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Big 12 · 2026

Cincinnati Bearcats

Head coach Scott Satterfield · Nippert Stadium
4-21-2 in conference
TDC Rank
#55
of 138 FBS teams
Rating
+3.8
pts vs avg FBS team
Offense
+3.2
49th in FBS
Defense
+0.6
63rd in FBS
Schedule so far
-3.7
69th toughest
Projected
5.7-6.3
bowl-eligible 53%

Season Outlook

From the TDC Rating, updated after every game

Rating by week

+3.8 now, +2.9 preseason · down 6 spots since preseason
0+5FBS avgPreWk 1Wk 2Wk 3Wk 4Wk 5Wk 6Wk 7Wk 8#55

Final record odds

5.7-6.3 expected · most likely 5-7 (34%)
13%4-834%5-732%6-616%7-58-49-3

Team Leaders

National leaderboards →

Passing
JC French IV
QB · SR · 58th in FBS
1338yds
9 TD · 0 INT
Rushing
Cole Tabb
RB · JR · 60th in FBS
448yds
49 car · 8 TD
Receiving
JV Gibson
WR · SR · 120th in FBS
342yds
25 rec · 4 TD
Tackles
Jonathan Thompson
LB · SR · 51st in FBS
52tkl
5.5 TFL
Sacks
Josh Hough
DL · SR · 95th in FBS
3sacks
2 hurries
Interceptions
MJ Cannon
S · SR · 28th in FBS
2INT
3 PD

Schedule

Game score = the rating that one result implies, after adjusting for opponent and venue

WkDateOpponentResult / TDC lineGame scoreWin chanceTV
1Sep 5vs85Boston CollegeW 34–15 ›+10.6—FOX
2Sep 12vsWestern Carolina FCSW 62–10 ›+11.2—ESPN+
3Sep 19vs96Miami (OH)W 35–31 ›-8.2—ESPN+
4Sep 26vs37Kansas StateCONFW 31–26 ›+9.7—ESPN2
5Oct 3@25ArizonaCONFL 7–34 ›-8.8—Fox
6—Bye
7Oct 17@70West VirginiaCONFL 42–45 ›+0.7—TNT
8Oct 24vs12Texas TechCONFTexas Tech −11.6 · o/u 59.3—22%FS1
9Oct 31vs8UtahCONFUtah −14.7 · o/u 59.3—16%
10Nov 7@30HoustonCONFHouston −11.3 · o/u 58.9—23%
11Nov 14@45Iowa StateCONFIowa State −6.8 · o/u 55.5—33%
12Nov 21vs56ColoradoCONFCincinnati −4.1 · o/u 50.2—61%
13Nov 28@14BYUCONFBYU −17.0 · o/u 53.3—13%

Team Stats

Hover an advanced stat for what it means. Box-score totals include FCS games and aren't opponent-adjusted

StatOffenseFBS rankDefense (allowed)FBS rank
EPA · per play, garbage time excluded (CollegeFootballData.com)
EPA / play+0.3396th+0.208116th
Success rate47.2%34th45.3%119th
Explosiveness1.39811th1.25580th
Play-by-play advanced · garbage time excluded (computed from every play)
Success rate47.1%38th45.0%108th
Rushing success rate44.8%67th45.6%109th
Passing success rate50.0%19th44.6%109th
Explosive run rate19.3%5th16.0%116th
Explosive pass rate9.5%86th12.8%124th
Line yards / carry3.4524th3.2096th
Opportunity rate45.3%7th37.3%64th
Stuff rate16.7%69th16.0%93rd
Sack rate5.8%94th4.4%101st
3rd-down conversion48.5%25th47.2%127th
Red-zone TD rate90.0%1st58.3%65th
Havoc rate8.9%8th11.3%126th
Box score · season totals
Points / game35.235th26.897th
Yards / game460.019th434.3128th
Yards / play6.8110th5.96115th
Pass yards / game228.874th294.0136th
Yards / pass att.8.5030th8.02120th
Completion %72.0%6th63.2%91st
Rush yards / game231.211th140.365th
Yards / carry5.908th4.1577th
3rd-down conv. %49.4%18th45.7%126th
Turnovers / game (lost · forced)0.332nd1.1766th
Sacks / game (allowed · made)1.6756th2.3343rd
Penalty yards / game63.593rd48.3103rd

Charting

Where the ball goes, read from the play-by-play: air yards, yards after the catch, run direction, pressure and tempo. Ranks run highest to lowest

Avg. depth of throw
7.2
123rd of 138
YAC per catch
6.6
20th of 138
Deep shots (20+)
11%
118th of 138
Shotgun
97%
53rd of 138
No-huddle
69%
62nd of 138
QB pressured
11%
98th of 138 (1st = most)
Defense: pressure rate
12%
95th of 138
Defense: YAC allowed
6.4
14th of 138 (1st = most)

Offense: where it throws159 throws charted

72% comp7.2 avg. depth6.6 YAC/catch11% 20+ air yds9–0 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 19 throws (12%), 14 caught (74%), 64 yds, 3.4 per throw1974% · 64yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 12 throws (8%), 8 caught (67%), 80 yds, 6.7 per throw1267% · 80yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 12 throws (8%), 12 caught (100%), 91 yds, 7.6 per throw12100% · 91yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 8 throws (5%), 2 caught (25%), 24 yds, 3.0 per throw825% · 24yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 3 caught (60%), 114 yds, 22.8 per throw560% · 114yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 4 throws (3%), 1 caught (25%), 24 yds, 6.0 per throw425% · 24yLeft, 30+ air yards: 5 throws (3%), 3 caught (60%), 147 yds, 29.4 per throw560% · 147yMiddle, Behind air yards: 5 throws (3%), 5 caught (100%), 30 yds, 6.0 per throw5100% · 30yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 7 throws (4%), 5 caught (71%), 52 yds, 7.4 per throw771% · 52yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 10 throws (6%), 8 caught (80%), 75 yds, 7.5 per throw1080% · 75yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 5 throws (3%), 5 caught (100%), 110 yds, 22.0 per throw5100% · 110yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 4 throws (3%), 4 caught (100%), 125 yds, 31.3 per throw4100% · 125yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 1 throws (1%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw10% · 0yMiddle, 30+ air yards: 1 throws (1%), 1 caught (100%), 56 yds, 56.0 per throw1100% · 56yRight, Behind air yards: 12 throws (8%), 11 caught (92%), 58 yds, 4.8 per throw1292% · 58yRight, 0–4 air yards: 22 throws (14%), 18 caught (82%), 147 yds, 6.7 per throw2282% · 147yRight, 5–9 air yards: 12 throws (8%), 10 caught (83%), 85 yds, 7.1 per throw1283% · 85yRight, 10–14 air yards: 8 throws (5%), 2 caught (25%), 20 yds, 2.5 per throw825% · 20yRight, 15–19 air yards: 1 throws (1%), 1 caught (100%), 17 yds, 17.0 per throw1100% · 17yRight, 20–29 air yards: 4 throws (3%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw40% · 0yRight, 30+ air yards: 2 throws (1%), 1 caught (50%), 39 yds, 19.5 per throw250% · 39y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Defense: where it's thrown on212 throws charted

63% comp8.6 avg. depth6.4 YAC/catch13% 20+ air yds8–4 TD–INT
101020203030LOSLeft, Behind air yards: 10 throws (5%), 9 caught (90%), 112 yds, 11.2 per throw1090% · 112yLeft, 0–4 air yards: 28 throws (13%), 24 caught (86%), 171 yds, 6.1 per throw2886% · 171yLeft, 5–9 air yards: 14 throws (7%), 10 caught (71%), 91 yds, 6.5 per throw1471% · 91yLeft, 10–14 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 2 caught (40%), 27 yds, 5.4 per throw540% · 27yLeft, 15–19 air yards: 10 throws (5%), 3 caught (30%), 57 yds, 5.7 per throw1030% · 57yLeft, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 0 caught (0%), 0 yds, 0.0 per throw50% · 0yLeft, 30+ air yards: 6 throws (3%), 4 caught (67%), 164 yds, 27.3 per throw667% · 164yMiddle, Behind air yards: 4 throws (2%), 3 caught (75%), 3 yds, 0.8 per throw475% · 3yMiddle, 0–4 air yards: 12 throws (6%), 8 caught (67%), 68 yds, 5.7 per throw1267% · 68yMiddle, 5–9 air yards: 15 throws (7%), 10 caught (67%), 114 yds, 7.6 per throw1567% · 114yMiddle, 10–14 air yards: 4 throws (2%), 4 caught (100%), 92 yds, 23.0 per throw4100% · 92yMiddle, 15–19 air yards: 3 throws (1%), 2 caught (67%), 50 yds, 16.7 per throw367% · 50yMiddle, 20–29 air yards: 5 throws (2%), 4 caught (80%), 123 yds, 24.6 per throw580% · 123yMiddle, 30+ air yards: noneRight, Behind air yards: 17 throws (8%), 15 caught (88%), 93 yds, 5.5 per throw1788% · 93yRight, 0–4 air yards: 21 throws (10%), 10 caught (48%), 113 yds, 5.4 per throw2148% · 113yRight, 5–9 air yards: 19 throws (9%), 13 caught (68%), 125 yds, 6.6 per throw1968% · 125yRight, 10–14 air yards: 14 throws (7%), 5 caught (36%), 102 yds, 7.3 per throw1436% · 102yRight, 15–19 air yards: 7 throws (3%), 5 caught (71%), 87 yds, 12.4 per throw771% · 87yRight, 20–29 air yards: 6 throws (3%), 2 caught (33%), 61 yds, 10.2 per throw633% · 61yRight, 30+ air yards: 7 throws (3%), 2 caught (29%), 68 yds, 9.7 per throw729% · 68y
fewer more throws
Direction and air yards come from the play-by-play (left / middle / right thirds of the field), so each glow sits in its zone rather than on an exact spot. Hover a zone for detail.

Offense: run direction215 carries

Left
22%
8.4 YPC · 68% succ.
Middle
57%
5.4 YPC · 46% succ.
Right
21%
8.6 YPC · 64% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Defense: runs faced184 carries

Left
17%
6.5 YPC · 52% succ.
Middle
69%
3.8 YPC · 35% succ.
Right
14%
5.8 YPC · 46% succ.
Share of carries by direction, as the play-by-play calls it. Success: 5+ yards on 1st/2nd down, 3+ on 3rd/4th, or a touchdown. QB scrambles excluded.

Pressure = the QB was hurried or sacked, as the play-by-play records it (it misses some, so compare teams rather than reading it as an exact rate). Every snap counts, including garbage time and FCS games.

Roster

100 players · Head coach Scott Satterfield

100 players
#PlayerPos▲ClassHtWtHometown
4JC French IVQBSR6' 1"205Roswell, GA
5Samaj JonesQBJR5' 11"217Philadelphia, PA
10Liam O'BrienQBSR6' 0"210Boulder, CO
12Brooks GoodmanQBFR6' 2"212Atlanta, GA
15Will KocherQBSR6' 2"205Kings Mills, OH
22JJ MillerQBJR6' 0"185Amelia, OH
3Cole TabbRBJR5' 8"200Fort Walton Beach, FL
6Gi'Bran PayneRBSR5' 10"208Cincinnati, OH
7Zylan PerryRBSR5' 11"210Franklin, LA
13Zion JohnsonRBSO5' 8"192Covington, GA
25James LewisRBJR6' 0"200Bloomfield, IN
26Jayzon ThompsonRBFR5' 11"195Knoxville, TN
0Isaiah JohnsonWRJR5' 11"184Fort Walton Beach, FL
2Larenzo FennerWRSR6' 2"183Independence, MO
9Malachi HenryWRSR6' 0"205Van Buren, AR
11JV GibsonWRSR6' 2"208Opelousas, LA
14Elijah JonesWRJR5' 11"195Norristown, PA
16Flynn SchieleWRSR6' 4"210West Linn, OR
17H'eij JacksonWRFR6' 4"206New Orleans, LA
18Giyahni KontosisWRSO6' 1"205Beltsville, MD
19Dadrien WallerWRFR6' 3"205Guntersville, AL
20Joshua SmithWRFR6' 5"205Columbus, OH
27Taizaun BurnsWRSO5' 10"175Columbus, OH
37Ryan TalebWRJR5' 7"175Warner Robins, GA
39Christian MoultonWRSO5' 10"179Powell, OH
89Pierce AyersWRSO5' 10"185Alexandria, VA
82Ka'Maurri SmithTESO6' 5"252Dayton, OH
84Gavin GregoryTEFR6' 7"255Alliance, OH
85Lyviel WatersTEJR6' 2"245Cincinnati, OH
86Kellen DavisTEJR6' 3"248Middletown, OH
87Gavin GroverTEJR6' 6"255Lewis Center, OH
50Evan TengesdahlOLSR6' 3"325Dayton, OH
52Austin HoaneOLFR6' 5"295Cookeville, TN
55Solomon MathisOLFR6' 5"275Hephzibah, GA
63Zac ClarkeOLJR6' 6"312Plainfield, IL
66Xavier LozowickiOLSR6' 5"320Ridley Park, PA
67Luke GroverOLFR6' 5"308Lewis Center, OH
69JP SchrieberOLJR6' 2"305Berwyn, PA
70Cray PaichOLSO6' 5"315Northbrook, IL
71Judea MilonOLSR6' 4"300Killeen, TX
72Nolan LatulippeOLSR6' 8"310Aylmer, Canada
73Aiden PastorizaOLJR6' 6"315Jackson, MI
74Joe CottonOLSR6' 6"320Sioux Falls, SD
75Marcus McGregorOLSO6' 3"312West Des Moines, IA
76Zach TaylorOLSO6' 3"315Kingsland, GA
77Taran TyoOLSR6' 3"325Greenville, OH
78Grant EdgingtonOLSR6' 4"307Madeira, OH
79Luke CollinsOLFR6' 5"305Gahanna, OH
4Marquaze ParkerDLJR6' 3"270West Memphis, AR
11Chidera OtutuDLJR6' 1"300Pflugerville, TX
26Cam RoetherfordDLSR6' 3"280Detroit, MI
88CD McFeeDLSO6' 4"312Elkhart, IN
90Darrius SimmonsDLFR6' 3"300Cairo, GA
92Elijah GunnDLSR6' 0"307LaGrange, GA
94Juan BatesDLFR6' 3"290Mason, OH
95Josh HoughDLSR6' 2"335Beaver Falls, PA
96Nathan NunnDLJR6' 2"282Medina, OH
97Kamron NealDLSO6' 2"268Fort Myers, FL
99Jonathan RuloDLFR6' 1"320Belleville, IL
3Antwan Peek Jr.LBSR6' 1"223Cincinnati, OH
5Marqavious SaboorLBJR5' 11"190Decatur, GA
12Filip MaciorowskiLBSR6' 3"235Carol Stream, IL
15Jamari JohnsonLBSO5' 10"175Birmingham, AL
22Jonathan ThompsonLBSR6' 2"228Columbus, OH
31Simeon ColemanLBJR5' 11"225Seat Pleasant, MD
33George LeiboldLBJR6' 1"220Sarasota, FL
35Drew RobinsonLBJR6' 2"195Clarksville, OH
44Montay WeedonLBJR6' 0"217Silver Spring, MD
45Jaxon NewtonLBFR6' 3"210Anniston, AL
52Ronan CasanovaLBSR5' 10"225Middletown, OH
0Jacob FinleyCBSR6' 0"190Birmingham, AL
6Zay JohnsonCBJR6' 2"185Clinton, SC
14KK MeierCBSR6' 0"205Lubbock, TX
21Jamarion McKinneyCBFR6' 2"195Greenville, SC
25Daniel JamesCBJR5' 10"183Powder Springs, GA
29Kameron HurstCBFR6' 0"166St. Louis, MO
2MJ CannonSSR6' 3"213Evanston, IL
7Ty GoodwillSJR6' 3"195Prichard, AL
18Jasper BeelerSSR6' 1"194Farmington, MI
19CJ JonesSSO5' 9"195Chicago, IL
20CJ CriteSSO6' 1"207Lincolnton, GA
27Markell TaylorSFR5' 11"210Dallas, GA
30D'Angelo HutchinsonSSR6' 3"200St. Petersburg, FL
32Landen SchaeferSSO6' 0"185Cincinnati, OH
46Xavier StarksSFR5' 11"205Birmingham, AL
93Max LemastersPKSR5' 6"175Cincinnati, OH
99Stephen RusnakPKSR6' 0"185Clarkston, MI
31Max FletcherPSR6' 6"190Melbourne, Australia
35Dino BeslagicPSR6' 4"203Santa Clara, CA
41Kenny BakerLSFR6' 0"218Cincinnati, OH
48Eli SteinLSSR6' 3"225Cambridge, WI
10Patrick BauerEDGESR6' 3"235Mount Prospect, IL
17Brian Simms IIIEDGESR6' 3"240Baltimore, MD
24Terrell HolcombEDGESO6' 1"230Gahanna, OH
34Myles HarrisonEDGESO6' 2"235Pickerington, OH
54Thomas JohnsonEDGESR6' 3"255Lawndale, CA
60Lance DawsonEDGEFR6' 4"258Avon, OH
82James EarlyEDGESO6' 3"257Fort Wayne, IN
91Drew LoganEDGESR6' 4"270North Canton, OH
93Keegan HornEDGEFR6' 3"235Hueytown, AL

Program History

Final TDC rating, rank and record for every season since 2014

Final rating by season

Best: 2021 (+14.5, #5) · worst: 2017 (-10.5, #112)
-100+10FBS avg201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025#58
SeasonRecordConfRankRatingOffDef
2026 so far4-21-2#55+3.8+3.2+0.6
20257-65-4#58+2.0+1.8+0.1
20245-73-6#70+0.1-1.4+1.5
20233-91-8#93-4.9-2.9-2.0
20229-46-2#29+5.4+0.2+5.2
202113-18-0#5+14.5+6.0+8.5
20209-16-0#6+14.1+4.2+9.8
201911-37-1#26+8.1-0.2+8.2
201811-26-2#31+6.0-1.2+7.2
20174-82-6#112-10.5-6.9-3.6
20164-81-7#101-7.7-7.6-0.1
20157-64-4#65+0.7+4.3-3.6
20149-47-1#48+3.0+4.6-1.6

Cincinnati's past seasons use the same rating model as this one. Click a season to see its full page.

Updated Oct 21, 10:45 AM ET. Ratings are in points on a neutral field. Projected lines include — points of home field. Win chances and record odds allow for the ratings themselves being uncertain, most of all early in the season. All FBS power rankings →