Bellevue, WA
83Zack MarshallTESR6' 5"245Carlsbad, CA
50Luke HamiltonOLJR6' 3"298Avon, OH
52Ace HamiltonOLFR6' 2"288Clinton, MD
53Jake GuarneraOLJR6' 3"315Ponte Vedra Beach, FL
55Nathan EfobiOLSR6' 4"303Atlanta, GA
58Malakai LeeOLFR6' 7"359Kaneohe, HI
60Brooks BahrOLSR6' 6"315Lake Forest, IL
64James KavouklisOLSR6' 1"288Tampa, FL
65Andrew BabalolaOLSO6' 6"305Overland Park, KS
67Houston Ka'aha'aina-TorresOLSO6' 4"310Waimanalo, HI
70Brady NortonOLSR6' 4"310Mission Viejo, CA
71Evan LinkOLSR6' 6"313Burke, VA
72Peter DoniniOLSO6' 9"288Summit, NJ
77Blake FrazierOLJR6' 6"302Austin, TX
79Tommy FraumannOLFR6' 8"279Wilmette, IL
89Avery GachOLSO6' 4"302Franklin, MI
96Manuel BeigelOLJR6' 5"307Frankfurt, Germany
8Dom NicholsDEJR6' 5"245Frederick, MD
9Cam BrandtDESR6' 3"270Carson, CA
14Carter MeadowsDEFR6' 7"252Bethesda, MD
37Julius HollyDESO6' 3"234Alpharetta, GA
41Tariq BoneyDEFR6' 1"243Washington, DC
51McHale BladeDEFR6' 4"255Country Club Hills, IL
88Lugard Edokpayi Jr.DEJR6' 7"263Bowie, MD
90John Henry DaleyDESR6' 5"252Alpine, UT
93Benny Patterson IIIDESO6' 1"257Newburgh, IN
94Nate MarshallDESO6' 3"248Oak Park, IL
17Enow EttaDTSR6' 5"328Keller, TX
54Deyvid PalepaleDTJR6' 2"322Anchorage, AK
57Travis MotenDTSO6' 5"330Louisville, KY
91Jonah Lea'eaDTSR6' 5"290San Mateo, CA
92Ted HammondDTJR6' 4"270Cincinnati, OH
95Trey PierceDTSR6' 2"310Chicago, IL
97Titan DavisDTFR6' 4"286Overland, MO
99Bobby KankaDTSO6' 4"295Howell, MI
12Nathaniel Owusu-BoatengLBSO6' 1"216Hyattsville, MD
13Aisea MoaLBSR6' 2"235North Ogden, UT
15Aden ReederLBFR6' 2"223Monroe, OH
18Troy BowlesLBSR6' 0"224Tampa, FL
23Markel DabneyLBFR6' 0"241Chesterfield, VA
30Max AlfordLBSR6' 2"235Park City, UT
33Kaden CatchingsLBFR6' 1"220Jackson, MS
35Ndi EttaLBFR6' 1"215Keller, TX
43Zach LudwigLBJR6' 2"219South Park, PA
49Adam BazziLBJR5' 10"220Rochester Hills, MI
52Christian PierceLBSO6' 0"225Chicago, IL
0Jyaire HillCBSR6' 2"190Kankakee, IL
2Shamari EarlsCBSO6' 2"195Richmond, VA
10Zeke BerryCBSR5' 11"188Pittsburg, CA
16Jo'Ziah EdmondCBJR6' 1"185Indianapolis, IN
32Jeremiah LoweCBJR5' 10"182Lexington, KY
36Josh NicholsCBSR5' 10"215Detroit, MI
38Sam BaronCBSR6' 1"192Cadillac, MI
42Jeffrey ChukwuCBJR6' 1"204Severna Park, MD
1Rod Moore Jr.SSR5' 11"190Dayton, OH
5Jacob OdenSJR6' 0"195Detroit, MI
7Chris BracySJR6' 1"200Mobile, AL
22Jordan DeckSFR6' 1"195Little Elm, TX
25Mason CurtisSJR6' 4"215Nashville, TN
27Ernest NunleySFR6' 1"186Carson, CA
31Nico AndrighettoSSR5' 9"195Mountain View, CA
39Max ReyesSSR5' 11"195Southlake, TX
35Stuart BlakePKJR6' 1"183Jenkintown, PA
97Jacob BaggettPKFR6' 1"190Charlotte, NC
99Trey ButkowskiPKSO5' 11"179Orlando, FL
33Cam BrownPSO6' 3"185Gold Coast, Australia
90Hudson HollenbeckPSR6' 2"215Collierville, TN
93Hunter RobertsonPSR6' 5"213Huntington Woods, MI
46Gavin MagorienLSSO5' 11"210Erie, PA
49Nico CrawfordLSSR6' 0"230Dublin, OH
67Trent MiddletonLSSR6' 1"215Fullerton, CA

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2023 (+22.1, #1) · worst: 2020 (+0.5, #61)
0+10+20FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#26
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far4-21-2#40+7.7+0.1+7.6
20259-47-2#26+7.9+2.8+5.1
20248-55-4#22+8.00.0+8.1
202315-09-0#1+22.1+8.4+13.7
202213-19-0#3+18.3+9.9+8.4
202112-28-1#4+14.8+7.5+7.4
20202-42-4#61+0.5+2.9-2.4
20199-46-3#11+13.3+6.0+7.4
201810-38-1#7+13.8+5.2+8.6
20178-55-4#15+10.3+2.0+8.2
201610-37-2#4+17.7+5.9+11.8
201510-36-2#8+11.8+2.0+9.7
20145-73-5#61+0.5-4.8+5.3

Michigan's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Oct 21, 10:45 AM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →