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Big 12 · 2026

Baylor Bears

Head coach Dave Aranda · McLane Stadium
4-22-1 in conference
TDC Rank
#46
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
+6.6
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
+1.6
59th in FBS
Defense
+5.0
33rd in FBS
Schedule so far
-0.7
46th toughest
Projected
6.1-5.9
bowl-eligible 69%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

+6.6 now, -0.8 preseason · up 21 spots since preseason
0+5+10FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8#46

Final record odds

6.1-5.9 expected · most likely 6-6 (32%)
7%4-824%5-732%6-624%7-510%8-49-3

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
DJ Lagway
QB · JR · 91st in FBS
1116yds
8 TD · 3 INT
Rushing
Dawson Pendergrass
RB · SR · 143rd in FBS
328yds
89 car · 1 TD
Receiving
Gavin Freeman
WR · SR · 23rd in FBS
555yds
49 rec · 2 TD
Tackles
Travion Barnes
LB · SR · 304th in FBS
35tkl
3.5 TFL
Sacks
Daniel Cobbs
S · SR · 95th in FBS
3sacks
1 hurries
Interceptions
Devon Jordan
CB · JR · 28th in FBS
2INT
3 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 5vs19AuburnNEUTRALL 16–17 ›+13.9—ABC
2Sep 12vsPrairie View A&M FCSW 44–3 ›-3.8—ESPN+
3Sep 19vs80Louisiana TechW 36–19 ›+10.3—ESPNU
4Sep 26vs56ColoradoCONFW 23–13 ›+9.7—ESPN2
5Oct 3@62Arizona StateCONFW 55–19 ›+34.5—ESPN
6—Bye
7Oct 17vs41TCUCONFL 6–17 ›-7.5—FS1
8Oct 24@38KansasCONFKansas −5.1 · o/u 51.6—37%TNT
9Oct 30@51UCFCONFUCF −2.7 · o/u 46.3—43%ESPN
10Nov 7vs45Iowa StateCONFBaylor −3.6 · o/u 49.5—59%
11Nov 14@14BYUCONFBYU −14.2 · o/u 47.3—17%
12Nov 21vs12Texas TechCONFTexas Tech −8.9 · o/u 53.3—28%
13Nov 28@30HoustonCONFHouston −8.6 · o/u 52.9—28%

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.09093rd-0.06810th
Success rate37.2%128th34.9%15th
Explosiveness1.4337th1.16935th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate37.9%126th34.6%11th
Rushing success rate40.4%103rd29.8%3rd
Passing success rate36.0%123rd38.0%43rd
Explosive run rate7.9%132nd14.3%90th
Explosive pass rate11.8%49th8.9%51st
Line yards / carry2.88112th2.5410th
Opportunity rate37.1%97th31.7%17th
Stuff rate16.3%64th24.2%14th
Sack rate4.6%58th8.1%15th
3rd-down conversion41.2%73rd39.5%71st
Red-zone TD rate52.4%104th41.2%10th
Havoc rate14.1%90th19.1%6th
Box score · season totals
Points / game30.065th14.79th
Yards / game436.238th326.739th
Yards / play5.20111th4.3716th
Pass yards / game286.016th240.0111th
Yards / pass att.6.70110th6.3236th
Completion %55.5%122nd59.6%50th
Rush yards / game150.280th86.79th
Yards / carry3.80108th2.616th
3rd-down conv. %40.2%78th36.5%58th
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)1.67113th1.8316th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)2.0079th3.674th
Penalty yards / game66.8107th66.229th

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
10.5
21st of 138
YAC per catch
4.3
123rd of 138
Deep shots (20+)
18%
25th of 138
Shotgun
100%
1st of 138
No-huddle
99%
1st of 138
QB pressured
9%
113th of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
16%
38th of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
5.0
87th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws242 throws charted

55% comp10.5 avg. depth4.3 YAC/catch18% 20+ air yds12–6 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 17 throws (7%), 13 caught (76%), 30 yds, 1.8 per throw1776% · 30yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 15 throws (6%), 12 caught (80%), 56 yds, 3.7 per throw1580% · 56yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 22 throws (9%), 13 caught (59%), 137 yds, 6.2 per throw2259% · 137yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 15 throws (6%), 9 caught (60%), 133 yds, 8.9 per throw1560% · 133yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 5 caught (50%), 113 yds, 11.3 per throw1050% · 113yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 5 caught (50%), 124 yds, 12.4 per throw1050% · 124yLeft, 30+ air yards: 10 throws (4%), 2 caught (20%), 84 yds, 8.4 per throw1020% · 84yMiddle, Behind air yards: 1 throws (0%), 1 caught (100%), 2 yds, 2.0 per throw1100% · 2yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 2 caught (50%), 6 yds, 1.5 per throw450% · 6yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 16 throws (7%), 7 caught (44%), 77 yds, 4.8 per throw1644% · 77yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 12 throws (5%), 11 caught (92%), 154 yds, 12.8 per throw1292% · 154yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 3 caught (75%), 68 yds, 17.0 per throw475% · 68yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 6 throws (2%), 3 caught (50%), 78 yds, 13.0 per throw650% · 78yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw30% · 0yRight, Behind air yards: 22 throws (9%), 18 caught (82%), 127 yds, 5.8 per throw2282% · 127yRight, 0–4 air yards: 16 throws (7%), 12 caught (75%), 83 yds, 5.2 per throw1675% · 83yRight, 5–9 air yards: 23 throws (10%), 9 caught (39%), 81 yds, 3.5 per throw2339% · 81yRight, 10–14 air yards: 16 throws (7%), 5 caught (31%), 92 yds, 5.8 per throw1631% · 92yRight, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 4 caught (57%), 82 yds, 11.7 per throw757% · 82yRight, 20–29 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 2 caught (29%), 56 yds, 8.0 per throw729% · 56yRight, 30+ air yards: 6 throws (2%), 1 caught (17%), 33 yds, 5.5 per throw617% · 33y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on217 throws charted

58% comp7.3 avg. depth5.0 YAC/catch10% 20+ air yds5–6 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 20 throws (9%), 14 caught (70%), 67 yds, 3.4 per throw2070% · 67yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 22 throws (10%), 10 caught (45%), 64 yds, 2.9 per throw2245% · 64yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 25 throws (12%), 15 caught (60%), 147 yds, 5.9 per throw2560% · 147yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 8 throws (4%), 4 caught (50%), 63 yds, 7.9 per throw850% · 63yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw20% · 0yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 8 throws (4%), 3 caught (38%), 78 yds, 9.8 per throw838% · 78yLeft, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (1%), 3 caught (100%), 150 yds, 50.0 per throw3100% · 150yMiddle, Behind air yards: 5 throws (2%), 5 caught (100%), 38 yds, 7.6 per throw5100% · 38yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 8 throws (4%), 7 caught (88%), 45 yds, 5.6 per throw888% · 45yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 12 throws (6%), 4 caught (33%), 32 yds, 2.7 per throw1233% · 32yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 5 caught (100%), 70 yds, 14.0 per throw5100% · 70yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 2 caught (50%), 32 yds, 8.0 per throw450% · 32yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 1 throws (0%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (1%), 1 caught (33%), 30 yds, 10.0 per throw333% · 30yRight, Behind air yards: 23 throws (11%), 21 caught (91%), 123 yds, 5.3 per throw2391% · 123yRight, 0–4 air yards: 15 throws (7%), 10 caught (67%), 57 yds, 3.8 per throw1567% · 57yRight, 5–9 air yards: 19 throws (9%), 12 caught (63%), 98 yds, 5.2 per throw1963% · 98yRight, 10–14 air yards: 16 throws (7%), 7 caught (44%), 92 yds, 5.8 per throw1644% · 92yRight, 15–19 air yards: 13 throws (6%), 5 caught (38%), 136 yds, 10.5 per throw1338% · 136yRight, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 2 caught (40%), 52 yds, 10.4 per throw540% · 52yRight, 30+ air yards: none
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction217 carries

Left
19%
5.8 YPC · 49% succ.
Middle
64%
3.8 YPC · 37% succ.
Right
17%
6.5 YPC · 43% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced172 carries

Left
16%
4.7 YPC · 56% succ.
Middle
59%
3.0 YPC · 27% succ.
Right
25%
5.1 YPC · 44% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Dave Aranda

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
2DJ LagwayQBJR6' 3"237Willis, TX
12Nate BennettQBJR6' 1"192Westlake Village, CA
13Quinn MurphyQBFR6' 3"209Argyle, TX
14Edward GriffinQBSO6' 1"213Coppell, TX
17Cade TessierQBSR6' 3"219Montgomery, TX
11Caden KnightenRBSO5' 11"211Wynnewood, OK
25Ryelan MorrisRBFR5' 10"185Honey Grove, TX
33HD DavisRBFR5' 10"200Wolfe City, TX
35Dawson PendergrassRBSR6' 2"225Alba, TX
1Dre'lon MillerWRJR6' 0"207Silsbee, TX
3Jadon PorterWRJR6' 1"192Lorena, TX
4Louis Brown IVWRSR6' 2"206Los Angeles, CA
6Gavin FreemanWRSR5' 9"181Oklahoma City, OK
15Jayden McGowanWRSR5' 7"187Laurens, SC
16London SmithWRFR6' 0"211Waco, TX
32Brody DayWRSO5' 11"188Spring Branch, TX
34Davion PetersWRFR5' 9"172Belton, TX
80Jackson BairdWRJR6' 4"198Waco, TX
81Ryne ShackelfordWRSR6' 0"186Elyria, OH
83DeBraun HamptonWRJR5' 10"184Montgomery, TX
84Chase CollierWRSO6' 1"181Jacksonville, FL
87Ashton JonesWRSO6' 5"202Pearland, TX
89Michael Johnson Jr.WRJR6' 3"207Batesville, MS
10Tony LivingstonTESR6' 6"255Tampa, FL
46Parker AlmanzaTEFR6' 2"245Trophy Club, TX
85Matthew KlopfensteinTESR6' 4"248Scottsdale, AZ
86Hawkins PolleyTESR6' 4"256Houston, TX
56Harrison CluffOLSO6' 4"315Columbia, MS
57Journey TalaOLSO6' 3"302San Diego, CA
58Cooper LovelaceOLSR6' 5"313Prairie Village, KS
61Cayden ToneOLSR6' 5"295Pacifica, CA
62Alessandro LorenzettiOLSR6' 5"314Montreal, Canada
63Wyatt SwanerOLJR6' 1"287Dallas, TX
64Jaydon MendiolaOLSO6' 4"308Clovis, CA
66Koltin SierackiOLJR6' 4"317The Woodlands, TX
67David Roberts Jr.OLSO6' 5"341Irmo, SC
69Donel Robinson Jr.OLFR6' 3"308Durant, MS
70Nate KibbleOLJR6' 3"333Humble, TX
71Matthew ParkerOLSO6' 7"316Flowood, MS
72Asher HaleOLJR6' 5"326Mobile, AL
73Keystone AllisonOLSR6' 3"317Carthage, TX
74Kaden SierackiOLSR6' 9"310The Woodlands, TX
75Muyont'a MaxwellOLJR6' 4"295Kansas City, MO
76Lawson PettyOLSR6' 2"305Dallas, TX
77Logan MooreOLSR6' 8"296San Diego, CA
78Cole RhettOLSR6' 6"348Columbus, OH
79Connor CameronOLJR6' 7"306Gilbert, AZ
52Aleki ManutaiDLJR6' 2"280Mission Viejo, CA
54Jae'Lin BattleDLFR6' 2"303Oklahoma City, OK
59Devonte TezinoDLSR6' 5"284Killeen, TX
90Braylen JacksonDLSR6' 4"289Mansfield, TX
91Traevon MitchellDLSR6' 0"282Waldorf, MD
98Jackson BlackwellDLSO6' 3"314Lorena, TX
9Ryan DavisDESR6' 4"251Phoenix, AZ
13Garrick PonderDESR6' 2"247St. Petersburg, FL
40Kyler JordanDESR6' 2"251Lubbock, TX
55Jaylin JonesDEJR6' 6"230Beaumont, TX
57Christopher JohnsonDESO6' 3"265Rosharon, TX
92Trent ThomasDESR6' 6"259Missouri City, TX
93Zavion HardyDESR6' 5"281Macon, GA
94Tyrone MorganDEFR6' 3"218Baton Rouge, LA
97Jordan MackDESR6' 4"277Waldorf, MD
5Travion BarnesLBSR6' 0"247Altamonte Springs, FL
10Kyland ReedLBJR6' 1"222Arlington, TX
31Anthony Crenshaw Jr.LBSR6' 0"218Arlington, TX
41Kaleb BurnsLBSO6' 1"224Houston, TX
42Jamarion PhillipsLBFR6' 0"222Dallas, TX
44JJ SheltonLBSO6' 1"204Dallas, TX
46Jahiem PorterLBFR6' 1"245Cedar Park, TX
49Trey LaurenceLBSR6' 0"220San Antonio, TX
56Kaleb ArterberryLBSO6' 3"246Pearl, MS
7Devon JordanCBJR5' 11"183Tulsa, OK
12Kyler BeatyCBJR6' 2"202Comanche, TX
22Reggie Bush IICBSR6' 0"190Frisco, TX
23Stilton McKelveyCBSR5' 11"178Houston, TX
25LeVar Thornton Jr.CBSR6' 3"182Fort Worth, TX
27Jayden RoweCBSR6' 2"227Tulsa, OK
28Calvin Simpson-HuntCBSR6' 0"209Waxahachie, TX
33Kalique CheevesCBSO6' 1"155Livermore, CA
34Daniel EdeniCBJR6' 2"203San Antonio, TX
38Jamarion RichardsonCBFR5' 10"162Texarkana, TX
8Jacob ReddingSSR6' 1"198New Braunfels, TX
11Devin TurnerSSR6' 2"205Little Elm, TX
14Daniel CobbsSSR5' 11"199Fort Worth, TX
15Colby McCalisterSSR5' 10"200Houston, TX
19Leo Almanza Jr.SSO6' 2"192Trophy Club, TX
21Bo OnuSSO6' 0"210Carrollton, TX
24Micah GiffordSSR6' 3"205Pflugerville, TX
26Colin PeacockSSO6' 1"206Gunter, TX
29Jordan DavisSFR6' 2"204Prosper, TX
30Michael AllenSSR5' 7"180Stilwell, KS
32Austin AusberrySSR6' 0"193Baton Rouge, LA
37Demetrius BrisbonSSO5' 11"181Tyler, TX
39Cole ReddingSSO5' 10"187New Braunfels, TX
48Jad DarkazalliSJR6' 0"190Arlington, TX
96Riley SullivanPKSR6' 3"216Lexington, NC
97Bronson MuellerPKFR5' 9"204Rockwall, TX
98Rhett ArmstrongPKSO6' 5"209Monument, CO
60Brady HibbardLSJR6' 2"201Marshville, NC
93Dylan SchaubLSSR6' 5"231New Waverly, TX

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2014 (+15.0, #6) · worst: 2017 (-6.2, #97)
0+10FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#70
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far4-22-1#46+6.6+1.6+5.0
20255-73-6#70-0.1+5.4-5.6
20248-56-3#40+4.7+5.6-1.0
20233-92-7#102-5.8-1.4-4.4
20226-74-5#31+5.3+3.5+1.8
202112-27-2#12+9.7+1.9+7.8
20202-72-7#64+0.3-2.2+2.5
201911-38-1#20+9.3+3.2+6.1
20187-64-5#79-0.9+1.4-2.3
20171-111-8#97-6.2-1.2-5.0
20167-63-6#48+3.5+3.3+0.2
201510-36-3#7+12.5+12.4+0.1
201411-28-1#6+15.0+13.4+1.6

Baylor's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Oct 21, 10:45 AM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →