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Big 12 · 2026

UCF Knights

Head coach Scott Frost · Acrisure Bounce House
3-31-2 in conference
TDC Rank
#51
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
+5.5
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
+0.8
64th in FBS
Defense
+4.7
34th in FBS
Schedule so far
-0.9
48th toughest
Projected
5.9-6.1
bowl-eligible 62%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

+5.5 now, +1.2 preseason · up 4 spots since preseason
0+5FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8#51

Final record odds

5.9-6.1 expected · most likely 6-6 (31%)
3-911%4-825%5-731%6-622%7-59%8-49-3

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Keyone Jenkins
QB · SR · 122nd in FBS
806yds
8 TD · 3 INT
Rushing
Duke Watson
RB · 49th in FBS
483yds
70 car · 3 TD
Receiving
Josh Derry
WR · SR · 162nd in FBS
304yds
28 rec · 2 TD
Tackles
Tackett Curtis
LB · SR · 217th in FBS
39tkl
3 TFL
Sacks
Isaiah Nixon
EDGE · JR · 149th in FBS
2.5sacks
3 hurries
Interceptions
Demari Henderson
DB · SR · 28th in FBS
2INT
3 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 3vsBethune-Cookman FCSW 73–6 ›+2.9—ESPN+
2Sep 12@42PittsburghL 7–12 ›+6.0—ESPN2
3Sep 19vs99Georgia StateW 44–30 ›+1.2—ESPN+
4Sep 26vs41TCUCONFW 21–13 ›+11.5—FS1
5Oct 3@30HoustonCONFL 17–27 ›+5.2—ESPN2
6Oct 10@39Oklahoma StateCONFL 28–42 ›-2.5—ESPN2
7—Bye
8Oct 24vs14BYUCONFBYU −7.8 · o/u 46.9—30%Fox
9Oct 30vs46BaylorCONFUCF −2.7 · o/u 46.3—57%ESPN
10Nov 7@38KansasCONFKansas −6.2 · o/u 51.2—34%
11Nov 14vs62Arizona StateCONFUCF −6.8 · o/u 54.9—67%
12Nov 20vs45Iowa StateCONFUCF −2.5 · o/u 49.1—56%FS1
13Nov 28@56ColoradoCONFColorado −1.8 · o/u 43.8—45%

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.07499th0.00032nd
Success rate40.2%100th40.6%60th
Explosiveness1.24667th1.10717th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate40.8%98th40.4%56th
Rushing success rate42.1%93rd36.9%29th
Passing success rate39.5%100th43.7%104th
Explosive run rate15.7%45th6.4%4th
Explosive pass rate7.9%118th10.6%86th
Line yards / carry2.9599th2.518th
Opportunity rate36.5%104th29.4%5th
Stuff rate18.2%87th18.7%55th
Sack rate4.1%48th5.0%82nd
3rd-down conversion37.9%96th41.5%97th
Red-zone TD rate65.0%57th55.0%52nd
Havoc rate12.1%45th14.8%49th
Box score · season totals
Points / game31.752nd21.750th
Yards / game354.899th355.269th
Yards / play5.6872nd4.9349th
Pass yards / game192.7106th236.8105th
Yards / pass att.6.80106th7.1474th
Completion %68.2%21st60.3%56th
Rush yards / game162.261st118.339th
Yards / carry5.0036th3.2127th
3rd-down conv. %35.6%106th38.5%82nd
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)1.1766th1.8316th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)1.6756th2.0073rd
Penalty yards / game50.740th60.549th

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
7.7
109th of 138
YAC per catch
4.9
102nd of 138
Deep shots (20+)
13%
86th of 138
Shotgun
94%
86th of 138
No-huddle
61%
71st of 138
QB pressured
11%
99th of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
15%
53rd of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
4.8
97th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws164 throws charted

68% comp7.7 avg. depth4.9 YAC/catch13% 20+ air yds10–4 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 10 throws (6%), 10 caught (100%), 35 yds, 3.5 per throw10100% · 35yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 16 throws (10%), 13 caught (81%), 80 yds, 5.0 per throw1681% · 80yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 13 throws (8%), 10 caught (77%), 101 yds, 7.8 per throw1377% · 101yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 6 caught (86%), 94 yds, 13.4 per throw786% · 94yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw20% · 0yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 26 yds, 13.0 per throw250% · 26yLeft, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw40% · 0yMiddle, Behind air yards: 7 throws (4%), 6 caught (86%), 38 yds, 5.4 per throw786% · 38yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 9 throws (5%), 6 caught (67%), 29 yds, 3.2 per throw967% · 29yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 9 throws (5%), 6 caught (67%), 48 yds, 5.3 per throw967% · 48yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 6 throws (4%), 4 caught (67%), 59 yds, 9.8 per throw667% · 59yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (4%), 4 caught (67%), 74 yds, 12.3 per throw667% · 74yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 3 throws (2%), 2 caught (67%), 48 yds, 16.0 per throw367% · 48yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw40% · 0yRight, Behind air yards: 19 throws (12%), 14 caught (74%), 63 yds, 3.3 per throw1974% · 63yRight, 0–4 air yards: 21 throws (13%), 18 caught (86%), 129 yds, 6.1 per throw2186% · 129yRight, 5–9 air yards: 11 throws (7%), 7 caught (64%), 76 yds, 6.9 per throw1164% · 76yRight, 10–14 air yards: 3 throws (2%), 3 caught (100%), 92 yds, 30.7 per throw3100% · 92yRight, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 1 caught (20%), 15 yds, 3.0 per throw520% · 15yRight, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 2 caught (40%), 61 yds, 12.2 per throw540% · 61yRight, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 39 yds, 19.5 per throw250% · 39y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on186 throws charted

60% comp8.3 avg. depth4.8 YAC/catch10% 20+ air yds5–6 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 15 throws (8%), 12 caught (80%), 67 yds, 4.5 per throw1580% · 67yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 14 throws (8%), 6 caught (43%), 27 yds, 1.9 per throw1443% · 27yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 16 throws (9%), 8 caught (50%), 69 yds, 4.3 per throw1650% · 69yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 3 caught (43%), 35 yds, 5.0 per throw743% · 35yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 3 caught (50%), 56 yds, 9.3 per throw650% · 56yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 3 caught (60%), 97 yds, 19.4 per throw560% · 97yLeft, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (2%), 3 caught (100%), 110 yds, 36.7 per throw3100% · 110yMiddle, Behind air yards: noneMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 19 throws (10%), 13 caught (68%), 100 yds, 5.3 per throw1968% · 100yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 18 throws (10%), 17 caught (94%), 165 yds, 9.2 per throw1894% · 165yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 8 throws (4%), 5 caught (63%), 101 yds, 12.6 per throw863% · 101yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 10 throws (5%), 8 caught (80%), 187 yds, 18.7 per throw1080% · 187yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw20% · 0yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 1 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yRight, Behind air yards: 8 throws (4%), 7 caught (88%), 32 yds, 4.0 per throw888% · 32yRight, 0–4 air yards: 18 throws (10%), 11 caught (61%), 112 yds, 6.2 per throw1861% · 112yRight, 5–9 air yards: 15 throws (8%), 8 caught (53%), 68 yds, 4.5 per throw1553% · 68yRight, 10–14 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 4 caught (57%), 48 yds, 6.9 per throw757% · 48yRight, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 3 caught (43%), 54 yds, 7.7 per throw743% · 54yRight, 20–29 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 1 caught (17%), 41 yds, 6.8 per throw617% · 41yRight, 30+ air yards: 1 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction180 carries

Left
24%
7.7 YPC · 56% succ.
Middle
57%
5.2 YPC · 39% succ.
Right
19%
5.4 YPC · 49% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced199 carries

Left
24%
5.1 YPC · 44% succ.
Middle
58%
3.0 YPC · 35% succ.
Right
18%
5.2 YPC · 42% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Scott Frost

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
8Rocco MarriottQBFR6' 4"220Kansas City, MO
10Kaleb AnnettQBSO6' 3"200Newport Beach, CA
12Keyone JenkinsQBSR6' 0"200Opa Locka, FL
14Alonza Barnett IIIQBSR5' 11"210Whitsett, NC
16Dante CarrQBFR6' 4"220Minersville, PA
4Taevion SwintRBFR5' 10"185Kissimmee, FL
11Landen ChambersRBJR5' 11"215Fort Worth, TX
20Kaj BakerRBFR5' 8"160Miami, FL
24Arthur Lewis IVRBFR5' 10"180Palatka, FL
35Agyeman AddaeRBSO5' 10"190Miami, FL
42Chance NixonRBFR5' 9"179Oviedo, FL
2Tyren HornesWRFR6' 0"175Bradenton, FL
3Jonathan BibbsWRSO6' 1"180Birmingham, AL
5Josh DerryWRSR5' 9"182Baltimore, MD
6Ric'Darious FarmerWRSO6' 0"160Melbourne, FL
9Waden CharlesWRSO6' 2"195Boynton Beach, FL
13Caleb RollersonWRSO6' 2"210Ocala, FL
23Jordan NunuhaWRFR6' 3"195Nanakuli, HI
39Andrea ParisiWRSO5' 11"195Bergamo, Italy
80Elijah HardyWRFR6' 0"180Miami, FL
81Zack PalmerWRFR6' 0"190Orlando, FL
82Jordyn BridgewaterWRSO6' 0"165New Orleans, LA
85Carson HinshawWRSO5' 10"165Lake Mary, FL
86Chase HinshawWRFR6' 2"181Lake Mary, FL
18Caden PieningTEFR6' 5"245Cincinnati, OH
47Sam PowellTEFR6' 3"205Naples, FL
83Dylan BurkTESO6' 7"255Melbourne, FL
87Brooks HallTEFR6' 5"225Platte City, MO
88Grayson BrousseauTESO6' 5"245Lehi, UT
53LaParka LangstonOLJR6' 7"285Atlanta, GA
55Jacob MaiavaOLFR6' 2"280Kahuku, HI
57Camp LottOLFR6' 6"290Mccomb, MS
58Connor MeadowsOLSR6' 4"300Trenton, TN
61Owen SpellOLSR6' 8"305Jesup, GA
67Noah SenkaOLSO6' 2"295Seminole, FL
68Ethan HigginsOLJR6' 6"270Brooksville, FL
70RaiShaun McHaneyOLFR6' 8"270Indianapolis, IN
72Dominick CampbellOLSR6' 9"310Scarborough, ME
73Henry TabansiOLJR6' 5"306Staten Island, NY
74Matthew PrigmoreOLJR6' 3"315Weston, FL
75Tyler GibsonOLSR6' 5"308Atlanta, GA
76Justin RoyesOLJR6' 5"300Suffolk, VA
77Kasiyah CharltonOLFR6' 7"315Brunswick, GA
78Preston CushmanOLSR6' 5"305St. Petersburg, FL
79Daniel MarcellinusOLFR6' 11"275Abia, Nigeria
0Horace LockettDTSR6' 6"355Atlanta, GA
42Artavius JonesDTSO6' 3"325Blountstown, FL
55Noah MercerDTFR6' 5"290Key West, FL
90Mujahid JeffersonDTFR6' 3"280Orlando, FL
91Donteye DrewDTSR6' 2"240Tampa, FL
92Jeffson LafontantDTJR6' 3"295North Miami Beach, FL
93Brad Gurley Jr.DTSR6' 2"300Bowling Green, KY
95RJ Jackson Jr.DTSR6' 3"310Choctaw, OK
97Josh SchellDTSR6' 4"300Mount Pleasant, MI
99Thomas CollinsDTJR6' 1"295Gothenburg, Sweden
15Preston HallLBFR6' 3"220Missouri City, TX
19Rashad HenryLBJR6' 2"220Miami, FL
20Lewis CarterLBSR6' 0"225Tampa, FL
23Jayden BurnettLBFR6' 2"210Sarasota, FL
24Tackett CurtisLBSR6' 2"230Many, LA
32Matthew OcchipintiLBFR6' 3"235Saddle Brook, NJ
33Phil PicciottiLBJR6' 3"230Perkasie, PA
34Jahleel CulbreathLBSR6' 4"222Virginia Beach, VA
36Dylan BennettLBFR5' 11"210West Palm Beach, FL
38Jayden JenningsLBSR6' 4"235Salem, VA
43Cole KozlowskiLBSR6' 2"230Spring Lake, NJ
47Arthur KingdomLBJR6' 4"230Leicestershire, England
1Jayden BellamyDBSR6' 1"190Freehold, NJ
4Braeden MarshallDBSR5' 10"200Lake Mary, FL
5DJ BellDBSR6' 2"185Pensacola, FL
7Antione JacksonDBSR6' 1"185Lauderhill, FL
8Demari HendersonDBSR6' 0"185Sanford, FL
14Kahmel JohnsonDBSO6' 2"200Jacksonville, FL
16Antonio Branch Jr.DBFR6' 3"175Miami, FL
17Jailen DuffieDBJR5' 11"175Waukegan, IL
18Caleb FlaggDBSR5' 10"200Houston, TX
21Ty BartrumDBSR6' 1"205Pomeroy, OH
22Amarion QueenDBFR6' 2"185Stuart, FL
25Rukeem StroudDBFR5' 11"165Tampa, FL
26Elijah KeysDBFR6' 2"180Jacksonville, FL
27Nicholas AntoineDBSR6' 4"205Daytona Beach, FL
28Matt IrwinDBJR5' 11"180Meridian, ID
29Tyce PorcherDBFR6' 1"190West Palm Beach, FL
30Otis HardyDBFR6' 0"180Orlando, FL
49Donnell Johnson IIIDBJR180Orlando, FL
31Noah McGoughPKFR5' 11"175Dallas, TX
97Mason DenaburgPKFR6' 4"225Merritt Island, FL
15Will StonePSR6' 2"195Austin, TX
49Atticus BertramsPSR6' 4"235Sydney, Australia
37Rocklyn KelleyLSFR6' 1"225Denton, TX
44Kyle HicksLSSO6' 3"235Nashville, TN
6Isaiah NixonEDGEJR6' 4"245St. Petersburg, FL
10Sincere EdwardsEDGEJR6' 3"250Orlando, FL
11Ken TalleyEDGESR6' 3"260Philadelphia, PA
12Aymeric KoumbaEDGEJR6' 5"245Bordeaux, France
41Bruno DallEDGEJR6' 7"260Hamburg, Germany
45Quentin HatchEDGESR6' 1"225Orlando, FL
56Patrick RyanEDGEFR6' 4"220Lake Mary, FL
94LA Jessie HarroldEDGEFR6' 5"260Tampa, FL
98Alhassan IddrissuEDGEFR6' 6"250Kumasi, Ghana

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2017 (+13.8, #11) · worst: 2015 (-16.8, #124)
-100+10FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#76
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far3-31-2#51+5.5+0.8+4.7
20255-72-7#76-1.4-3.2+1.8
20244-82-7#59+1.2+1.9-0.7
20236-73-6#49+3.0+1.6+1.4
20229-56-2#35+4.9+2.8+2.1
20219-45-3#55+2.7+1.9+0.8
20206-45-3#17+9.0+12.5-3.5
201910-36-2#15+11.8+10.5+1.3
201812-18-0#8+13.1+9.6+3.5
201713-08-0#11+13.8+11.9+1.8
20166-74-4#70-1.3-2.6+1.3
20150-120-8#124-16.8-11.6-5.3
20149-47-1#50+2.8-0.8+3.6

UCF's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Oct 21, 10:45 AM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →