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SEC · 2026

Mississippi State Bulldogs

Head coach Jeff Lebby · Davis Wade Stadium
4-22-2 in conference
TDC Rank
#44
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
+6.9
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
+6.7
24th in FBS
Defense
+0.2
64th in FBS
Schedule so far
+7.6
6th toughest
Projected
6.7-5.3
bowl-eligible 89%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

+6.9 now, -0.7 preseason · up 21 spots since preseason
0+5+10FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8#44

Final record odds

6.7-5.3 expected · most likely 7-5 (36%)
4-810%5-732%6-636%7-517%8-49-3

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
Kamario Taylor
QB · SO · 43rd in FBS
1450yds
17 TD · 4 INT
Rushing
Fluff Bothwell
RB · JR · 85th in FBS
403yds
74 car · 3 TD
Receiving
Anthony Evans III
WR · SR · 13th in FBS
614yds
47 rec · 5 TD
Tackles
Tyler Lockhart
LB · SO · 232nd in FBS
38tkl
2.5 TFL
Sacks
Tyler Lockhart
LB · SO · 200th in FBS
2sacks
2 hurries
Interceptions
Jalen Smith
LB · JR · 109th in FBS
1INT
0 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 5vs136UL MonroeW 62–13 ›+3.2—ESPNU
2Sep 12@66MinnesotaW 38–13 ›+30.0—CBS
3Sep 19@33South CarolinaCONFW 41–34 ›+20.6—SEC Network
4Sep 26vs21MissouriCONFW 31–24 ›+16.8—SEC Network
5Oct 3vs7AlabamaCONFL 23–56 ›-8.0—ABC
6—Bye
7Oct 17@6LSUCONFL 0–31 ›+0.4—ESPN
8Oct 24vs23OklahomaCONFOklahoma −2.7 · o/u 52.9—43%SEC Network
9Oct 31@9TexasCONFTexas −18.4 · o/u 55.4—11%
10Nov 7vs59VanderbiltCONFMississippi State −7.7 · o/u 58.5—70%
11Nov 14vs19AuburnCONFAuburn −4.3 · o/u 59.4—39%
12Nov 21vsTennessee Tech FCSMississippi State −24.8 · o/u 64.2—95%SECN+
13Nov 27@11Ole MissCONFOle Miss −17.4 · o/u 65.3—12%ABC

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.19846th+0.13795th
Success rate47.6%32nd46.3%123rd
Explosiveness1.24270th1.09613th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate48.5%26th46.6%122nd
Rushing success rate47.8%36th45.4%107th
Passing success rate49.2%24th47.3%125th
Explosive run rate14.3%64th9.2%19th
Explosive pass rate13.3%29th10.8%91st
Line yards / carry3.0981st3.1489th
Opportunity rate40.4%62nd36.9%60th
Stuff rate19.9%103rd15.6%99th
Sack rate7.3%107th5.8%59th
3rd-down conversion50.8%17th44.4%111th
Red-zone TD rate55.0%96th55.0%52nd
Havoc rate13.8%86th14.9%47th
Box score · season totals
Points / game32.548th28.5111th
Yards / game454.322nd379.598th
Yards / play6.1846th5.3070th
Pass yards / game277.822nd264.8127th
Yards / pass att.8.5030th7.2982nd
Completion %65.1%52nd66.1%118th
Rush yards / game176.550th114.735th
Yards / carry4.6058th3.4937th
3rd-down conv. %48.0%23rd40.0%93rd
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)1.3380th0.83116th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)2.83120th2.5033rd
Penalty yards / game70.7119th75.58th

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
8.8
57th of 138
YAC per catch
6.1
37th of 138
Deep shots (20+)
14%
80th of 138
Shotgun
99%
10th of 138
No-huddle
87%
28th of 138
QB pressured
13%
74th of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
14%
82nd of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
5.6
38th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws188 throws charted

65% comp8.8 avg. depth6.1 YAC/catch14% 20+ air yds18–5 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 9 throws (5%), 8 caught (89%), 87 yds, 9.7 per throw989% · 87yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 17 throws (9%), 10 caught (59%), 96 yds, 5.6 per throw1759% · 96yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 15 throws (8%), 9 caught (60%), 115 yds, 7.7 per throw1560% · 115yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 11 yds, 5.5 per throw250% · 11yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 16 yds, 8.0 per throw250% · 16yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 3 caught (50%), 70 yds, 11.7 per throw650% · 70yLeft, 30+ air yards: 6 throws (3%), 1 caught (17%), 43 yds, 7.2 per throw617% · 43yMiddle, Behind air yards: 4 throws (2%), 4 caught (100%), 8 yds, 2.0 per throw4100% · 8yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 4 caught (80%), 37 yds, 7.4 per throw580% · 37yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 9 throws (5%), 4 caught (44%), 60 yds, 6.7 per throw944% · 60yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 11 throws (6%), 10 caught (91%), 146 yds, 13.3 per throw1191% · 146yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 2 caught (40%), 42 yds, 8.4 per throw540% · 42yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 1 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (2%), 2 caught (67%), 84 yds, 28.0 per throw367% · 84yRight, Behind air yards: 17 throws (9%), 13 caught (76%), 86 yds, 5.1 per throw1776% · 86yRight, 0–4 air yards: 30 throws (16%), 21 caught (70%), 158 yds, 5.3 per throw3070% · 158yRight, 5–9 air yards: 18 throws (10%), 16 caught (89%), 155 yds, 8.6 per throw1889% · 155yRight, 10–14 air yards: 15 throws (8%), 10 caught (67%), 172 yds, 11.5 per throw1567% · 172yRight, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 2 caught (40%), 62 yds, 12.4 per throw540% · 62yRight, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 2 caught (100%), 49 yds, 24.5 per throw2100% · 49yRight, 30+ air yards: 6 throws (3%), 2 caught (33%), 73 yds, 12.2 per throw633% · 73y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on214 throws charted

66% comp7.7 avg. depth5.6 YAC/catch12% 20+ air yds13–2 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 18 throws (8%), 15 caught (83%), 82 yds, 4.6 per throw1883% · 82yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 25 throws (12%), 17 caught (68%), 147 yds, 5.9 per throw2568% · 147yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 12 throws (6%), 7 caught (58%), 61 yds, 5.1 per throw1258% · 61yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 12 throws (6%), 6 caught (50%), 111 yds, 9.3 per throw1250% · 111yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 3 caught (60%), 57 yds, 11.4 per throw560% · 57yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 2 caught (40%), 54 yds, 10.8 per throw540% · 54yLeft, 30+ air yards: 3 throws (1%), 2 caught (67%), 84 yds, 28.0 per throw367% · 84yMiddle, Behind air yards: 4 throws (2%), 4 caught (100%), 55 yds, 13.8 per throw4100% · 55yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 3 caught (43%), 23 yds, 3.3 per throw743% · 23yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 16 throws (7%), 15 caught (94%), 143 yds, 8.9 per throw1694% · 143yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 1 caught (33%), 21 yds, 7.0 per throw333% · 21yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 1 caught (25%), 20 yds, 5.0 per throw425% · 20yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 37 yds, 18.5 per throw250% · 37yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 6 throws (3%), 1 caught (17%), 44 yds, 7.3 per throw617% · 44yRight, Behind air yards: 20 throws (9%), 18 caught (90%), 152 yds, 7.6 per throw2090% · 152yRight, 0–4 air yards: 25 throws (12%), 17 caught (68%), 110 yds, 4.4 per throw2568% · 110yRight, 5–9 air yards: 24 throws (11%), 19 caught (79%), 172 yds, 7.2 per throw2479% · 172yRight, 10–14 air yards: 10 throws (5%), 5 caught (50%), 65 yds, 6.5 per throw1050% · 65yRight, 15–19 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 2 caught (50%), 38 yds, 9.5 per throw450% · 38yRight, 20–29 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 2 caught (29%), 53 yds, 7.6 per throw729% · 53yRight, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 39 yds, 19.5 per throw250% · 39y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction206 carries

Left
15%
6.7 YPC · 57% succ.
Middle
72%
5.6 YPC · 46% succ.
Right
13%
4.1 YPC · 41% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced177 carries

Left
20%
4.6 YPC · 37% succ.
Middle
55%
3.4 YPC · 37% succ.
Right
25%
6.0 YPC · 55% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Jeff Lebby

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
1Kamario TaylorQBSO6' 4"230Macon, MS
8Jaden RashadaQBJR6' 4"195Pittsburg, CA
14Brodie McWhorterQBFR6' 2"220Kingston, GA
15Parker PuckettQBFR6' 0"180Madison, MS
17AJ SwannQBSR6' 2"220Canton, GA
5Xavier GaytenRBJR6' 0"205Brookhaven, MS
21J.J. HillRBFR6' 0"220Tupelo, MS
24Fluff BothwellRBJR5' 10"230Oneonta, AL
25Cooper CrosbyRBFR6' 0"205Gulfport, MS
0Gracen HarrisWRFR5' 11"175Ennis, TX
2Marquis JohnsonWRSR5' 11"190Dickinson, TX
3Anthony Evans IIIWRSR5' 11"190Converse, TX
7Zion RaginsWRSO5' 8"170Macon, GA
9Camden CapehartWRFR5' 8"180Winnsboro, TX
10Bull MitchellWRFR5' 11"210Fort Valley, GA
12Matt MayfieldWRJR6' 2"200Sunset, LA
13Sanfrisco MageeWRSO6' 2"200Mccomb, MS
16Jayden CrationWRFR6' 3"200Canton, MS
19Junior HendersonWRFR6' 4"205Carthage, TX
22Jayytee TaylorWRFR6' 0"195Macon, MS
80Fisher SouthallWRFR6' 2"185Fairhope, AL
81Zion CrumptonWRFR6' 1"165Montgomery, AL
89Jessie Primer IVWRSO6' 0"175Canton, MS
4Zayion CottonTEFR6' 5"230Grenada, MS
84Adam LandTEFR6' 3"230Panama City, FL
85Luke HutchinsonTEFR6' 3"235Nashville, TN
88Joeseph SkipworthTEFR6' 5"225Pace, FL
50LJ PrudhommeOLFR6' 3"330Shreveport, LA
53Dylan SteenOLFR6' 5"315Doral, FL
54Blake SteenOLSR6' 6"340Miami, FL
55Jakheem Shumpert-PerkinsOLJR6' 5"340Plantersville, MS
56Wesley DavisOLSR6' 4"300Collierville, TN
58Miles McVayOLJR6' 6"335East St. Louis, IL
59Tyler MillerOLFR6' 6"335Laurel, MS
60Matthew LefeauOLJR6' 5"350Tacoma, WA
62Jamari FreemanOLSR6' 4"310Fairburn, GA
63Mario NashOLFR6' 4"305De Kalb, MS
65Spencer DowlandOLFR6' 6"300Athens, AL
66Ja'Elyne MatthewsOLFR6' 6"325Toms River, NJ
71Saquon MilesOLJR6' 5"320Greenville, AL
72Canon BooneOLSR6' 4"325Kemah, TX
73Leon Noil Jr.OLFR6' 5"290New Orleans, LA
74Kison ShepardOLJR6' 7"350Memphis, TN
75Isaiah DentOLSO6' 6"330Fulton, MS
76Jayden RossOLFR6' 6"320Ocean Springs, MS
77TJ LockhartOLSO6' 5"350Kilmichael, MS
78DJ ChesterOLJR6' 6"315Conyers, GA
9Jaray BledsoeDLSR6' 4"315Marlin, TX
14Dealyn EvansDLSO6' 5"310Longview, TX
19Micah NickersonDLFR6' 5"260Magnolia, MS
33Douglas Adams IIIDLJR6' 3"240San Francisco, CA
35Kalvin DinkinsDLSR6' 2"320Lake, MS
40Gus CordovaDLSO6' 4"270Austin, TX
42DJ ReedDLJR6' 4"295Columbus, GA
55Colin CoatesDLJR6' 2"320Baltimore, MD
88Tico CrittendonDLFR6' 4"310Lithonia, GA
91Lorenz CammonDLJR6' 4"260Upland, CA
92Kaleb MorrisDLFR6' 4"285Mobile, AL
93Eddie Kelly Jr.DLSR6' 5"288Orlando, FL
97Jayson JenkinsDLSR6' 6"280Bordentown, NJ
99Jamarcus MoyeDLSR6' 5"330Phenix City, AL
49Shawn GeeDESO6' 4"280Birmingham, AL
0Fatt ForrestLBJR6' 2"235Kilmichael, MS
7Zakari TillmanLBSR6' 2"235Florence, MS
10Jalen SmithLBJR6' 2"230Grayson, GA
11Tyler LockhartLBSO6' 2"225Kilmichael, MS
12Ja'Bryis StewartLBSR6' 1"215Crystal Springs, MS
13LaKendrick JamesLBJR6' 2"250Shelby, MS
16Derion GulletteLBJR6' 3"240Marlin, TX
32AJ RiceLBFR6' 1"240Crawford, MS
44Gav HolmanLBFR6' 1"245Uniondale, NY
45James Heard Jr.LBJR6' 2"230Camden, NJ
48Chris AddisonLBFR6' 3"250Winnsboro, LA
47Sean PleasantDBFR6' 2"170Austin, TX
1Kelley JonesCBSR6' 4"205Clarksdale, MS
8Kaylib SingletonCBSO6' 1"190Jacksonville, FL
17Kyle JohnsonCBFR5' 11"185Cottonport, LA
20Jett JeffersonCBJR6' 1"200Tylertown, MS
24Quentin TaylorCBSO6' 0"205Apopka, FL
26Jamroc GrimsleyCBSO6' 2"200Tampa, FL
30Camron BrownCBFR6' 1"180Valdosta, GA
36Terrell Johnson Jr.CBFR6' 2"195Lexington, MS
37Dre OteyCBFR6' 2"185Murfreesboro, TN
38Jaylen AntoineCBFR5' 11"180Bay St. Louis, MS
2Isaac SmithSSR6' 0"220Fulton, MS
3Kendel DolbySSR5' 11"195Springfield, OH
5Jardin GilbertSSR6' 1"195White Castle, LA
18Sekou Smith Jr.SFR6' 0"180Miami, FL
21Dre RileySJR6' 1"185Charleston, MS
25Kolby BarrettSFR6' 2"210Chattanooga, TN
28Tanner JohnsonSSR6' 0"195Kyle, TX
29Boogie JohnsonSSO6' 2"200Hooks, TX
31Terrance LoveSJR6' 2"210Atlanta, GA
34Vic SuttonSJR6' 3"215Madison, MS
48Hayden ChambersPKFR6' 1"205Fort Payne, AL
80Kyle FerriePKSR6' 1"205Searcy, AR
83Oisin FlynnPKFR6' 3"200Dublin, Ireland
8Ethan PulliamPJR6' 1"190Starkville, MS
39Kallen CosperLSFR6' 4"215Kingwood, TX
46Kyle RushingLSFR6' 1"200Mccomb, MS

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2014 (+12.3, #12) · worst: 2024 (-4.2, #92)
-50+5+10+15FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#71
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far4-22-2#44+6.9+6.7+0.2
20255-81-7#71-0.1+3.5-3.6
20242-100-8#92-4.2+0.5-4.7
20235-71-7#77-1.9-3.7+1.8
20229-44-4#18+8.2+4.5+3.7
20217-64-4#58+2.4+0.5+1.9
20204-73-7#75-0.8-3.0+2.2
20196-73-5#44+3.1+1.3+1.8
20188-54-4#10+11.9-1.3+13.3
20179-44-4#20+9.3+2.8+6.5
20166-73-5#56+1.4+3.7-2.2
20159-44-4#10+11.7+6.9+4.8
201410-36-2#12+12.3+6.6+5.7

Mississippi State's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Oct 21, 10:45 AM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →