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Big 12 · 2026

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Head coach Joey McGuire · Galaxy Stadium
6-03-0 in conference
TDC Rank
#12
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
+19.3
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
+11.2
11th in FBS
Defense
+8.0
20th in FBS
Schedule so far
-4.3
73rd toughest
Projected
10.7-1.3
bowl-eligible >99%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

+19.3 now, +23.1 preseason · down 9 spots since preseason
0+10+20FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8#12

Final record odds

10.7-1.3 expected · most likely 11-1 (38%)
8-49%9-325%10-238%11-125%12-0

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Will Hammond
QB · JR · 62nd in FBS
1334yds
6 TD · 5 INT
Rushing
J'Koby Williams
RB · 35th in FBS
538yds
74 car · 5 TD
Receiving
Kenny Johnson
WR · SR · 69th in FBS
418yds
24 rec · 1 TD
Tackles
Austin Romaine
LB · SR · 179th in FBS
41tkl
3 TFL
Sacks
A.J. Holmes Jr.
DL · SR · 41st in FBS
4sacks
4 hurries
Interceptions
John Curry
LB · SR · 8th in FBS
3INT
1 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 5vsAbilene Christian FCSW 33–10 ›+1.5—FS1
2Sep 12@57Oregon StateW 35–24 ›+18.3—CBS
3Sep 18vs30HoustonCONFW 28–26 ›+9.6—FOX
4Sep 26vs125Sam HoustonW 49–14 ›+7.1—TNT
5Oct 3@56ColoradoCONFW 29–7 ›+29.3—Fox
6—Bye
7Oct 17vs62Arizona StateCONFW 53–25 ›+24.1—Fox
8Oct 24@55CincinnatiCONFTexas Tech −11.6 · o/u 59.3—78%FS1
9Oct 31vs25ArizonaCONFTexas Tech −10.6 · o/u 57.1—76%
10Nov 7vs70West VirginiaCONFTexas Tech −23.2 · o/u 70.3—94%
11Nov 14@39Oklahoma StateCONFTexas Tech −7.8 · o/u 64.2—70%
12Nov 21@46BaylorCONFTexas Tech −8.9 · o/u 53.3—72%
13Nov 26vs41TCUCONFTexas Tech −15.7 · o/u 46.7—85%ESPN

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.19152nd-0.05811th
Success rate48.1%27th36.9%27th
Explosiveness1.127117th1.308104th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate48.7%23rd37.5%31st
Rushing success rate50.0%19th32.1%8th
Passing success rate47.4%33rd40.9%74th
Explosive run rate19.0%6th13.1%67th
Explosive pass rate8.4%104th7.2%20th
Line yards / carry3.2160th2.7225th
Opportunity rate44.6%15th29.9%7th
Stuff rate17.9%83rd21.2%29th
Sack rate4.0%42nd5.5%67th
3rd-down conversion43.5%51st37.7%53rd
Red-zone TD rate52.4%104th27.3%4th
Havoc rate16.0%121st15.7%31st
Box score · season totals
Points / game37.816th17.728th
Yards / game422.346th363.878th
Yards / play6.2045th4.9551st
Pass yards / game229.873rd281.8134th
Yards / pass att.7.9050th6.7155th
Completion %67.8%25th62.7%88th
Rush yards / game192.538th82.05th
Yards / carry5.1028th2.8612th
3rd-down conv. %42.3%52nd38.5%82nd
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)1.5097th2.008th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)1.3344th2.8319th
Penalty yards / game48.736th51.391st

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
8.9
55th of 138
YAC per catch
4.9
99th of 138
Deep shots (20+)
16%
39th of 138
Shotgun
99%
8th of 138
No-huddle
69%
63rd of 138
QB pressured
11%
93rd of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
14%
69th of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
4.9
92nd of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws167 throws charted

68% comp8.9 avg. depth4.9 YAC/catch16% 20+ air yds8–6 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 5 throws (3%), 4 caught (80%), 24 yds, 4.8 per throw580% · 24yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 13 throws (8%), 12 caught (92%), 121 yds, 9.3 per throw1392% · 121yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 9 throws (5%), 8 caught (89%), 53 yds, 5.9 per throw989% · 53yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 5 caught (71%), 69 yds, 9.9 per throw771% · 69yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw20% · 0yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 3 caught (60%), 96 yds, 19.2 per throw560% · 96yLeft, 30+ air yards: 1 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yMiddle, Behind air yards: 4 throws (2%), 3 caught (75%), 13 yds, 3.3 per throw475% · 13yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 11 throws (7%), 7 caught (64%), 54 yds, 4.9 per throw1164% · 54yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 14 throws (8%), 9 caught (64%), 96 yds, 6.9 per throw1464% · 96yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 10 throws (6%), 7 caught (70%), 107 yds, 10.7 per throw1070% · 107yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 3 caught (60%), 61 yds, 12.2 per throw560% · 61yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 1 throws (1%), 1 caught (100%), 18 yds, 18.0 per throw1100% · 18yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw20% · 0yRight, Behind air yards: 21 throws (13%), 18 caught (86%), 83 yds, 4.0 per throw2186% · 83yRight, 0–4 air yards: 8 throws (5%), 7 caught (88%), 54 yds, 6.8 per throw888% · 54yRight, 5–9 air yards: 20 throws (12%), 15 caught (75%), 125 yds, 6.3 per throw2075% · 125yRight, 10–14 air yards: 9 throws (5%), 5 caught (56%), 66 yds, 7.3 per throw956% · 66yRight, 15–19 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 2 caught (50%), 38 yds, 9.5 per throw450% · 38yRight, 20–29 air yards: 12 throws (7%), 5 caught (42%), 163 yds, 13.6 per throw1242% · 163yRight, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 2 caught (50%), 70 yds, 17.5 per throw450% · 70y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on239 throws charted

63% comp8.1 avg. depth4.9 YAC/catch11% 20+ air yds12–11 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 17 throws (7%), 12 caught (71%), 74 yds, 4.4 per throw1771% · 74yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 16 throws (7%), 12 caught (75%), 78 yds, 4.9 per throw1675% · 78yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 18 throws (8%), 11 caught (61%), 86 yds, 4.8 per throw1861% · 86yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 3 caught (30%), 46 yds, 4.6 per throw1030% · 46yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 8 throws (3%), 5 caught (63%), 111 yds, 13.9 per throw863% · 111yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 1 caught (33%), 22 yds, 7.3 per throw333% · 22yLeft, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw40% · 0yMiddle, Behind air yards: 7 throws (3%), 6 caught (86%), 9 yds, 1.3 per throw786% · 9yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 16 throws (7%), 11 caught (69%), 99 yds, 6.2 per throw1669% · 99yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 11 throws (5%), 8 caught (73%), 76 yds, 6.9 per throw1173% · 76yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 10 throws (4%), 7 caught (70%), 97 yds, 9.7 per throw1070% · 97yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 4 caught (57%), 105 yds, 15.0 per throw757% · 105yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw20% · 0yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 1 throws (0%), 1 caught (100%), 52 yds, 52.0 per throw1100% · 52yRight, Behind air yards: 19 throws (8%), 16 caught (84%), 52 yds, 2.7 per throw1984% · 52yRight, 0–4 air yards: 25 throws (10%), 21 caught (84%), 135 yds, 5.4 per throw2584% · 135yRight, 5–9 air yards: 26 throws (11%), 19 caught (73%), 142 yds, 5.5 per throw2673% · 142yRight, 10–14 air yards: 18 throws (8%), 10 caught (56%), 135 yds, 7.5 per throw1856% · 135yRight, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 3 caught (43%), 63 yds, 9.0 per throw743% · 63yRight, 20–29 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 3 caught (43%), 98 yds, 14.0 per throw743% · 98yRight, 30+ air yards: 7 throws (3%), 3 caught (43%), 195 yds, 27.9 per throw743% · 195y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction210 carries

Left
21%
7.5 YPC · 55% succ.
Middle
59%
5.1 YPC · 46% succ.
Right
20%
4.8 YPC · 50% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced152 carries

Left
22%
3.7 YPC · 38% succ.
Middle
55%
3.6 YPC · 29% succ.
Right
22%
5.4 YPC · 50% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Joey McGuire

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
4Thomas CastellanosQBSR5' 10"190Waycross, GA
10Lloyd Jones IIIQBSO6' 4"215Hitchcock, TX
12Stephen CannonQBFR6' 2"205Savannah, GA
15Will HammondQBJR6' 2"210Austin, TX
16Holden PhillipsQBSO6' 1"205Lubbock, TX
18Kirk FrancisQBSR6' 2"205Tulsa, OK
0Quinten JoynerRBSR5' 11"220Austin, TX
8Cameron DickeyRBJR5' 10"215Austin, TX
28Ashton RowdenRBFR5' 11"205Texarkana, TX
33Loic TshibanguRBSR6' 0"210Brussels, Belgium
35Michael Henderson IIIRBSO5' 9"185Dallas, TX
1Micah HudsonWRJR6' 0"205Temple, TX
2Kenny JohnsonWRSR6' 1"200York, PA
3Coy EakinWRSR6' 2"205Stephenville, TX
6Jalen JonesWRSR5' 8"180Birmingham, AL
9Donte Lee Jr.WRSR6' 3"190Baltimore, MD
11Malcolm SimmonsWRJR6' 0"180Montgomery, AL
13Chase CampbellWRFR6' 0"200Lubbock, TX
14Bryson JonesWRSO6' 3"195Frisco, TX
17Leyton StoneWRSO6' 3"200Lubbock, TX
19Michael DeverWRSO6' 1"195Lubbock, TX
21Tristian GentryWRSO6' 0"180Stephenville, TX
80Kai PowellWRSR5' 11"185Spring, TX
84Imari JehielWRFR6' 0"190Forney, TX
88Quintaelyn JoynerWRSO6' 0"205Austin, TX
5Matt LudwigTEFR6' 4"255Billings, MT
7Terrance Carter Jr.TESR6' 2"245Killeen, TX
83Jack EsparzaTESR6' 4"245Austin, TX
85Jett CarpenterTESR6' 3"255Medford, OR
89Jason LlewellynTESR6' 5"250Aledo, TX
50Patrick McMathOLSO6' 4"290Katy, TX
51Felix OjoOLFR6' 6"295Mansfield, TX
52Cash ClevelandOLJR6' 2"300Rockwall, TX
53Holton HendrixOLJR6' 4"310Lubbock, TX
54Jordan ChurchOLSR6' 4"320Fort Myers, FL
56Jerald MaysOLFR6' 4"315Pflugerville, TX
61Connor CartyOLSO6' 4"305Prosper, TX
66Jackson HildebrandOLJR6' 2"295San Antonio, TX
68Ren BrownOLSO6' 4"300Stanton, NE
70Jacob PontonOLJR6' 8"315Dripping Springs, TX
71Bryce GilmoreOLFR6' 4"285Prosper, TX
73Danilo GuberinichOLSO6' 5"295Ann Arbor, MI
74Daniel SillOLSR6' 5"310College Station, TX
75Garin MaleyOLSO6' 5"295Omaha, NE
76Jacob CrowOLFR6' 9"310Knoxville, TN
77Elias GillenOLSO6' 6"315Rapid City, SD
78Ellis DavisOLJR6' 7"305Prosper, TX
79Howard SampsonOLSR6' 8"330Houston, TX
1Julien LaventureDLSR6' 0"290Upper Darby, PA
10A.J. Holmes Jr.DLSR6' 3"300Houston, TX
51Jayden CofieldDLSR6' 2"330Austin, TX
90Ayden JohnsonDLFR6' 1"340Sulphur Springs, TX
91Krush JohnsonDLFR6' 2"300Amarillo, TX
92Bryce ButlerDLSR6' 4"320Toronto, CA
93Dylan SingletonDLSO6' 5"300New Iberia, LA
98Mateen IbirogbaDLSR6' 4"300Clarksburg, MD
6John CurryLBSR6' 2"235Lubbock, TX
8Jamond MathisLBSR6' 1"250St. Louis, MO
9Corey Platt Jr.LBSR6' 1"215Little Rock, AR
13Ben RobertsLBSR6' 3"245Haslet, TX
15Austin RomaineLBSR6' 2"240Hillsboro, MO
20Adam TrickLBSR6' 4"250Dayton, OH
31Cord NolanLBFR6' 0"220Bixby, OK
32LaDamion GuytonLBFR6' 4"235Savannah, GA
33Ansel NedoreLBSR6' 3"260Round Rock, TX
34Kaegan AshLBFR6' 0"210Mount Enterprise, TX
35Adam HillLBJR6' 1"230Albany, TX
36Demarcus MarksLBFR6' 3"215Houston, TX
40Wesley SmithLBSR5' 10"225Midland, TX
43Chris LemonsLBSR6' 2"215Prosper, TX
45Brock GolwasLBSO6' 1"240Flower Mound, TX
56Amarie FlemingLBJR6' 2"230Mayo, FL
86Sean RobinsonLBSO6' 5"225Greenbrae, CA
95Christian BruceLBFR6' 3"270Alpharetta, GA
97Charles Anderson Jr.LBJR6' 6"275Houston, TX
99Jojo JohnsonLBSR6' 2"290Salt Lake City, UT
4Davin MartinCBSR6' 2"185Houston, TX
12Tarrion GrantCBJR6' 2"190Sumter, SC
14Brice PollockCBSR6' 0"195Snellville, GA
16Ashton HamptonCBJR6' 0"175Pearland, TX
17Noah LewisCBFR5' 10"180Terrell, TX
18S'Vioarean MartinCBFR6' 2"200Palestine, TX
27Amier BoydCBSR6' 2"185Phoenix, AZ
29Luke HamiltonCBFR5' 11"185Fayetteville, NC
0Mikal Harrison-PilotSJR6' 0"205Temple, TX
3Peyton MorganSJR6' 0"185Round Rock, TX
5Oliver Miles IIISJR6' 2"190El Campo, TX
7Brenden JordanSSR6' 0"205Mansfield, TX
21Miquel Dingle Jr.SSR6' 2"220Charleston, SC
22Marcus Ramon-EdwardsSSR6' 3"225Lubbock, TX
23Maddox QuillerSFR6' 0"205Pflugerville, TX
24Malik EsquerraSJR6' 3"210Killeen, TX
26Aaron BradshawSFR6' 3"190Crowley, TX
28Braylan McDonaldSSO6' 0"190Terrell, TX
28Jordan RogersSSR5' 10"180Bellmead, TX
30Jamarn Grant IISJR6' 2"205Fort Worth, TX
39Jacob HandPKSR6' 1"180Mansfield, TX
48Stone HarringtonPKSR6' 3"210Colleyville, TX
37Ian HersheyPSR5' 11"185Pocatello, ID
49Will KarollPSR6' 4"215Mosman, Australia

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2025 (+17.9, #4) · worst: 2014 (-4.8, #83)
0+10+20FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#4
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far6-03-0#12+19.3+11.2+8.0
202512-28-1#4+17.9+7.6+10.3
20248-56-3#62+0.8+6.8-6.0
20237-65-4#40+4.2+1.7+2.5
20228-55-4#32+5.2+5.7-0.5
20217-63-6#68-0.1+2.7-2.8
20204-63-6#93-4.1+2.2-6.3
20194-82-7#60-0.2+1.8-2.0
20185-73-6#46+3.3+4.8-1.4
20176-73-6#56+1.7+5.5-3.8
20165-73-6#61+0.3+11.4-11.1
20157-64-5#66+0.7+13.4-12.7
20144-82-7#83-4.8+4.2-9.0

Texas Tech's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Oct 21, 10:45 AM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →