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Mountain West · 2026

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors

Head coach Timmy Chang · Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
1-60-4 in conference
TDC Rank
#118
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
-14.5
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
-9.8
122nd in FBS
Defense
-4.7
101st in FBS
Schedule so far
-7.5
93rd toughest
Projected
3.7-8.3
bowl-eligible 3%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

-14.5 now, -9.4 preseason · down 21 spots since preseason
-15-10-50FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8#118

Final record odds

3.7-8.3 expected · most likely 4-8 (37%)
1-1111%2-1031%3-937%4-817%5-76-6

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Micah Alejado
QB · SO · 7th in FBS
1863yds
6 TD · 5 INT
Rushing
DeVon Rice
RB · SO · 156th in FBS
314yds
70 car · 3 TD
Receiving
Kainoa Carvalho
WR · FR · 89th in FBS
384yds
32 rec · 0 TD
Tackles
Jamih Otis
LB · SR · 58th in FBS
51tkl
1 TFL
Sacks
Julian Smith
LB · JR · 200th in FBS
2sacks
0 hurries
Interceptions
Jeremiah Hughes
DB · JR · 28th in FBS
2INT
3 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Aug 29@104StanfordL 27–37 ›-16.8—ACC Network
1Sep 5vs84UNLVCONFL 6–21 ›-23.2—CW
2Sep 12vs117New Mexico StateW 29–19 ›-8.1—MW+
3—Bye
4Sep 26@123WyomingCONFL 10–27 ›-29.5—CW
5Oct 3vs122San José StateCONFL 16–20 ›-23.8—MW+
6Oct 10@62Arizona StateL 12–30 ›-11.7—FS1
7Oct 17vs43New MexicoCONFL 10–21 ›-7.9—FS1
8Oct 24@132Northern IllinoisCONFHawai'i −1.8 · o/u 47.5—55%MW+
9—Bye
10Nov 7@137UTEPCONFHawai'i −7.8 · o/u 48.9—70%
11Nov 14vs69North Dakota StateCONFNorth Dakota State −11.0 · o/u 43.0—23%CW
12Nov 21@106NevadaCONFNevada −7.5 · o/u 44.6—31%
13Nov 28vs138Sacramento StateHawai'i −17.9 · o/u 47.3—88%MW+

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.006120th+0.189111th
Success rate38.8%116th44.6%111th
Explosiveness1.121120th1.18140th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate39.0%119th45.1%111th
Rushing success rate41.9%94th44.9%99th
Passing success rate37.6%113th45.3%114th
Explosive run rate12.9%88th13.5%76th
Explosive pass rate6.7%130th11.0%96th
Line yards / carry2.9896th3.27113th
Opportunity rate41.3%49th42.9%121st
Stuff rate20.0%105th13.9%119th
Sack rate5.5%87th4.7%91st
3rd-down conversion37.0%103rd40.4%83rd
Red-zone TD rate34.8%136th68.2%105th
Havoc rate16.1%122nd12.4%103rd
Box score · season totals
Points / game15.7133rd25.079th
Yards / game345.6104th382.9102nd
Yards / play4.72125th5.90111th
Pass yards / game268.131st202.160th
Yards / pass att.6.00128th7.86114th
Completion %58.1%112th62.2%83rd
Rush yards / game77.4138th180.7111th
Yards / carry3.00135th4.83113th
3rd-down conv. %36.6%95th39.6%91st
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)1.1454th0.86105th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)2.86127th1.7193rd
Penalty yards / game57.073rd67.326th

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
8.2
92nd of 138
YAC per catch
3.9
131st of 138
Deep shots (20+)
10%
129th of 138
Shotgun
98%
38th of 138
No-huddle
43%
87th of 138
QB pressured
14%
57th of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
11%
109th of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
5.3
62nd of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws304 throws charted

57% comp8.2 avg. depth3.9 YAC/catch10% 20+ air yds7–5 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 16 throws (5%), 14 caught (88%), 61 yds, 3.8 per throw1688% · 61yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 34 throws (11%), 18 caught (53%), 104 yds, 3.1 per throw3453% · 104yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 41 throws (13%), 24 caught (59%), 187 yds, 4.6 per throw4159% · 187yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 18 throws (6%), 9 caught (50%), 156 yds, 8.7 per throw1850% · 156yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 13 throws (4%), 3 caught (23%), 66 yds, 5.1 per throw1323% · 66yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw30% · 0yLeft, 30+ air yards: 7 throws (2%), 3 caught (43%), 114 yds, 16.3 per throw743% · 114yMiddle, Behind air yards: 5 throws (2%), 3 caught (60%), 15 yds, 3.0 per throw560% · 15yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 13 throws (4%), 7 caught (54%), 61 yds, 4.7 per throw1354% · 61yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 15 throws (5%), 14 caught (93%), 125 yds, 8.3 per throw1593% · 125yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 16 throws (5%), 8 caught (50%), 127 yds, 7.9 per throw1650% · 127yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 11 throws (4%), 4 caught (36%), 70 yds, 6.4 per throw1136% · 70yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 6 throws (2%), 4 caught (67%), 95 yds, 15.8 per throw667% · 95yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 4 throws (1%), 2 caught (50%), 94 yds, 23.5 per throw450% · 94yRight, Behind air yards: 13 throws (4%), 10 caught (77%), 22 yds, 1.7 per throw1377% · 22yRight, 0–4 air yards: 42 throws (14%), 29 caught (69%), 194 yds, 4.6 per throw4269% · 194yRight, 5–9 air yards: 23 throws (8%), 18 caught (78%), 146 yds, 6.3 per throw2378% · 146yRight, 10–14 air yards: 11 throws (4%), 5 caught (45%), 93 yds, 8.5 per throw1145% · 93yRight, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 1 caught (20%), 22 yds, 4.4 per throw520% · 22yRight, 20–29 air yards: 6 throws (2%), 2 caught (33%), 83 yds, 13.8 per throw633% · 83yRight, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw20% · 0y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on176 throws charted

62% comp9.3 avg. depth5.3 YAC/catch12% 20+ air yds6–4 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 10 throws (6%), 10 caught (100%), 78 yds, 7.8 per throw10100% · 78yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 16 throws (9%), 12 caught (75%), 70 yds, 4.4 per throw1675% · 70yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 14 throws (8%), 8 caught (57%), 75 yds, 5.4 per throw1457% · 75yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 9 throws (5%), 5 caught (56%), 91 yds, 10.1 per throw956% · 91yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 18 yds, 9.0 per throw250% · 18yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 26 yds, 13.0 per throw250% · 26yLeft, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 44 yds, 22.0 per throw250% · 44yMiddle, Behind air yards: 1 throws (1%), 1 caught (100%), -2 yds, -2.0 per throw1100% · -2yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 4 caught (57%), 32 yds, 4.6 per throw757% · 32yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 14 throws (8%), 11 caught (79%), 87 yds, 6.2 per throw1479% · 87yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 12 throws (7%), 7 caught (58%), 113 yds, 9.4 per throw1258% · 113yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 10 throws (6%), 6 caught (60%), 190 yds, 19.0 per throw1060% · 190yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 2 caught (50%), 50 yds, 12.5 per throw450% · 50yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (3%), 3 caught (60%), 131 yds, 26.2 per throw560% · 131yRight, Behind air yards: 12 throws (7%), 8 caught (67%), 52 yds, 4.3 per throw1267% · 52yRight, 0–4 air yards: 21 throws (12%), 13 caught (62%), 97 yds, 4.6 per throw2162% · 97yRight, 5–9 air yards: 13 throws (7%), 8 caught (62%), 82 yds, 6.3 per throw1362% · 82yRight, 10–14 air yards: 9 throws (5%), 6 caught (67%), 98 yds, 10.9 per throw967% · 98yRight, 15–19 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 3 caught (50%), 44 yds, 7.3 per throw650% · 44yRight, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw20% · 0yRight, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (3%), 1 caught (20%), 33 yds, 6.6 per throw520% · 33y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction153 carries

Left
11%
5.3 YPC · 41% succ.
Middle
71%
3.8 YPC · 39% succ.
Right
18%
5.5 YPC · 64% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced238 carries

Left
13%
5.1 YPC · 55% succ.
Middle
70%
5.8 YPC · 51% succ.
Right
17%
5.0 YPC · 44% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Timmy Chang

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
10Bjorn JurgensenQBFR6' 3"200Orlando, FL
12Micah AlejadoQBSO5' 10"180Las Vegas, NV
14Isaac Jaramilla-PheQBSR6' 1"200Pasadena, CA
16Hazyn BotelhoQBFR6' 0"170Kaneohe, HI
0Cam BarfieldRBSR5' 7"190Las Vegas, NV
1DeVon RiceRBSO5' 9"180Las Vegas, NV
26Sitani MikaeleRBSO5' 11"230Waiahole, HI
28TJ Fo'ilefutuRBFR6' 0"240Peoria, AZ
30James Steffany-FiameRBFR5' 8"175Ewa Beach, HI
31Noah BartleyRBSR5' 9"220Waianae, HI
2Audric HarrisWRJR6' 1"190Bellflower, CA
3Carson BrownWRSR6' 2"200Des Moines, IA
4Jarvis HeimuliWRSO6' 3"200Fort Worth, TX
5Pofele AshlockWRSR6' 2"180Euless, TX
6Kainoa CarvalhoWRFR5' 6"165Laie, HI
7Tre' GriffithsWRSO6' 3"205Keller, TX
11Devin AlvesWRSR6' 3"195Melbourne, FL
13Koa EldredgeWRSR6' 0"190Honolulu, HI
17Nick DelgadilloWRJR6' 0"190Paramount, CA
18Blaze KamokuWRSR5' 6"185Kapolei, HI
19Diezel KamokuWRSO5' 9"185Kapolei, HI
22Titan LacadenWRFR5' 6"175Kapolei, HI
80Robert Haynes IVWRFR6' 2"175Houston, TX
83Josiah FetuiWRSO6' 3"185Ewa Beach, HI
84Dillon BoothWRFR5' 9"180Rosamond, CA
86Brandon GaeaWRFR6' 0"190Honolulu, HI
9Devon TauaefaTESR6' 5"230Honolulu, HI
45Micah Kaonohi-KaihenuiTESR5' 11"255Waimanalo, HI
46Matthew BailiffTEJR6' 1"235Kaysville, UT
74Andrew PriceTEFR6' 5"235Boise, ID
81Frank AbreuTEFR6' 4"235Kula, HI
85Oakie Salave'aTESR6' 2"240Leone, American Samoa
88Anthony HickmanTESO6' 3"235Las Vegas, NV
50Tu'i MutiOLSO6' 1"300La'ie, HI
51Eric McFallOLSO6' 4"305Neiafu, Samoa
52Dean BriskiOLSR6' 5"305Pago Pago, American Samoa
53Kawika HallumsOLFR6' 2"295Aiea, HI
54Jordan KernaghanOLFR6' 3"285Ewa Beach, HI
55Jay Tauala-HarrisOLSO6' 3"290Long Beach, CA
56Boogie HendersonOLSO6' 4"310Los Angeles, CA
57Ethan SpencerOLSR6' 2"300Kailua, HI
58Denaris DeRosa Jr.OLSR6' 3"285Redwood City, CA
60Ezekiel SalanoaOLFR5' 11"290Honolulu, HI
62Lautaimi ManumaOLSO6' 3"300Ewa Beach, HI
65Vake HeheaOLJR6' 4"300Melbourne, Australia
73Lipe MoalaOLJR6' 6"345Riverside, CA
74Vainuupo FanuaeaOLFR6' 4"275Nanakuli, HI
77Uluaki TaukiuveaOLFR6' 5"300West Valley City, UT
79Judah KaioOLSR6' 3"305Kaneohe, HI
10Ka'eo AkanaDLSR6' 3"245Honolulu, HI
26Nazaiah CaravalloDLSO6' 2"235Ewa Beach, HI
51Lesterlaisene LagafuainaDLJR6' 4"245Nu'uuli, American Samoa
52Luther McCoyDLSR6' 5"270St. Johns, FL
55Zoram PeteloDLSO6' 4"270Saleaula, Samoa
56Spencer ElliottDLSR6' 3"255Bend, OR
90Ha'aheo Dela CruzDLSO6' 2"260Honolulu, HI
91Josh SagapoluteleDLJR6' 0"255Waimanalo, HI
95Geoffrey Speight Jr.DLSR6' 1"280Mcdonough, GA
96Iosefa LetuliDLSO6' 5"270Oceanside, CA
97Jordan LynchDLSO6' 3"290College Station, TX
98Tonga PaeaDLJR6' 4"315Auckland, New Zealand
99Ozzy PollardDLSO6' 4"300Carmel, IN
7Julian SmithLBJR6' 0"210Bakersfield, CA
8Matteus IoaneLBSO6' 2"225Wahiawa, HI
11Jamih OtisLBSR5' 11"220Las Vegas, NV
12Wynden Ho'ohuliLBSR6' 3"240Kapolei, HI
17Ben HudsonLBSR6' 2"225Miami, FL
18Zaden MariteragiLBFR6' 1"230Kahuku, HI
31Aisiah PaogofieLBFR6' 1"220Waianae, HI
35Junior FiauiLBSO6' 3"215San Jose, CA
43Alika Cavaco-AmoyLBSO6' 0"215Waimanalo, HI
47Kingston CostalesLBFR5' 11"210Waianae, HI
48Kolo KaululaauLBJR6' 0"215Kaneohe, HI
49Tasi TadioLBJR5' 11"225Wahiawa, HI
0Jeremiah HughesDBJR6' 0"180Las Vegas, NV
1Caleb BrownDBSR6' 1"170Anniston, AL
2Kona MooreDBJR6' 0"190Kapolei, HI
3Joenel FigueroaDBSR6' 0"190Lawrence, MA
4Elijah PalmerDBSR5' 8"185Las Vegas, NV
5Jaylon EdmondDBSO5' 10"170Long Beach, CA
6Zion AllenDBSR6' 1"175Stockton, CA
13Elijah GipsonDBSR6' 0"170Los Angeles, CA
19Kela MooreDBJR6' 0"185Kapolei, HI
21Makana MeyerDBJR5' 9"185Waipahu, HI
22Ezekiel RodriguesDBSO6' 0"195Kaneohe, HI
23Kydel StoneDBFR6' 1"185Chicago, IL
24Kodi DeCambraDBJR5' 11"190Honolulu, HI
27Jahren AlturaDBFR5' 10"175Honolulu, HI
28Marquis RichardsonDBFR6' 2"190Chandler, AZ
29Kainoa OntaiDBJR5' 11"180Manteca, CA
30Avin HoustonDBFR6' 3"185San Antonio, TX
34Brayton CorreaDBFR5' 10"185Honolulu, HI
36Jordan FetuDBJR5' 10"175Ewa Beach, HI
16Hudson BorsariPKFR5' 10"175Las Vegas, NV
98Sean Olvera-HarlePKSR6' 0"205San Juan Capistrano, CA
23Bryce MilfordPSO6' 5"190Melbourne, Australia
43Gannon MillerPFR6' 0"190Boise, ID
47Gehrig HeilPFR6' 1"195Phoenix, AZ
33Jack MowreyLSJR6' 3"235Charlotte, NC
45Nick PangLSSR5' 10"220Honolulu, HI

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2025 (-1.8, #77) · worst: 2015 (-14.5, #121)
-15-10-50FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#77
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far1-60-4#118-14.5-9.8-4.7
20259-45-3#77-1.8-0.3-1.4
20245-73-4#110-8.1-6.9-1.2
20235-83-5#126-12.6-6.0-6.6
20223-102-6#126-13.3-6.4-7.0
20216-73-5#94-4.6-0.1-4.5
20205-44-4#82-2.2-0.8-1.4
201910-55-3#77-1.9+4.2-6.1
20188-65-3#101-7.6+1.6-9.3
20173-91-7#117-12.6-5.4-7.1
20167-74-4#108-9.1-3.3-5.9
20153-100-8#121-14.5-8.8-5.8
20144-93-5#111-9.2-6.7-2.6

Hawai'i's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Oct 21, 10:17 PM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →