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Big 12 · 2026

TCU Horned Frogs

Head coach Sonny Dykes · Amon G. Carter Stadium
3-31-2 in conference
TDC Rank
#41
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
+7.3
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
-1.4
81st in FBS
Defense
+8.7
18th in FBS
Schedule so far
-1.1
51st toughest
Projected
5.6-6.4
bowl-eligible 52%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

+7.3 now, +4.4 preseason · up 4 spots since preseason
0+5+10FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8#41

Final record odds

5.6-6.4 expected · most likely 6-6 (32%)
3-914%4-831%5-732%6-616%7-58-4

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Jaden Craig
QB · SR · 21st in FBS
1694yds
10 TD · 5 INT
Rushing
Jeremy Payne
RB · JR · 74th in FBS
429yds
88 car · 2 TD
Receiving
Ed Small
WR · SO · 33rd in FBS
494yds
35 rec · 2 TD
Tackles
Hudson Hooper
LB · SR · 372nd in FBS
32tkl
2 TFL
Sacks
Koron Hayward
LB · SR · 30th in FBS
4.5sacks
0 hurries
Interceptions
Vernon Glover Jr.
CB · SR · 109th in FBS
1INT
2 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Aug 29vs54North CarolinaNEUTRALL 10–15 ›-0.9—ESPN
2Sep 12vsGrambling FCSW 63–7 ›-0.3—ESPN+
3Sep 19vs103Arkansas StateW 31–7 ›+9.9—ESPNU
4Sep 26@51UCFCONFL 13–21 ›+1.3—FS1
5Oct 3vs14BYUCONFL 10–17 ›+6.3—ESPN
6—Bye
7Oct 17@46BaylorCONFW 17–6 ›+21.4—FS1
8Oct 24vs70West VirginiaCONFTCU −11.2 · o/u 57.0—77%ESPN2
9Oct 31vs38KansasCONFTCU −3.2 · o/u 45.0—59%FS1
10Nov 6@25ArizonaCONFArizona −8.9 · o/u 43.8—28%ESPN
11Nov 14vs37Kansas StateCONFTCU −2.6 · o/u 47.2—57%
12Nov 21vs8UtahCONFUtah −11.2 · o/u 46.6—23%
13Nov 26@12Texas TechCONFTexas Tech −15.7 · o/u 46.7—15%ESPN

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.07499th-0.0927th
Success rate41.0%92nd34.2%10th
Explosiveness1.30437th1.0646th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate41.6%91st34.2%8th
Rushing success rate39.3%111th34.8%19th
Passing success rate43.5%59th33.7%12th
Explosive run rate10.1%120th10.1%30th
Explosive pass rate13.0%31st7.0%17th
Line yards / carry2.69127th2.7633rd
Opportunity rate35.7%114th32.9%24th
Stuff rate20.2%108th17.1%78th
Sack rate8.0%116th7.1%29th
3rd-down conversion42.0%64th32.1%11th
Red-zone TD rate61.1%80th46.7%23rd
Havoc rate13.0%63rd13.7%70th
Box score · season totals
Points / game24.097th12.23rd
Yards / game392.369th264.27th
Yards / play5.7069th4.179th
Pass yards / game282.320th172.223rd
Yards / pass att.8.7025th5.9416th
Completion %66.5%42nd53.5%9th
Rush yards / game110.0126th92.015th
Yards / carry3.30128th2.8813th
3rd-down conv. %41.5%64th30.2%13th
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)1.5097th1.3344th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)2.83120th2.3343rd
Penalty yards / game64.398th39.0125th

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
9.3
44th of 138
YAC per catch
5.0
95th of 138
Deep shots (20+)
14%
69th of 138
Shotgun
97%
59th of 138
No-huddle
93%
15th of 138
QB pressured
14%
58th of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
14%
87th of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
5.5
44th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws185 throws charted

66% comp9.3 avg. depth5.0 YAC/catch14% 20+ air yds10–5 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 25 throws (14%), 16 caught (64%), 74 yds, 3.0 per throw2564% · 74yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 11 throws (6%), 7 caught (64%), 56 yds, 5.1 per throw1164% · 56yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 14 throws (8%), 11 caught (79%), 126 yds, 9.0 per throw1479% · 126yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 2 caught (33%), 26 yds, 4.3 per throw633% · 26yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 1 caught (25%), 17 yds, 4.3 per throw425% · 17yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 3 caught (60%), 89 yds, 17.8 per throw560% · 89yLeft, 30+ air yards: 8 throws (4%), 6 caught (75%), 293 yds, 36.6 per throw875% · 293yMiddle, Behind air yards: 4 throws (2%), 3 caught (75%), 27 yds, 6.8 per throw475% · 27yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 5 caught (100%), 41 yds, 8.2 per throw5100% · 41yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 4 caught (67%), 41 yds, 6.8 per throw667% · 41yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 3 caught (50%), 57 yds, 9.5 per throw650% · 57yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 8 throws (4%), 7 caught (88%), 153 yds, 19.1 per throw888% · 153yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 2 caught (50%), 67 yds, 16.8 per throw450% · 67yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 57 yds, 28.5 per throw250% · 57yRight, Behind air yards: 16 throws (9%), 13 caught (81%), 46 yds, 2.9 per throw1681% · 46yRight, 0–4 air yards: 17 throws (9%), 15 caught (88%), 85 yds, 5.0 per throw1788% · 85yRight, 5–9 air yards: 14 throws (8%), 9 caught (64%), 98 yds, 7.0 per throw1464% · 98yRight, 10–14 air yards: 17 throws (9%), 11 caught (65%), 148 yds, 8.7 per throw1765% · 148yRight, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 5 caught (71%), 101 yds, 14.4 per throw771% · 101yRight, 20–29 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw40% · 0yRight, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 42 yds, 21.0 per throw250% · 42y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on168 throws charted

53% comp9.2 avg. depth5.5 YAC/catch12% 20+ air yds2–3 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 13 throws (8%), 8 caught (62%), 27 yds, 2.1 per throw1362% · 27yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 10 throws (6%), 8 caught (80%), 47 yds, 4.7 per throw1080% · 47yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 9 throws (5%), 6 caught (67%), 65 yds, 7.2 per throw967% · 65yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 10 throws (6%), 3 caught (30%), 39 yds, 3.9 per throw1030% · 39yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 9 throws (5%), 4 caught (44%), 73 yds, 8.1 per throw944% · 73yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw40% · 0yLeft, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (2%), 1 caught (33%), 31 yds, 10.3 per throw333% · 31yMiddle, Behind air yards: noneMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 11 throws (7%), 8 caught (73%), 27 yds, 2.5 per throw1173% · 27yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 17 throws (10%), 11 caught (65%), 164 yds, 9.6 per throw1765% · 164yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 4 caught (57%), 57 yds, 8.1 per throw757% · 57yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 3 throws (2%), 3 caught (100%), 55 yds, 18.3 per throw3100% · 55yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 2 caught (100%), 81 yds, 40.5 per throw2100% · 81yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw30% · 0yRight, Behind air yards: 14 throws (8%), 10 caught (71%), 62 yds, 4.4 per throw1471% · 62yRight, 0–4 air yards: 14 throws (8%), 10 caught (71%), 80 yds, 5.7 per throw1471% · 80yRight, 5–9 air yards: 17 throws (10%), 7 caught (41%), 72 yds, 4.2 per throw1741% · 72yRight, 10–14 air yards: 9 throws (5%), 2 caught (22%), 32 yds, 3.6 per throw922% · 32yRight, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 2 caught (29%), 41 yds, 5.9 per throw729% · 41yRight, 20–29 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 1 caught (25%), 62 yds, 15.5 per throw425% · 62yRight, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw20% · 0y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction177 carries

Left
26%
5.0 YPC · 52% succ.
Middle
40%
3.8 YPC · 41% succ.
Right
34%
4.7 YPC · 48% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced170 carries

Left
26%
4.5 YPC · 47% succ.
Middle
53%
3.0 YPC · 31% succ.
Right
21%
4.5 YPC · 40% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Sonny Dykes

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
1Jaden CraigQBSR6' 3"225Montclair, NJ
6Jayden MaplesQBFR6' 1"200Frisco, TX
9Jack DaultonQBFR6' 2"195The Woodlands, TX
11Adam SchobelQBSO6' 5"210Columbus, TX
12David PotterQBSO6' 4"220Texarkana, TX
2Jon DenmanRBSO5' 10"215Palestine, TX
20G'Ivori GrahamRBFR5' 9"190San Antonio, TX
23Amante MartinRBFR5' 11"205Port Arthur, TX
24Joe PitchfordRBJR6' 2"210Liberty Hill, TX
26Jeremy PayneRBJR5' 10"180Missouri City, TX
29Joseph HagmanRBSR6' 0"215Westlake, TX
31Jacob MartinezRBSO5' 8"195Prosper, TX
0Dozie EzukanmaWRJR6' 3"190Keller, TX
3Major EverhartWRSR5' 11"180Amarillo, TX
6Jeremy ScottWRJR6' 3"205Jackson, MS
7Jordan DwyerWRSR6' 0"190Puyallup, WA
13James ScottWRFR6' 5"230Houston, TX
14Khamill PruittWRFR6' 1"180Arlington, TX
15Terry SheltonWRSO6' 4"205Fort Worth, TX
17Dane JonesWRSO6' 0"190Missouri City, TX
18Ed SmallWRSO6' 0"205Austin, TX
22Fletcher FierroWRJR6' 1"195Heath, TX
80Jacobe HayesWRSO5' 10"175Dallas, TX
83Keagan CunninghamWRSR6' 2"180Denton, TX
84Cooper ReidWRFR6' 4"195Dripping Springs, TX
86Sutton LeeWRSR5' 10"175Denton, TX
10Mason PetersonTESO6' 4"245Dickinson, TX
12Lafayette KaiuwayTESR6' 6"260Arlington, TX
81Kari AshleyTESR6' 4"225Marietta, GA
88Ka'Morreun PimptonTESR6' 6"250Fort Worth, TX
89Braden BachTEFR6' 5"240Argyle, TX
51Devan RobisonOLFR6' 3"305Houston, TX
55Samir CamachoOLJR6' 4"295Houston, TX
58Noah McKinneyOLSR6' 4"325Annapolis, MD
59Jaheim BuchanonOLSR6' 4"300Fort Myers, FL
60Cade BennettOLSR6' 4"310Scottsdale, AZ
61Dylan KinneyOLSR6' 3"315Richmond, TX
62Jordan BurnettOLFR6' 4"325Missouri City, TX
64Jacob AhumadaOLSR6' 1"315Gilroy, CA
65Logan SchramOLSO6' 6"325Boerne, TX
66Wesley HarveyOLJR6' 8"305Muskogee, OK
69Gannon GaubertOLSR6' 1"315Dallas, TX
70Ryan HughesOLJR6' 6"320The Woodlands, TX
71Creece BristerOLSO6' 5"315Stephenville, TX
72Jackson JonesOLSO6' 7"310Franklinton, LA
73Kilian RegisteOLSO6' 6"300Keller, TX
74Vincent Johnson Jr.OLFR6' 5"330Sulphur Springs, TX
77Cooper PowersOLSR6' 5"310Danville, CA
34Perry Cole Jr.DTJR6' 3"310Palestine, TX
35Tristan JohnsonDTJR6' 3"295Hurst, TX
52Blake RobinettDTSO6' 4"280Fort Worth, TX
90Kelten MickellDTSR6' 2"295Petal, MS
91Floyd GuidryDTSO6' 2"285Spring, TX
92Ansel Din-MbuhDTSR6' 3"300Aledo, TX
95Markis DealDTSR6' 5"320El Paso, TX
96Maddox FlyntDTFR6' 2"285Austin, TX
0Zach ChapmanLBSR6' 5"265Missouri City, TX
3Max CarrollLBSR6' 3"230Memphis, TN
11Michael ShortLBSR6' 3"235Charlotte, NC
14John SchobelLBSO6' 5"245Columbus, TX
16Koron HaywardLBSR6' 5"245Jacksonville, FL
19Jesse FordLBFR6' 5"255Arlington, TX
23Keylan AbramsLBSO6' 2"215Desoto, TX
31Noriel DominguezLBFR6' 2"240Miami, FL
32Dillon ArkansasLBSO6' 1"210Denton, TX
36Cheta OfiliLBJR6' 4"245Rowlett, TX
37Hudson HooperLBSR6' 2"235Cypress, TX
38Zion JunkLBSO6' 0"210Halawa, HI
40Oliver GunnLBFR6' 1"235La Grange, TX
41Caleb CortezLBSR6' 0"225Celina, TX
44Sam HaleyLBSO6' 3"230Nashville, TN
46Rhett SteppeLBJR6' 2"230Austin, TX
49Anders CornLBSO6' 2"230Dallas, TX
94Jared MartinLBSO6' 3"240El Centro, CA
97Paul OyewaleLBSR6' 4"265Houston, TX
98Carter BuckLBFR6' 6"255Austin, TX
1Vernon Glover Jr.CBSR6' 1"195Dickinson, TX
4Gil Jackson Jr.CBSO6' 3"195Richmond, TX
12Kalen CarrollCBSR6' 1"185Indianapolis, IN
16Brock KingCBFR5' 11"180Beaumont, TX
17Devondre McGeeCBJR6' 2"190Hearne, TX
21Teon ParksCBSR6' 1"180Detroit, MI
26Deon MaysCBSO6' 1"185Arlington, TX
30Max RankinCBSO5' 10"190La Mirada, CA
2Jamel JohnsonSSR6' 1"205Arlington, TX
6Kylin JacksonSSR6' 3"200Clinton, LA
7Julius SimmsSSO6' 2"205Whitehouse, TX
15Devyn HidrogoSJR6' 0"205Franklin, TX
18Kaden McFaddenSJR5' 11"200Texarkana, TX
22Jordan LesterSSR6' 2"190Mesquite, TX
24Joseph AlbrightSSO5' 11"180Houston, TX
29Jason BradfordSFR6' 2"200Temple, TX
39Jack PitchfordSFR5' 11"185Liberty Hill, TX
42Sebastian PetersonSJR6' 0"185Anaheim, CA
34Kyle LemmermannPKJR6' 2"190Southlake, TX
41Sam BisesiPKJR6' 1"185New Canaan, CT
99Nate McCashlandPKSR5' 10"175Lincoln, NE
48John Hoyet ChancePJR6' 1"205Shreveport, LA
97Easton BlackPSR6' 3"200Peoria, AZ
54Aaron BowersLSSR6' 3"215Hurst, TX

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2014 (+16.5, #4) · worst: 2021 (-2.8, #83)
0+10FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#34
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far3-31-2#41+7.3-1.4+8.7
20259-45-4#34+5.8+4.7+1.1
20249-46-3#34+5.3+4.6+0.8
20235-73-6#30+5.5+5.0+0.5
202213-29-0#10+10.9+10.1+0.8
20215-73-6#83-2.8+1.5-4.4
20206-45-4#31+5.5+1.4+4.1
20195-73-6#39+3.8+0.9+2.9
20187-64-5#51+2.5-4.7+7.2
201711-37-2#13+11.8+2.3+9.5
20166-74-5#54+2.2+1.3+0.9
201511-27-2#15+10.7+8.4+2.4
201412-18-1#4+16.5+9.8+6.7

TCU's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Oct 21, 10:45 AM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →